Summary:
KY has 6 reps: 4 R, 2 D.
LA has 7 reps: 6 R, 1 D.
ME has 2 reps: Both D.
Possibly vulnerable:
KY-03 (D)
KY-06 (D)
LA-03 (D)
LA-02 (R) VERY vulnerable.
ME-02 (D) a little
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser's diaries here on daily Kos (which I checked for about a month).
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District: KY-01
Location Southwestern KY, bordering IN, IL, MO and TN. map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Ed Whitfeld (R)
VoteView 286
First elected 1994
2008 margin 64-36 over Heather Ryan
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 67-33
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Current opponents Charles Hatchett
Demographics 11th most rural (63.5%), 29th lowest income (median = $30K), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Whitfeld has about $1million COH, no info on Hatchett
District: KY-02
Location Central KY, bordering IN. map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Brett Guthrie (R)
VoteView 322.5
First elected 1994
2008 margin 53-47 over David Boswell
2006 margin 55-45
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 38-61
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents Ed Marksberry
Demographics 37th most rural (52.8%), 61st most Republican on Cook PVI, 70th most Whites (90.6%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Guthrie ran well behind McCain, not a good sign. He may be a little bit vulnerable, but probably not this year. He has $760K COH, no info on Marksberry
District: KY-03
Location Louisville and suburbs, bordering INmap
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative John Yarmuth (D)
VoteView 132.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 59-41 over Anne Northup
2006 margin 51-48
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Yarmuth has over $600K COH, and some debt, Lally has about $270 K, but lots of debt. A poll from 3 weeks ago gives Yarmuth up 53-30
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D
District: KY-04
Location Northern KY, bordering IN, OH, and a tiny bit of WV map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Geoff Davis (R)
VoteView 322.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 63-37 over Michael Kelly
2006 margin 52-43
2004 margin 54-44
Obama margin 38-60
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Current opponents John Waltz
Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%), 14th most Whites (95.1%)
Assessment Long shot. Davis has about $800K COH, Waltz has about $100K.
District: KY-05
Location Southeastern KY, bordering VA, WV, and TN map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative Harold Rogers (R)
VoteView 321
First elected 1980
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 74-26
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 31-67
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Jim Holbert
Demographics An unusual district. The most rural (78.7%), 2nd lowest income (median income = $22K) (only NY16 is lower), most White (97.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), and 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%).
Assessment Long shot. Rogers has $900 K COH, Holbert has little.
District: KY-06
Location Central KY, including Lexington map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Ben Chandler (D)
VoteView 211
First elected 2004
2008 margin 65-35 over John Larson
2006 margin 85-15 (vs. libertarian)
2004 margin 59-40
Obama margin 43-55
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Andy Barr
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Chandler has $1.7 million COH, Barr has about $360K. A recent Republican poll had Barr up 48-47, but a Democratic poll had Chandler up by 12. A slightly older independent poll has Chandler up 51-37.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D, Chandler has more money, better polling and is incumbent.
District: LA-01
Location Northeastern part of the southern part of LA, bordering MS and Lake Pontchartrain, including Metarie map
Cook PVI R + 24
Representative Steve Scalise (R)
VoteView 389
First elected 2007 (replacing Jindal)
2008 margin 66-34 over Jim Harlan
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 26-72
Bush margin 2004 71-29
Current opponents Myron Katz
Demographics 10th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment Long shot. Scalise has almost $400K, Katz has about $50K.
District: LA-02
Location New Orleans map
Cook PVI D + 25
Representative Anh Cao (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2009 (replacing Jefferson)
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 75-23
Bush margin 2004 24-75
Current opponents Cedric Richmond
Demographics 10th lowest income (median = $27.5K), 40th fewest Whites (28.3%), 2nd most Blacks (63.7%) (only IL01 is higher)
Assessment Cao has about $300K COH, Richmond about the same, LaFonta much less. A Democratic poll has Richmond up by 10.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D
District: LA-03
Location Southeastern LA, on the Gulf of Mexico map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative Charlie Melancon (D) Running for Senate
VoteView 218
First elected 2004
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 55-40
2004 margin in runoff, Melancon won by 569 votes of 115,000
Obama margin 37-61
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Democrats: Ravi Sangisetty. Republicans: Jeff Landry
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Sangisetty has $250K COH (but lots of debt), Landry has about $200K
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Lean R - This is a Republican district, but Sangisetty is raising money somehow.
District: LA-04
Location Western LA, bordering TX and AR, including Shreveportmap
Cook PVI R + 11
Representative John Fleming (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2009
2008 margin 62-38 over Willie Banks (2009)
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents David Melville
Demographics 36th lowest income (median $31K), 36th most Blacks (33.3%)
Assessment Safe. Fleming has about $400K (but lots of debt), Melville has about $50K (but also debt)
District: LA-05
Location Northeastern LA, bordering MS and AR map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Rodney Alexander (R)
VoteView 306
First elected 2002
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 68-29
2004 margin 59% (no runoff)
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 62-37
Current opponents No Democrat
Demographics 9th lowest income (median = $27K), 24th most Blacks (33.7%)
Assessment No opponent
District: LA-06
Location The northwestern part of the southern part of LA map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Bill Cassidy (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 48-40 over Don Cazayoux
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 41-57
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents Merritt McDonald
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Cassidy has $850K COH, no info on McDonald
District: LA-07
Location Southwestern LA, bordering TX and the Gulf map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Charles Boustany (R)
VoteView 301
First elected 2004
2008 margin 62-34 over Don Cravins
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin 55-45 in runoff
Obama margin 35-63
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 44th lowest income (median = $31K)
Assessment No opponent
District: ME-01
Location The southern part of ME, including Portland map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Chellie Pingree (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 55-45 over Charles Summers
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 43-55
Current opponents Dean Scontras
Demographics 42nd most rural (50.6%), 4th most White (96.3%), 11th least Black (0.6%), 11th least Latino (0.8%) (only 6 districts have less than 1% Black and less than 1% Latino; two of them are in ME, and all of them have Democratic reps)
Assessment Safe, Pingree won in an open race in 2008. Pingress has about $400K COH, Scontras about $70K. A recent poll had Pingree up 46-38, a slightly older poll has her up 54-26.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Likely D, or even safe.
District: ME-02
Location Northern ME, bordering Canada, a bit of NH, and the Atlantic map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Michael Michaud (D)
VoteView 135.5
First elected 2002
2008 margin 67-33 over John Frary
2006 margin 61-31
2004 margin 60-40
Obama margin 55-43
Bush margin 2004 46-52
Current opponents Jason Levesque
Demographics 3rd most rural (69%), 2nd most White (96.7%), 7th fewest Blacks (0.4%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)
Assessment Michaud has $660K, Levesque about $60K. A poll from a couple weeks ago has Michaud up 44-32, but Levesque gaining.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Likely D