This is an update to my September 10 diary documenting the collective House race ratings by the professional forecasters and using them to create composite vulnerability rankings. I also used a comparison of the final ratings and the actual results from 2006 to 2008 to figure odds on a given race with a given score actually flipping. The methodology is explained in the last post. As I alluded to in the last post, the migration of these ratings continues to drift in the GOP direction, with CQ making about 15 changes favoring the GOP, and the others a handful as well. Thus, as of today, the predictive model forecasts a net loss of 32.08 seats. This is still 7 short of what the GOP would need for a majority.
This, however, is still subject to change over the next 6 weeks. Indeed, if the changes in the ratings that occurred between 9/10 and 9/17 were to be replicated each week, the projected loss number would grow to 50. Two points on the plus side: 1. there are signs that the national GOP momentum may have stalled; and 2. the GOP does not appear to be expanding the scope of seats in play, just increasing the odds of winning the seats that are in play. There are certainly enough seats in play for a GOP takeover, but to do so, the GOP would still need to win a slightly higher percentage of the seats in play than did the Dems in 2006 or 2008.
In 2006, when the Dems hit +30, they had 41 GOP seats with scores of at least 155 (and 1 Dem seat in that category), meaning all prognosticators said at least lean, and at least one said tossup. The Dems converted on 27 of the 41 (66%), picked up 3 more longshots and held every one of their own seats.
In 2008, there were 40 GOP and 8 Dem seats in that range. The Dems won 25 of the 40 (63%); the GOP won back 4 of 8 (50%), and the Dems picked up 1 additional longshot.
This year, as of right now, there are 56 D seats and 5 GOP seats in the danger range. Assuming the GOP nets 3 longshot races, they still need to win 41 of these 61 seats (67%).
Further, 42 of the 56 D seats and 3 of the 5 R seats are still considered tossups or lean holds (scores of 155-255). While many of these seats will flip, nowhere near all will; in 2006 and 2008 combined, the Dems won 26 of 55 GOP seats in this range (47%); the GOP won 3 of 8 Dem seats in this range (37.5%). Thus, the sure-thing gains those years came in seats ranked as lean or likely takeover heading into the election: 9 for 9 in such seats in 2006 and 15 of 16 in 2008 (with the lone D seat in this highest vulnerability range flipping as well). Currently, the Dems have only 14 seats in this "goner" range, and the GOP has two (DE-AL and LA-02) of their own. Assuming all flip, that gives the GOP only a net of 12 going into the tossups--meaning that they need to come up with a net of 27 from the lower-down seats on the list. Again, doable but tough. Anyway, here are the seats (now with the most recent candidate financial disclosures):
Dem Seats
1. AR-02 (Overall Rank: 1). PVI: R+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 365. Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover. D: J.Elliott (Raised: $490K; CoH: $106K). R: T.Griffin (Raised: $955K; CoH: $316K).
2. TN-06 (Overall Rank: 2). PVI: R+11. Total Vulnerability Score: 360. Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover. D: B.Carter (Raised: $119K; CoH: $100K). R: D.Black (Raised: $836K; CoH: $197K).
3. LA-03 (Overall Rank: 3). PVI: R+10. Total Vulnerability Score: 360. Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover. D: R.Sangisetty (Raised: $611K; CoH: $248K). R: H.Downer (Raised: $604K; CoH: $63K).
4. NY-29 (Overall Rank: 4). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 360. Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover. D: M.Zeller (Raised: $232K; CoH: $50K). R: T.Reed (Raised: $809K; CoH: $361K).
5. KS-03 (Overall Rank: 7). PVI: R+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 315. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: S.Moore (Raised: $362K; CoH: $237K). R: K.Yoder (Raised: $840K; CoH: $510K).
6. IN-08 (Overall Rank: 8). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 300. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: T.Van Haaften (Raised: $473K; CoH: $360K). R: L.Bucshon (Raised: $493K; CoH: $207K).
7. CO-04 (Overall Rank: 9). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 285. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: B.Markey* (Raised: $2259K; CoH: $1508K). R: C.Gardner (Raised: $1308K; CoH: $735K).
8. FL-24 (Overall Rank: 10). PVI: R+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 285. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: S.Kosmas* (Raised: $1844K; CoH: $1284K). R: S.Adams (Raised: $392K; CoH: $115K).
9. OH-15 (Overall Rank: 11). PVI: E. Total Vulnerability Score: 285. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: M.Kilroy* (Raised: $1667K; CoH: $934K). R: S.Stivers (Raised: $1517K; CoH: $1243K).
10. OH-01 (Overall Rank: 12). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 285. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: S.Driehaus* (Raised: $1410K; CoH: $973K). R: S.Chabot (Raised: $1265K; CoH: $1007K).
11. TN-08 (Overall Rank: 13). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 270. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: R.Herron (Raised: $1563K; CoH: $1186K). R: S.Fincher (Raised: $1518K; CoH: $421K).
12. MD-01 (Overall Rank: 14). PVI: R+12. Total Vulnerability Score: 265. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: F.Kratovil* (Raised: $1854K; CoH: $1346K). R: A.Harris (Raised: $1544K; CoH: $944K).
13. IL-11 (Overall Rank: 15). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 265. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: D.Halvorson* (Raised: $1973K; CoH: $1443K). R: A.Kinzinger (Raised: $1072K; CoH: $480K).
14. NH-02 (Overall Rank: 16). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 258. Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean R Takeover. D: A.Kuster (Raised: $1381K; CoH: $450K). R: C.Bass (Raised: $538K; CoH: $312K).
15. AR-01 (Overall Rank: 17). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 255. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: C.Causey (Raised: $754K; CoH: $91K). R: R.Crawford (Raised: $435K; CoH: $214K).
16. TX-17 (Overall Rank: 18). PVI: R+18. Total Vulnerability Score: 250. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: C.Edwards* (Raised: $2619K; CoH: $2145K). R: B.Flores (Raised: $1616K; CoH: $415K).
17. NM-02 (Overall Rank: 19). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 250. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: H.Teague* (Raised: $1514K; CoH: $1169K). R: S.Pearce (Raised: $1502K; CoH: $1024K).
18. VA-05 (Overall Rank: 20). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 248. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: T.Perriello* (Raised: $2301K; CoH: $1723K). R: R.Hurt (Raised: $771K; CoH: $216K).
19. WA-03 (Overall Rank: 21). PVI: E. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: D.Heck (Raised: $1001K; CoH: $708K). R: J.Herrera (Raised: $411K; CoH: $114K).
20. MS-01 (Overall Rank: 22). PVI: R+13. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: T.Childers* (Raised: $1321K; CoH: $903K). R: A.Nunnelee (Raised: $899K; CoH: $233K).
21. ND-AL (Overall Rank: 23). PVI: R+10. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: E.Pomeroy* (Raised: $2210K; CoH: $1669K). R: R.Berg (Raised: $1045K; CoH: $752K).
22. NH-01 (Overall Rank: 25). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: C.Shea-Porter* (Raised: $997K; CoH: $529K). R: F.Guinta (Raised: $911K; CoH: $158K).
23. MI-01 (Overall Rank: 26). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: G.McDowell (Raised: $147K; CoH: $132K). R: D.Benishek (Raised: $449K; CoH: $131K).
24. VA-02 (Overall Rank: 27). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: G.Nye* (Raised: $1787K; CoH: $1270K). R: S.Rigell (Raised: $1654K; CoH: $227K).
25. FL-02 (Overall Rank: 28). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: A.Boyd* (Raised: $1782K; CoH: $762K). R: W.Southerland (Raised: $401K; CoH: $85K).
26. PA-03 (Overall Rank: 29). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: K.Dahlkemper* (Raised: $1520K; CoH: $1015K). R: G.Kelly (Raised: $547K; CoH: $104K).
27. AZ-01 (Overall Rank: 30). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: A.Kirkpatrick* (Raised: $1427K; CoH: $870K). R: P.Gosar (Raised: $414K; CoH: $41K).
28. FL-08 (Overall Rank: 31). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: A.Grayson* (Raised: $3719K; CoH: $1369K). R: D.Webster (Raised: $326K; CoH: $105K).
29. NV-03 (Overall Rank: 32). PVI: D+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: D.Titus* (Raised: $1672K; CoH: $1205K). R: J.Heck (Raised: $604K; CoH: $362K).
30. PA-11 (Overall Rank: 33). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: P.Kanjorski* (Raised: $1357K; CoH: $1058K). R: L.Barletta (Raised: $568K; CoH: $237K).
31. WV-01 (Overall Rank: 34). PVI: R+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: M.Oliverio (Raised: $832K; CoH: $303K). R: D.McKinley (Raised: $967K; CoH: $307K).
32. WI-07 (Overall Rank: 36). PVI: D+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Lassa (Raised: $548K; CoH: $403K). R: S.Duffy (Raised: $1205K; CoH: $694K).
33. PA-07 (Overall Rank: 37). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: B.Lentz (Raised: $1028K; CoH: $786K). R: P.Meehan (Raised: $1645K; CoH: $1124K).
34. SC-05 (Overall Rank: 38). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Spratt* (Raised: $1066K; CoH: $1201K). R: M.Mulvaney (Raised: $617K; CoH: $471K).
35. IN-09 (Overall Rank: 39). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: B.Hill* (Raised: $1427K; CoH: $1109K). R: T.Young (Raised: $845K; CoH: $260K).
36. OH-16 (Overall Rank: 40). PVI: R+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Boccieri* (Raised: $1373K; CoH: $1061K). R: J.Renacci (Raised: $1384K; CoH: $663K).
37. MI-07 (Overall Rank: 41). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: M.Schauer* (Raised: $2244K; CoH: $1653K). R: T.Walberg (Raised: $742K; CoH: $244K).
38. NY-24 (Overall Rank: 42). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: M.Arcuri* (Raised: $1277K; CoH: $601K). R: R.Hanna (Raised: $779K; CoH: $500K).
39. SD-AL (Overall Rank: 43). PVI: R+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 212. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: S.Herseth Sandlin* (Raised: $1118K; CoH: $707K). R: K.Noem (Raised: $577K; CoH: $292K).
40. IL-14 (Overall Rank: 44). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 212. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: B.Foster* (Raised: $2273K; CoH: $1549K). R: R.Hultgren (Raised: $778K; CoH: $245K).
41. AZ-05 (Overall Rank: 45). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 205. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: H.Mitchell* (Raised: $1519K; CoH: $836K). R: D.Schweikert (Raised: $668K; CoH: $226K).
42. NY-19 (Overall Rank: 46). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 197. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Hall* (Raised: $1257K; CoH: $504K). R: N.Hayworth (Raised: $1369K; CoH: $563K).
43. IA-03 (Overall Rank: 47). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 190. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: L.Boswell* (Raised: $993K; CoH: $734K). R: B.Zaun (Raised: $240K; CoH: $100K).
44. WI-08 (Overall Rank: 48). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 182. Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean D Hold. D: S.Kagen* (Raised: $1344K; CoH: $777K). R: R.Ribble (Raised: $507K; CoH: $71K).
45. PA-10 (Overall Rank: 49). PVI: R+8. Total Vulnerability Score: 177. Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean D Hold. D: C.Carney* (Raised: $1169K; CoH: $793K). R: T.Marino (Raised: $233K; CoH: $11K).
46. GA-08 (Overall Rank: 50). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 177. Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean D Hold. D: J.Marshall* (Raised: $824K; CoH: $985K). R: A.Scott (Raised: $251K; CoH: $213K).
47. CO-03 (Overall Rank: 51). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 175. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: J.Salazar* (Raised: $1225K; CoH: $1258K). R: S.Tipton (Raised: $380K; CoH: $167K).
48. PA-08 (Overall Rank: 52). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 175. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: P.Murphy* (Raised: $2663K; CoH: $1775K). R: M.Fitzpatrick (Raised: $926K; CoH: $664K).
49. AL-02 (Overall Rank: 53). PVI: R+16. Total Vulnerability Score: 170. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: B.Bright* (Raised: $1102K; CoH: $734K). R: M.Roby (Raised: $569K; CoH: $121K).
50. NC-08 (Overall Rank: 54). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 170. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: L.Kissell* (Raised: $704K; CoH: $293K). R: H.Johnson (Raised: $482K; CoH: $82K).
51. CA-11 (Overall Rank: 55). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 162. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: J.McNerney* (Raised: $1698K; CoH: $1247K). R: D.Harmer (Raised: $1816K; CoH: $233K).
52. IN-02 (Overall Rank: 56). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 160. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: J.Donnelly* (Raised: $1205K; CoH: $989K). R: J.Walorski (Raised: $565K; CoH: $303K).
53. ID-01 (Overall Rank: 57). PVI: R+18. Total Vulnerability Score: 155. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: W.Minnick* (Raised: $1813K; CoH: $1139K). R: R.Labrador (Raised: $286K; CoH: $69K).
54. OH-18 (Overall Rank: 58). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 155. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: Z.Space* (Raised: $1945K; CoH: $1268K). R: B.Gibbs (Raised: $570K; CoH: $210K).
55. TX-23 (Overall Rank: 59). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 155. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: C.Rodriguez* (Raised: $1147K; CoH: $702K). R: F.Canseco (Raised: $1008K; CoH: $453K).
56. AZ-08 (Overall Rank: 60). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 155. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: G.Giffords* (Raised: $2364K; CoH: $1923K). R: J.Kelly (Raised: $568K; CoH: $79K).
57. MO-04 (Overall Rank: 63). PVI: R+14. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: I.Skelton* (Raised: $1941K; CoH: $1370K). R: V.Hartzler (Raised: $498K; CoH: $242K).
58. VA-09 (Overall Rank: 64). PVI: R+10. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: R.Boucher* (Raised: $1537K; CoH: $2010K). R: M.Griffith (Raised: $403K; CoH: $297K).
59. KY-06 (Overall Rank: 65). PVI: R+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: B.Chandler* (Raised: $906K; CoH: $1749K). R: A.Barr (Raised: $812K; CoH: $361K).
60. PA-12 (Overall Rank: 66). PVI: E. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: M.Critz* (Raised: $1490K; CoH: $166K). R: T.Burns (Raised: $1827K; CoH: $163K).
61. NJ-03 (Overall Rank: 67). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: J.Adler* (Raised: $2456K; CoH: $1947K). R: J.Runyan (Raised: $654K; CoH: $472K).
62. NM-01 (Overall Rank: 68). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: M.Heinrich* (Raised: $1806K; CoH: $1302K). R: J.Barela (Raised: $770K; CoH: $537K).
63. OH-13 (Overall Rank: 69). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: B.Sutton* (Raised: $930K; CoH: $593K). R: T.Ganley (Raised: $6669K; CoH: $2691K).
64. IL-17 (Overall Rank: 70). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 132. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: P.Hare* (Raised: $844K; CoH: $856K). R: B.Schilling (Raised: $301K; CoH: $211K).
65. MA-10 (Overall Rank: 71). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: B.Keating (Raised: $656K; CoH: $364K). R: J.Perry (Raised: $517K; CoH: $128K).
66. TN-04 (Overall Rank: 72). PVI: R+12. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold. D: L.Davis* (Raised: $789K; CoH: $472K). R: S.DesJarlais (Raised: $322K; CoH: $24K).
67. NY-20 (Overall Rank: 74). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: S.Murphy* (Raised: $4407K; CoH: $1453K). R: C.Gibson (Raised: $854K; CoH: $327K).
68. NY-23 (Overall Rank: 75). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: B.Owens* (Raised: $2233K; CoH: $600K). R: D.Hoffman/ M.Doheny (Raised: $0K; CoH: $0K).
69. NY-01 (Overall Rank: 76). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: T.Bishop* (Raised: $1886K; CoH: $1539K). R: R.Altschuler (Raised: $2890K; CoH: $1301K).
70. GA-02 (Overall Rank: 77). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 112. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. D: S.Bishop* (Raised: $674K; CoH: $405K). R: M.Keown (Raised: $491K; CoH: $238K).
71. MI-09 (Overall Rank: 79). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. D: G.Peters* (Raised: $2331K; CoH: $1928K). R: A.Raczkowski (Raised: $841K; CoH: $215K).
72. VA-11 (Overall Rank: 80). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. D: G.Connolly* (Raised: $1740K; CoH: $1274K). R: K.Fimian (Raised: $1175K; CoH: $272K).
73. OR-05 (Overall Rank: 81). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. D: K.Schrader* (Raised: $1219K; CoH: $915K). R: S.Bruun (Raised: $471K; CoH: $178K).
74. FL-22 (Overall Rank: 82). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. D: R.Klein* (Raised: $2514K; CoH: $2841K). R: A.West (Raised: $4009K; CoH: $2249K).
75. CA-47 (Overall Rank: 83). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. D: Lo.Sanchez* (Raised: $1313K; CoH: $1268K). R: V.Tran (Raised: $729K; CoH: $288K).
76. WA-02 (Overall Rank: 84). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 105. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: R.Larsen* (Raised: $1116K; CoH: $864K). R: J.Koster (Raised: $424K; CoH: $127K).
77. NY-13 (Overall Rank: 85). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 95. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: M.McMahon* (Raised: $2113K; CoH: $1097K). R: M.Grimm (Raised: $796K; CoH: $385K).
78. PA-17 (Overall Rank: 86). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: T.Holden* (Raised: $939K; CoH: $884K). R: D.Argall (Raised: $205K; CoH: $29K).
79. KY-03 (Overall Rank: 88). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: J.Yarmuth* (Raised: $997K; CoH: $600K). R: T.Lally (Raised: $380K; CoH: $269K).
80. NY-25 (Overall Rank: 89). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: D.Maffei* (Raised: $2273K; CoH: $1160K). R: A.Buerkle (Raised: $340K; CoH: $182K).
81. CT-04 (Overall Rank: 90). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: J.Himes* (Raised: $2643K; CoH: $1887K). R: D.Debicella (Raised: $820K; CoH: $493K).
82. MN-01 (Overall Rank: 92). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: T.Walz* (Raised: $1457K; CoH: $832K). R: R.Demmer (Raised: $419K; CoH: $222K).
83. CT-05 (Overall Rank: 93). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: C.Murphy* (Raised: $2089K; CoH: $1491K). R: S.Caliguri (Raised: $593K; CoH: $80K).
84. CO-07 (Overall Rank: 94). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: E.Perlmutter* (Raised: $1539K; CoH: $1283K). R: R.Frazier (Raised: $876K; CoH: $252K).
85. WI-03 (Overall Rank: 95). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: R.Kind* (Raised: $1216K; CoH: $1273K). R: D.Kapanke (Raised: $685K; CoH: $322K).
86. NC-11 (Overall Rank: 97). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: H.Shuler* (Raised: $880K; CoH: $1429K). R: J.Miller (Raised: $276K; CoH: $65K).
87. PA-04 (Overall Rank: 98). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: J.Altmire* (Raised: $1931K; CoH: $1466K). R: K.Rothfus (Raised: $563K; CoH: $202K).
88. WV-03 (Overall Rank: 99). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: N.Rahall* (Raised: $809K; CoH: $1588K). R: E.Maynard (Raised: $186K; CoH: $115K).
89. IL-08 (Overall Rank: 103). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: M.Bean* (Raised: $1628K; CoH: $1171K). R: J.Walsh (Raised: $317K; CoH: $30K).
90. OH-06 (Overall Rank: 104). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: C.Wilson* (Raised: $594K; CoH: $608K). R: B.Johnson (Raised: $305K; CoH: $148K).
91. CA-18 (Overall Rank: 105). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: D.Cardoza* (Raised: $807K; CoH: $575K). R: M.Berryhill (Raised: $790K; CoH: $131K).
92. RI-01 (Overall Rank: 107). PVI: D+14. Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: D.Ciccilline (Raised: $1356K; CoH: $446K). R: J.Loughlin (Raised: $470K; CoH: $67K).
93. AR-04 (Overall Rank: 109). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 35. Consensus Rating: . D: M.Ross* (Raised: $1561K; CoH: $1148K). R: B.Rankin (Raised: $147K; CoH: $69K).
94. GA-12 (Overall Rank: 110). PVI: D+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 35. Consensus Rating: . D: J.Barrow* (Raised: $1345K; CoH: $655K). R: R.McKinney (Raised: $135K; CoH: $77K).
95. IA-01 (Overall Rank: 111). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 35. Consensus Rating: . D: B.Braley* (Raised: $1067K; CoH: $632K). R: B.Lange (Raised: $168K; CoH: $110K).
96. NC-07 (Overall Rank: 112). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Consensus Rating: . D: M.McIntyre* (Raised: $722K; CoH: $842K). R: I.Pantano (Raised: $321K; CoH: $99K).
97. NC-02 (Overall Rank: 113). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Consensus Rating: . D: B.Etheridge* (Raised: $909K; CoH: $1208K). R: R.Ellmers (Raised: $188K; CoH: $46K).
98. CA-20 (Overall Rank: 114). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Consensus Rating: . D: J.Costa* (Raised: $854K; CoH: $337K). R: J.Vidak (Raised: $231K; CoH: $48K).
99. OR-01 (Overall Rank: 115). PVI: D+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Consensus Rating: . D: D.Wu* (Raised: $973K; CoH: $627K). R: R.Cornilles (Raised: $607K; CoH: $256K).
100. UT-02 (Overall Rank: 117). PVI: R+15. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: J.Matheson* (Raised: $1358K; CoH: $1041K). R: M.Philpot (Raised: $112K; CoH: $58K).
101. NJ-12 (Overall Rank: 119). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: R.Holt* (Raised: $1193K; CoH: $1061K). R: S.Sipprelle (Raised: $830K; CoH: $490K).
102. IA-02 (Overall Rank: 120). PVI: D+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: D.Loebsack* (Raised: $643K; CoH: $524K). R: M.Miller-Meeks (Raised: $318K; CoH: $104K).
103. ME-01 (Overall Rank: 121). PVI: D+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: C.Pingree* (Raised: $670K; CoH: $361K). R: D.Scontras (Raised: $152K; CoH: $67K).
104. NY-04 (Overall Rank: 122). PVI: D+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: C.McCarthy* (Raised: $1344K; CoH: $771K). R: F.Becker (Raised: $88K; CoH: $25K).
105. MO-03 (Overall Rank: 123). PVI: D+8. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: R.Carnahan* (Raised: $1218K; CoH: $666K). R: E.Martin (Raised: $835K; CoH: $582K).
GOP Seats
1. LA-02 (Overall Rank: 5). PVI: D+25. Total Vulnerability Score: 315. Consensus Rating: Lean D Takeover. D: C.Richmond (Raised: $507K; CoH: $166K). R: J.Cao* (Raised: $1462K; CoH: $301K).
2. DE-AL (Overall Rank: 6). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 315. Consensus Rating: Lean D Takeover. D: J.Carney (Raised: $1502K; CoH: $904K). R: G.Urquhart (Raised: $708K; CoH: $194K).
3. HI-01 (Overall Rank: 24). PVI: D+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: C.Hanabusa (Raised: $1704K; CoH: $410K). R: C.Djou* (Raised: $1683K; CoH: $428K).
4. IL-10 (Overall Rank: 35). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: D.Seals (Raised: $1694K; CoH: $792K). R: R.Dold (Raised: $1499K; CoH: $748K).
5. CA-03 (Overall Rank: 61). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 155. Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold. D: A.Bera (Raised: $1630K; CoH: $1140K). R: D.Lungren* (Raised: $1220K; CoH: $802K).
6. FL-25 (Overall Rank: 62). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold. D: J.Garcia (Raised: $871K; CoH: $568K). R: D.Rivera (Raised: $1330K; CoH: $1156K).
7. PA-15 (Overall Rank: 73). PVI: D+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold. D: J.Callahan (Raised: $1407K; CoH: $989K). R: C.Dent* (Raised: $1743K; CoH: $1043K).
8. WA-08 (Overall Rank: 78). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely R Hold. D: S.Del Bene (Raised: $1698K; CoH: $916K). R: D.Reichert* (Raised: $1818K; CoH: $1006K).
9. PA-06 (Overall Rank: 87). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: M.Trivedi (Raised: $836K; CoH: $329K). R: J.Gerlach* (Raised: $1373K; CoH: $541K).
10. NE-02 (Overall Rank: 91). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: T.White (Raised: $675K; CoH: $532K). R: L.Terry* (Raised: $1305K; CoH: $787K).
11. MN-06 (Overall Rank: 96). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: T.Clark (Raised: $2412K; CoH: $798K). R: M.Bachmann* (Raised: $4585K; CoH: $2406K).
12. OH-12 (Overall Rank: 100). PVI: E. Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: P.Brooks (Raised: $994K; CoH: $683K). R: P.Tiberi* (Raised: $2118K; CoH: $1902K).
13. CA-45 (Overall Rank: 101). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: S.Pougnet (Raised: $1268K; CoH: $878K). R: M.Bono-Mack* (Raised: $1732K; CoH: $1242K).
14. AZ-03 (Overall Rank: 102). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: J.Hulburd (Raised: $778K; CoH: $428K). R: B.Quayle (Raised: $1344K; CoH: $429K).
15. FL-12 (Overall Rank: 106). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: L.Edwards (Raised: $346K; CoH: $103K). R: D.Ross (Raised: $811K; CoH: $403K).
16. AL-05 (Overall Rank: 108). PVI: R+11. Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: S.Raby (Raised: $458K; CoH: $111K). R: M.Brooks (Raised: $447K; CoH: $259K).
17. MI-03 (Overall Rank: 116). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: P.Miles (Raised: $318K; CoH: $227K). R: J.Amash (Raised: $379K; CoH: $112K).
18. CA-44 (Overall Rank: 118). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: B.Hedrick (Raised: $368K; CoH: $149K). R: K.Calvert* (Raised: $1369K; CoH: $681K).