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These are all the key races worth watching in Illinois and Missouri for the elections coming up in the midterms. The Illinois race for Senator is an ugly fight and the Governor's race has changed hands.

Today's polling from Suffolk and Chicago Tribune/WGN for Illinois Came out showing that Brady (R/TP) has coughed up the football to Pat Quinn (D). I knew it would happen in October.

IL-Sen/Gov from Suffolk:

BOSTON – With barely four weeks left in the 2010 election cycle, Democrat Pat Quinn (43 percent) has opened up a six point lead over Republican Bill Brady (37 percent) in the Illinois race for governor, according to the latest Suffolk University poll. Independent Scott Lee Cohen has 7 percent, Green Party candidate Rich Whitney polls 3 percent, and Libertarian Lex Green gets 1 percent, while just 8 percent remain undecided.

Meanwhile, it’s nearly a dead heat in the race for the U.S. Senate. Republican Mark Kirk (42 percent) edges Democrat Alexi Giannoulias (41 percent), though the race is well within the statistical margin of error. Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones has 4 percent, followed by Libertarian Mike Labno, with 3 percent. There are 10 percent still undecided.

"Pat Quinn’s TV ads have put Bill Brady under a microscope and are shifting voters’ focus away from Quinn’s slow progress in dealing with the mess he inherited from Governor Rod Blagojevich," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Boston’s Suffolk University. "Quinn’s efforts to focus voters on Brady’s negatives are designed to make Quinn look better in comparison, while solidifying his base of support."

Quinn’s margins over Brady among ages 18-44 years (+25 points), Cook County voters (+30 points), and minority voters (+38 points) are the driving forces behind the Democrat’s edge in the statewide numbers.

Blagojevich was impeached and removed from office amid a federal probe into his alleged ‘pay-to-play’ political practices, which allegedly included an attempt to sell an appointment to the U.S. Senate seat previously held by Barack Obama.


The back-and-forth of the IL-Sen race is interesting. Mark Kirk, who lied about his military record (mentioned in an earlier Kos blog by me), is slugging evenly with Alexi Giannoulias, who has his own baggage. But for the state, I believe Giannoulias will pull ahead, as Kirk's asskissing to Republicans has caught on to the voters.

From MarkKirkFacts' YouTube

From AlexiforIllinois' YouTube:

Issue of trust for Giannoulias, Kirk
With 17% of voters undecided, U.S. Senate race is still a toss-up, Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows

The trust factor could well determine the tight U.S. Senate race between Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk with a month left in an attack-driven campaign, a new Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll found.

Giannoulias held a 38 percent to 36 percent advantage over Kirk, but that result falls within the poll's 4-percentage-point margin of error. Another 17 percent were undecided, offering ample opportunity in a contest where both sides are trying to sway voters with millions of dollars in negative TV ads assailing the character and veracity of the other guy. Two largely unknown minor-party candidates lagged behind.

A month ago, a Tribune poll found the race tied at 34 percent, with 22 percent undecided.

Since then, the two major-party contenders have tried to exploit campaign fodder each has provided the other in spades. Kirk has acknowledged embellishing parts of his military record as a Naval Reserve intelligence officer. Giannoulias was a senior loan officer at his family's failed bank when loans were given to convicted felons.

The survey of 600 registered likely voters conducted Sept. 24-28 also found Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones getting 5 percent support, while Libertarian candidate Mike Labno received backing from 3 percent.

Chicago Tribune: Giannoulias leads 38-36.

Quinn gains on Brady in new Tribune poll
Governor leads Republican 39% to 38% compared with Brady's 4-percentage point lead of a month ago

Republican Bill Brady's early advantage in the Illinois governor race has evaporated as voters have gotten to know him a bit better and grown to like Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn a bit more, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll found.

Quinn has hammered his lesser-known downstate opponent with TV attack ads asking "Who is this guy?" and the poll indicates the strategy is paying dividends. Quinn scored 39 percent to 38 percent for Brady. The poll's 4-percentage-point margin of error means the race is neck and neck with little more than a month left before the Nov. 2 election.

A pre- Labor Day Tribune survey had Brady leading Quinn 37 percent to 32 percent. But in the last four weeks, Quinn's abysmal job approval rating improved a little, and voters view him slightly more favorably than a month ago. And the governor is attracting more support from traditionally key sources of Democratic vote, particularly in Chicago and among African-American voters.

On the other hand, Brady's numbers flipped and he is now liked and disliked by about the same percentage of voters, though more than a third say they still haven't formed an opinion about the veteran state senator. Brady, who hails from a prominent Bloomington homebuilding family, continues to trounce Quinn downstate, though his lead in the collar counties has disappeared.

The other three governor candidates aren't attracting much support so far, according to the survey of 600 registered likely voters conducted last Friday through Tuesday. Independent Scott Lee Cohen, who won the Democratic lieutenant governor nomination in February before dropping out amid damaging personal disclosures, scored 4 percent. Green Party candidate Rich Whitney polled 3 percent and Libertarian candidate Lex Green had 2 percent.

Tribune polling: Brady Blows Lead, Quinn Makes A Miraculous Comeback

From WhoIsBillBrady's YouTube:

From ce313's youtube:

From CapitolFax's YouTube:

IL-11: Debbie Halvorson (D), Adam Kinzinger (R)
Looks like Halvorson's in trouble in the polls so far. I hope she comes back and wins.

Republicans would seem to be in a strong position to knockoff a freshman Democrat in this seat given that President Barack Obama won it with only 53 percent of the vote.

Republicans nominated Iraq War veteran Adam Kinzinger and national Republicans began the cycle with great enthusiasm for their candidate. But the Kinzinger campaign was slow to develop. Despite having an early primary and a long campaign season to demonsrate strength, Kinzinger only achieved the ‘Young Guns’ standing awarded by party leaders to top candidates in June, and his fundraising continues to lag far behind that of Halvorson. Money matters in this district, which includes parts of the Chicago media market.

Still, the national environment is providing Kinzinger with a lift and he’s found energy in the tea party movement, as well. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed him in August. Polling in the district has continued to show Kinzinger with a solid lead over Halvorson.

CQ: Halvorson in Trouble

IL-10: Mark Kirk (R)'s seat. Dan Seals (D), Bob Dold (R), Richard Mayers (G)

Kirk — one of the more centrist Republicans over his five terms in the House — is leaving the suburban 10th District open in 2010, as he runs for the Senate seat held by Democrat Barack Obama until his election as president. And while Kirk’s bid was highly sought by the Republicans’ Senate campaign recruiters, it presents a big problem for the party’s House campaign strategists.

After repeatedly challenging Kirk but failing to oust him, the Democrats now have a serious opportunity – even in what’s shaping up as a difficult national political environment – to capture the seat in the 10th District. That is because the district, anchored in mostly upscale suburbs north of Chicago, was one of just six to vote Democratic for president in both 2004 and 2008.

The North Shore suburban Chicago seat is one of the most competitive in the state. Kirk held on to the seat for five terms, even though Democratic presidential candidates have won it handily. President Obama won the district with 61 percent in 2008.
CQ Politics: Seals and Dold duke it out for Kirk's seat

IL-12: Jerry Costello (D), Teri Davis Newman (R), Rodger Jennings (G)
Jerry Costello, whose district includes Alton, Granite City (where I live), Belleville, East St. Louis, Chester, Carbondale, Marion, and Cairo, is the certain winner.

Now, over to Missouri:
MO-Sen: Republican-mussen has purposefully ignored the 2 more conservative candidates (Jerry Beck and Johnathan Dine), mostly to protect Blunt.
Beck CST 4.0%, Blunt R 45.0%, Carnahan D 41.0%, Dine L 2.0% (Hart Research [D])

From LefTNetwork's YouTube:

From RobinCarnahan's YouTube: Blunt is the most corrupt man in office.

MO-03: Ed Martin (R/TP), Russ Carnahan (D)
The race is safe for Carnahan, but I wouldn't be surprised if Ed Martin's thugs will try to steal the elections for him. Martin has also been endorsed by the STL Teabaggers Hate Cabal.

MO-04: Ike Skelton (D/DINO), Vicky Hartzler (R/TP)
Ike Skelton, who voted NO to the Health Care Reform and to DADT, is facing off against Teabagger Vicky Hartzler in the fight for his life.

After years and years of conceding this Republican-leaning swath of western and west-central Missouri to Skelton landslides, Republicans are actually waging a serious campaign to unseat the chairman of the Armed Services Committee, now in his 34th year in the House.

Former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler, who has strong ties to social-issue conservatives, won the Republican primary.

CQ: DINO Skelton still favored, but Hartzler may end his reign or come close

MO-08: Tommy Sowers (D), Jo Ann Emerson (R)
In Rush Limbaugh's district, Jo Ann Emerson has gone basically unchallenged. But Sowers may pick off some of the disaffected supporters of Emerson due to her support for the bailouts.

It is less than a month til Midterms. So any and all Progressives/Liberals in Illinois and Missouri should come out to vote, campaign, or volunteer!

Originally posted to JGibson on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 11:47 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  That "Brady Bunch" ad ... (4+ / 0-)

    ... is gold I tell ya!  Gold!  Hahaha.  It gets my vote for best political ad of the season.    

    "Obama, Obama, I love ya, Obama; you're only November away" -- cute ginger kid

    by Tortmaster on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 11:54:31 PM PDT

  •  Skelton is no DINO. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Randall Sherman, Stranded Wind

    "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau

    by James Allen on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 11:59:17 PM PDT

  •  sent in my MO ballot a couple of days ago (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, oceanview

    was proud to vote for Robin and my local Dems.  Mad that the Dems didn't put up anyone to oppose in MO-9.

  •  Great diary, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oceanview, agnostic

    JGibson.  The ads are effective.  Quinn's charisma deficit and the state budget deficit had made his chances of victory appear slim.  The informational ads exposing Brady's wingnutery are achieving their desired effect and may well lead to a Quinn win.  I have always been more optimistic about Giannoulias's chances.  The large group of undecided voters are overwhelmingly voters who traditionally support the Democrats, so I would not be surprised if ultimately Giannoulias wins more decisively than Quinn does.

    Thanks for the sharing the ads and commentary.

  •  Thanks for such a great diary. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, oceanview

    As a fairly new transplant to IL from MO-08, I really appreciated your point of view. I'm still a little perplexed with IL politics, MO was easy, especially in District 08. It will always go red, those people are brainwashed to the hilt. Best of luck to Sowers, but he will not win. My new area in IL is very diverse, yet the local all goes red. I'm quite disappointed in that, but there's great potential here. I hope Quinn points out the extremist Brady's view on the minimum wage. How anyone could vote for that is beyond me. I'm looking forward to working hard to get this area from solid red to at least purple!

    •  I wish Sowers would have mentioned (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      how Emerson voted against the stimulus, but then took the credit and the glory for the good that it did in the district. I tried and tried to no avail to get my local paper to publish a correction to their totally fact free puff piece on the whole deal. They wouldn't publish my letter to the Editor and my comments were stricken from the comment board. My back and forth with the writer of the article didn't do anything except get her in a bit of trouble with her employer. It was impossible to work toward defeating Emerson when the local media stiffled all attempts to point out the truth. Needless to say, I don't miss that area one bit.

    •  Perplexed, My Name Isnt Earl? (0+ / 0-)

      You could be living uop here in Chicago (since you noted that your local races go red I know that is not the case).  Here we face having to decide on more than 60 Retention Judges.  Meanwhile the key local race is the Cook county Assessor's race between the Cook county Democratic Chairman (Board of Review Commissioner Joseph Berrios) and Dem-turned independent County Commissioner Forest Claypool (a former Chief of Staff to Mayor "DINO" Daley).  Of course all of the races here, including the contests for Governor and US Senate, are being overshadowed by the early moves in the Chicago Mayoral contest that will be held on Feb. 22 (with an expected runoff in early April).

      Pity those candidates trying to get attention forthe elections that are now just four weeks away.  Its bad enough that seemingly half of the newscasts on TV here are devoted to "Da Bears" (which doesn't help any candidates, with the possible exception of Supremem Court Justice Robert Thomas, who is seeking retention in the collar county-Northern Illinois 2nd District; Thomas owes his seat on the court to the name recognition he earned as the kicker for "Da Bears").

  •  I'm in Illinois and have been getting a lot (4+ / 0-)

    calls from union members making sure I'm aware that Brady hired all non-union for his real estate development biz.  I am, and I would never vote for Brady in a million years.  He's an extremist across the board, with outrageous policy positions and anti womens' issues his whole bleak political career.

  •  I love to read diaries like this (0+ / 0-)

      You probably cross-posted it elsewhere - local or state wide?  National?  Anyhoo, thanks for the informative diary.

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