We have seen it recently in California where Brown and Boxer are opening up signifcant leads, in Washington and in Connecticut. Yes, the economy is making it a tough year, but new polling shows the Democrats coming back. The tradmed, however, is so invested in their wished-for Republican wave, that the news is not getting out. WE need to spread the word:
Submitted by Simon Rosenberg on 10/5/10
More evidence this morning confirming the argument we've been making for the past few weeks - the Republican wave has crested, and a new dynamic in election 2010 has taken hold.
New Rasmussen and Washington Post polls each show a 7 point swing towards the Democrats in the national Congressional Generic in the past few weeks. As we wrote yesterday this movement tracks similar movement seen in other polls released over the past few days, indicating that the Democrats have made substantial improvement in their position over the past month.
Simon Rosenberg is President and Founder of NDN and a veteran of the 1992 Clinton War Room. More from him:
In the lead Washington Post story on their new poll, the 7 point Democratic gain was "modest," and the 6 point Republican lead "significant." Not sure how that got by their editor this morning but shows how fundamentally invested much of DC's political class is in the September version of this story which had Democrats losing the House, a wave election and big Republican gains were already "baked in the cake."
Even with 9.5 % unemployment, the Republicans are having trouble winning both chambers of Congress. 9.5% unemployment. Yes, it was Bush's fault, but people often just blame whoever is in office. 100s of millions of dollars spent by Big Business and the Billionaires, and yet the Republicans still have not put it away. This was their chance and they have not and will not succeed.
It's despair that leads people to give up. We need to be agents of hope, showing that Dems can win. Simon Rosenberg sees Dem fortunes improving through October and into the election:
Given current trends it is reasonable to conclude that the Democrats could pick up another 3-6 points in the national polls before election day, which would have a significant impact of course on the many close races across the country.
I am struck that in most national polls the Republican number is that very same 46% they got in 2006 and 2008. Meaning that despite all that has gone on the Republicans have not improved their standing with the American public at all since their wipeout elections in 2006 and 2008.
Read the entire article. He makes good arguments for why Dems can close very strong. The Republicans failed to close the deal and now Democrats are coming back home.
The data now indicates that any talk of a "Republican Wave" needs to be dismissed, and a new theory of the 2010 elections, one which takes into account this late movement towards the Democrats and away from the Republicans, needs to be fashioned.
Fired Up! Ready To Go! If the Republicans cannot win with 9.5% unemployment and 100s of millions of dollars from corporations and billionaires, then the future is bright. 2010 will be difficult, but 2012 will be ours.
Update I: More good news. Further evidence that Blumenthal is pulling away:
The numbers: Blumenthal 54%, McMahon 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from a week and a half ago, Blumenthal led by only 50%-45%.