I know that we haven't counted a single vote yet, and I know the polls still look bad (although not as dire as they did). And I certainly don't want to create any sense of complacency.
However, if you stood outside of your personal preferences, you could still see this coming like a freight train. And it's actually a pleasure to watch, because we Democrats have been through the experience of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory innumerable times. Clearly, now, it's the GOP's turn.
And it's their own fault...
Start with this: The obvious, Rovian tactics of the mainstream Republican party from Day 1 of the Obama administration. Deny him victories, spoil the ones he ends up getting - in short, blitzkrieg politics aimed at "Carterizing" this presidency. It's the GOP M.O. Make this President so unacceptable, that voters will be willing to forget how horrible Republican government was for the country. This was their strategy with President Clinton, and now - well - there they go again.
So, that has been there to begin with. And, as most of you know, most of us (the bigger "us") do not vote in midterm elections. Rovian tactics here are simple. Like 1994, the calculus has been to find a committed, emotional group of voters who were motivated to turn out to vote more than anybody else. Simple math: If 25 - 30% of the total voting population shows up at the polls, the intensely infuriated 15% can win you a majority in Congress. That's exactly what happened in 1994, and the GOP has been banking on the same thing all year. Unlike 1994, when it was guns, God and gays in the military, they have figured on health care backlash and terrorism fear to get them to it.
Then, the Tea Party shows up. These are perfect allies. They'll make noise, they'll work for candidates, and - best of all - they'll show up at the polls. Dedicated, emotionally-vested worker bees. The problem is, they don't just want to volunteer and vote for the candidate they support. They actually want to run.
And so they did, and they won. All over. Knocking off incumbent Republicans. And here is the problem with that:
The mainstream Republican idealogy is built on winning the game - all the time. Governing is nothing compared to the strategy of gaining and keeping power. To do this, mainstream Republican candidates often support one position during a primary and then repudiate that same position in the general election. They adopt ideas that they have co-opted from some other candidate who made a run in the primaries. In other words they are intellectually dishonest whenever it is necessary.
And so, politics of convenience meets the politics of dedicated fear and loathing. Tea Party candidates aren't candidates of convenience (for the most part). They are 100% truthful about how crazy they are. Get rid of the minimum wage. The President is a Muslim. All muslims are bad. Healthcare is unconstitutional. And, the beauty is, when your this committed to your lunacy, you tend to publically proclaim it to all who will listen. And they have. Over and over and over again.
This scares the crap out of everybody else who does not think like them. And so Democrats gain in the polls, and their candidates - all across the country - benefit.
In short, the success of the Tea Party, and the intellectual honesty that goes with extremism and lunacy, have energized progressive voters and turned off the middle. Translation: Now, voters may not like Democrats, but they seem to like Republicans even less.
Christine O'Donnell, Rand Paul, Carl Paladino, Jim DeMint, and their God-grizzy-mama Sarah Palin are the poster children of the new Republican party - whether the old Republican party likes it or not. And Christine, Rand, and Carl (and several others) are now the the referendum for 2010 - and not President Obama, health care reform or even the economy.
Now, this isn't over. The committed conservatives are still going to show up, and we still have to show up to vote too. We have a whole month, and things can change - but the trend lines are very clear. Races that were trending GOP all over the country are now far more competitive, and in some we're even opening up a bit of a lead. We can now seize momentum and keep losses to a minimum. But we cannot let up, and we need to show the positives of our candidates, even as the Tea Party Distress rumbles on.
One thing, however, is now clear. The certainty that there was a Republican wave that would give them majorities in the House and Senate has evaporated, and now it's a real contest. Let's go an win it!
Update: I'm not saying we're winning. I'm saying that they are not. At least not like they were. There is clearly a trend, and it is in our direction. We have a month. I don't think we're going to gain seats at this point, but this should motivate us to try. That's my point in writing this.