I was making my daily rounds at the pollster sites today. Surprisingly, the West Virginia Senate race might be closer than we a thought, with Raese taking the lead from Manchin for the first time.
Z. Byron Wolf had an interesting analysis on this.
He is a popular Democratic governor – one of the most popular governors in the country. He’s got a better than 50 percent approval rating. His positions on social positions – pro life, for instance – track well with the makeup of his state. And he’s got supporters in traditionally Republican ranks. Just Monday the US Chamber of Commerce, which usually endorses Republicans, gave him its backing.
Here’s why this could be a bad year for Manchin: He is a Democrat.
Democrats are bound to lose seats in the Senate, as with tradition that the President's party loses seat in his first midterm elections. Based off today's poll, it's safe to say this race is a toss-up, and it's going to be close for whoever wins. West Virginia is a pretty conservative state nationally, voting for 55-42 for John McCain. So far, West Virginia is sounding like a pretty Republican state, but this isn't the case at all. Gallup shows party affiliation among Republicans in West Virginia at 33.9%, and Democrats at 52.8%.
The state consistently votes Republican in general elections, yet there is such a large majority of Democratic voters, many happen to be conservative.
If Manchin wants to win in November, it might be best for him to touch on, and I cringe as I say this, his moderate views, or at least prove that he's able to reach across the aisle- I'll take a DINO over a Republican any day.
As governor, he garnered 44% of Republican approval in his state, and currently, he is one of the most popular Democratic governors in the country. If he keeps up his current reputation, Manchin can and will win this race, provided that enough Democrats are convinced to vote with their party. Getting his poll numbers back up may not be as difficult as it seems.