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Summary:
 KY has 6 reps: 4 R, 2 D.  
 LA has 7 reps: 6 R, 1 D.  
 ME has 2 reps: Both D.    

Possibly vulnerable:
 KY-03 (D)
 KY-06 (D)
 LA-03 (D)
 LA-02 (R) VERY vulnerable.
 ME-02 (D) a little

Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser's diaries here on daily Kos (which I checked for about a month).
=========================================================================
District: KY-01
Location Southwestern KY, bordering IN, IL, MO and TN. map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Ed Whitfeld (R)
VoteView 286
First elected 1994
2008 margin 64-36 over Heather Ryan
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 67-33
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Current opponents Charles Hatchett
Demographics  11th most rural (63.5%), 29th lowest income (median = $30K), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)
Assessment  Safe for Republicans.  Whitfeld has about $1million COH, no info on Hatchett

District: KY-02
Location Central KY, bordering IN. map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Brett Guthrie (R)
VoteView 322.5
First elected  1994
2008 margin 53-47 over David Boswell
2006 margin 55-45
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 38-61
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents Ed Marksberry
Demographics 37th most rural (52.8%), 61st most Republican on Cook PVI, 70th most Whites (90.6%)
Assessment  Safe for Republicans. Guthrie ran well behind McCain, not a good sign.  He may be a little bit vulnerable, but probably not this year.  He has $760K COH, no info on Marksberry

District: KY-03
Location Louisville and suburbs, bordering INmap
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative John Yarmuth (D)
VoteView 132.5
First elected  2006
2008 margin 59-41 over Anne Northup
2006 margin 51-48
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents  None confirmed.
Demographics  Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Yarmuth has over $600K COH, and some debt, Lally has about $270 K, but lots of debt. A poll from 3 weeks ago gives Yarmuth up 53-30
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D

District: KY-04
Location Northern KY, bordering IN, OH, and a tiny bit of WV map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Geoff Davis (R)
VoteView 322.5
First elected  2004
2008 margin 63-37 over Michael Kelly
2006 margin 52-43
2004 margin 54-44
Obama margin 38-60
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Current opponents John Waltz
Demographics  26th fewest Latinos (1.1%), 14th most Whites (95.1%)
Assessment Long shot.  Davis has about $800K COH, Waltz has about $100K.

District: KY-05
Location Southeastern KY, bordering VA, WV, and TN map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative Harold Rogers (R)
VoteView 321
First elected  1980
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 74-26
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 31-67
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Jim Holbert
Demographics  An unusual district.  The most rural (78.7%), 2nd lowest income (median income = $22K) (only NY16 is lower), most White (97.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), and 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%).
Assessment  Long shot.  Rogers has $900 K COH, Holbert has little.

District: KY-06
Location Central KY, including Lexington map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Ben Chandler (D)
VoteView 211
First elected  2004
2008 margin 65-35 over John Larson
2006 margin 85-15 (vs. libertarian)
2004 margin 59-40
Obama margin 43-55
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Andy Barr
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Chandler has $1.7 million COH, Barr has about $360K.  A recent Republican poll had Barr up 48-47, but a Democratic poll had Chandler up by 12.  A slightly older independent poll has Chandler up 51-37.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D, Chandler has more money, better polling and is incumbent.

District: LA-01
Location Northeastern part of the southern part of LA, bordering MS and Lake Pontchartrain, including Metarie map
Cook PVI R + 24
Representative Steve Scalise (R)
VoteView 389
First elected  2007 (replacing Jindal)
2008 margin 66-34 over Jim Harlan
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 26-72
Bush margin 2004 71-29
Current opponents Myron Katz
Demographics 10th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment  Long shot.  Scalise has almost $400K, Katz has about $50K.

District: LA-02
Location New Orleans map
Cook PVI D + 25
Representative Anh Cao (R)
VoteView NA
First elected  2009 (replacing Jefferson)
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 75-23
Bush margin 2004 24-75
Current opponents Cedric Richmond
Demographics 10th lowest income (median = $27.5K), 40th fewest Whites (28.3%), 2nd most Blacks (63.7%) (only IL01 is higher)
Assessment  Cao has about $300K COH, Richmond about the same, LaFonta much less. A Democratic poll has Richmond up by 10.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D

District: LA-03
Location Southeastern LA, on the Gulf of Mexico map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative Charlie Melancon (D) Running for Senate
VoteView 218
First elected  2004
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 55-40
2004 margin in runoff, Melancon won by 569 votes of 115,000
Obama margin 37-61
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Democrats: Ravi Sangisetty. Republicans: Jeff Landry
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Sangisetty has $250K COH (but lots of debt), Landry has about $200K
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Lean R - This is a Republican district, but Sangisetty is raising money somehow.  

District: LA-04
Location Western LA, bordering TX and AR, including Shreveportmap
Cook PVI R + 11
Representative John Fleming (R)
VoteView NA
First elected  2009
2008 margin 62-38 over Willie Banks (2009)
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents David Melville
Demographics  36th lowest income (median $31K), 36th most Blacks (33.3%)
Assessment  Safe. Fleming has about $400K (but lots of debt), Melville has about $50K (but also debt)

District: LA-05
Location Northeastern LA, bordering MS and AR map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Rodney Alexander (R)
VoteView 306
First elected  2002
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 68-29
2004 margin 59% (no runoff)
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 62-37
Current opponents No Democrat
Demographics 9th lowest income (median = $27K), 24th most Blacks (33.7%)
Assessment  No opponent

District: LA-06
Location The northwestern part of the southern part of LA map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Bill Cassidy (R)
VoteView NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 48-40 over Don Cazayoux
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 41-57
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents Merritt McDonald
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Safe.  Cassidy has $850K COH, no info on McDonald

District: LA-07
Location Southwestern LA, bordering TX and the Gulf map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Charles Boustany (R)
VoteView 301
First elected  2004
2008 margin 62-34 over Don Cravins
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin 55-45 in runoff
Obama margin 35-63
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 44th lowest income (median = $31K)
Assessment  No opponent

District: ME-01
Location The southern part of ME, including Portland map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Chellie Pingree (D)
VoteView NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 55-45 over Charles Summers
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 43-55
Current opponents Dean Scontras
Demographics 42nd most rural (50.6%), 4th most White (96.3%), 11th least Black (0.6%), 11th least Latino (0.8%) (only 6 districts have less than 1% Black and less than 1% Latino; two of them are in ME, and all of them have Democratic reps)
Assessment  Safe, Pingree won in an open race in 2008.  Pingress has about $400K COH, Scontras about $70K.  A recent poll had Pingree up 46-38, a slightly older poll has her up 54-26.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Likely D, or even safe.

District: ME-02
Location Northern ME, bordering Canada, a bit of NH, and the Atlantic map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Michael Michaud (D)
VoteView 135.5
First elected  2002
2008 margin 67-33 over John Frary
2006 margin 61-31
2004 margin 60-40
Obama margin 55-43
Bush margin 2004 46-52
Current opponents Jason Levesque
Demographics 3rd most rural (69%), 2nd most White (96.7%), 7th fewest Blacks (0.4%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)
Assessment  Michaud has $660K, Levesque about $60K.  A poll from a couple weeks ago has Michaud up 44-32, but Levesque gaining.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Likely D

Originally posted to plf515 on Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 05:22 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Congressional tips n/t (16+ / 0-)

    We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

    by plf515 on Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 05:22:02 AM PDT

  •  Thank you. I live in Ky-05. (6+ / 0-)

    It is not that unusual a district. This is the coal and tobacco fields areas of Kentucky. Mining is considered king, as it is approx. 20% of the employment, either directly or indirectly. Compared to nationally, we are a poorer district, a less educated district, a district where a smaller percentage than national uses the internet for information. To me, that explains the mystery of this district. But compared to other districts, this one leans toward Conway. I am hoping that also translates to additional help for Holbert.

    •  I don't think I've ever been (4+ / 0-)

      in KY-05.

      I wish Holbert well.  

      We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

      by plf515 on Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 06:16:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I would love to see Hal Rogers go (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      plf515, ekyprogressive, Larsstephens

      I grew up in 5 and for many years have lived in 6 (Lexington).  

      I don't think Ben Chandler will get knocked off here, he's really hitting Barr hard in the ads, attaching him to Ernie Fletcher.  I think of Chandler as a blue dog, but he's sure better than a Republican would be.

      I remember growing up when Kentucky was Democratic all the way and they used to say Jesus Christ couldn't beat Carl Perkins.  I'd love to see Kentucky get some sense again and break out of this head-lock the religious right has given the Republicans on us.

      If Conway gets beat by that damned idiot, I will have lost all hope for the people of my state.

      "Rand Paul and the Militia Boys" would be a really good name for a really bad Bluegrass band.

      by get the red out on Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 07:20:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Im in Ky 01 (6+ / 0-)

    The district curves around oddly, I actually live in South Central Ky.

    If I read the poll correctly, Conway is trailing by 6 here- which considering how rural/conservative it is, is pretty good- and he's catching up- a local informal poll done by our local paper actually has Conway slightly ahead in a couple of areas- the commercial featuring Paul and the 2,000 dollar Medicaid  deductible is really making an impact.  If Conway can just keep the pressure up, and we GOTV, he could win Ky.

    Having said all that- Ed Whitfield is going to be our next congressman :(  The only comfort here is , although I disagree with him on so many things, at least he's not Bat-@hit crazy.

    "Real History is not for Sissies" Barry McCain

    by Hill Jill on Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 06:17:26 AM PDT

    •  Is the map wrong? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Lujane, Larsstephens

      From the map, it looks like KY-01 is a fairly normal shape, a blobby shape in the NE of the state, reaching to the middle.

      It's always hard to describe these shapes in words, that's why I link to the map.  But there doesn't seem to be any odd curves.

      We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

      by plf515 on Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 06:27:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  KY-1 is the western tip of the state (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        plf515, Larsstephens

        I think you are confusing KY-1 with KY-4.  I'm in Murray.  The odd part of KY-1's shape is the finger that curls into south central KY (I suspect where the previous poster lives) and misses the Bowling Green area.

        At least Heather Ryan actually campaigned and acted like she wanted to be my representative.  The guy (Hatchett) "running" this year has no webpage and has apparently raised $0.  Even Basil Marceaux dot com from Tennesse gubernatorial fame had a semi-literate webpage and Youtube videos.

        •  Yes- I live in the (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          plf515, Larsstephens

          "finger" of 01, which misses Bowling Green, and Glasgow, Columbia, and Sommerset- the more populated areas. (relatively speaking)

          I agree about Heather Ryan- she actually got out and campaigned.  I had to look up Hatchett to see who he was.  There are NO Congressional campaign signs anywhere here, but a fair amount of Senate, and then a ton of local signs.

          "Real History is not for Sissies" Barry McCain

          by Hill Jill on Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 07:05:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Oops, yeah (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Larsstephens

          my bad.  Looking at the right map this time, I see KY-01 does indeed have a finger.

          We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

          by plf515 on Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 07:10:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I'm in Louisiana (6+ / 0-)

    and frankly, I think La-01 is safe for Scalise (You don't get any more conservative than Metairie, LA) and La-03 is definitely likely for Landry -- if not safe.  In that district, the big race was the Republican primary, where the question was which candidate was the "real" conservative.  Landry won in part because his Republican primary opponent, Hunt Downer, was once a Democrat and supported former Governor Kathleen Blanco.  There's no way the Democrat wins in that district.  I suspect that most voters in that district would have a hard time telling you the name of the Democratic candidate.  (Charlie Melancon only won that seat last time because he is vehemently "pro-life, pro-gun, conservative Democrat" -- his ads for Senate against Vitter boast of the times when he voted against the Democrats -- on cap and trade, on health care, and on lifting the drilling moratorium). In other words, it's a very red district.

    A few weeks ago, I would have called La - 02 safe for Richmond.  Cao is only in that seat because the Democrats were foolish enough last time to run "Dollar Bill" Jefferson AFTER he was indicted.  However, Cao is running an ad that highlights some alleged moral/ethical lapses by Richmond, including the fact that he was suspended from the practice of law and repeating an allegation that Richmond funneled money to a nonprofit run by a former girlfriend.  That ties into a previously-existing undercurrent that Richmond is a "politician" in the negative sense, using elective office to help friends. That may tighten the race some, but I still think Richmond will walk away with it.  Cao is squeaky clean ethically, but way too conservative for that district.  That's the only district in LA where Obama's ads in support of the Democratic candidate will help rather than hurt. I'd put La-02 in the "Likely Dem" category, as you do, rather than "Leans Dem" as SSP does.        

  •  LA-02 may be the only district in the US (4+ / 0-)

    where the Republican is running on the claim that he's better buds with the president than the Dem.

    Richmond extremely likely to take it in a walk.

    I'd like my life back, too, Tony ____ Video and more songs at da web site

    by Crashing Vor on Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 06:48:41 AM PDT

  •  Democrats we got the Big Mo (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, Larsstephens

    "Michelle Obama" will help lead  us to victory in November, you just do your part and vote ,and victory  will be at hand , i  guarantee

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