Most poll models of "likely voters" are basing the assumption that African-Americans will vote as they typically have in most midterm elections in the past which is not in strong numbers. However, there is a survey that has looked at the possible black vote turn out in 2010 and have come to the conclusion that the African-American vote will be much stronger than expected. If that was to happen that could be the key factor in several congressional, senate, and governors' races. It could be the difference between a Category 5 Dem wipe out vs a more moderate Dem loss.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
In past midterms a higher percentage of voters tend to be whiter and older thus more Republican. Because of that many of the pollsters' "likely models" reflect this probability. However, according to a survey that may not be the case in 2010.
Will black voters turn out in November?
Historically, black turnout for midterm elections has lagged behind the national average, but two new reports offer a bullish outlook for this year.
A major survey conducted by The Washington Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University found that 80 percent of black Democrats are as interested or more interested in the midterms than they were in the 2008 presidential election, when their enthusiasm helped propel Barack Obama into office.
This survey shows that African-Americans are more energized to vote this year than many pollsters are assuming.
This year, 62 percent of all black Democrats say they're likely to encourage others to support certain candidates, according to the survey, compared with 47 percent of white Democrats and 57 percent of all Republicans.
And the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which researched the black electorate, said in a report Thursday that African American participation in November may be higher than in many past midterm elections.
The Obama adiminstration and the Democrats have been working under the radar on pushing out the black vote.
President Obama has been campaigning throughout the country including in predominately black areas as well. In addition to President Obama other Democrats have been working on the black vote.
Other administration officials have also fanned out to black outlets. White House senior adviser Valerie Jarrett appears in this month's Essence magazine, and Elizabeth Warren, who is helping to set up a consumer protection agency, will appear on television commentator Roland Martin's black-oriented political show.
In addition to the administration's efforts, a record number of Congressional Black Caucus members are facing challengers, which has forced many of them to work harder to get their supporters to vote. And the Rev. Al Sharpton said Thursday that he will travel the country next week holding "Souls to the Polls" events at African American churches. He plans to shop in Cleveland, Miami, Philadelphia and other cities.
Representative Clyburn also talked about the African-American vote as the secret weapon on MSNBC yesterday.
http://thehill.com/...
A large turnout by black voters could help stave off large losses for Democrats, Rep. James Clyburn said Thursday.
Clyburn, the third-ranking House Democrat, dismissed concerns that black turnout on Nov. 2 could drop off precipitously from 2008, when then-Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) was on the ballot and poised to become the first African-American president.
"I really believe that that is what is going to be the secret weapon here," said the South Carolina Democrat, who is a member of the Congressional Black Caucus, on MSNBC. "That is the unknown to a lot of people."
If indeed African Americans come out and vote in much stronger numbers than previous midterms and what current pollsters are assuming, it could be the difference in 20 House seats as well as Senate races and governorships.
http://www.thestate.com/...
"It is not at all clear that the outcome is going to be as grim for the Democrats as at least some polls suggest today," Teixeira said. "The Democrats could possibly get out of this election and still hold the House. I think it's going to be very difficult, but it is not as impossible as it might appear."
Black voters are "strategically located" to impact as many as 20 House races, mostly in Southern states, explained David Bositis, a senior researcher at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, who has analyzed the black electorate for more than two decades. They also could sway more than a dozen Senate and governor's races, Bositis said.
According to the WaPo article much of this is not discussed out in the open and pollsters' models are not reflecting what could happen.
"So often, the effort to turn out black voters is invisible to the larger white society," Bositis said. "It is happening in black organizations. It is happening in black churches. This isn't something you're going to watch in real time on the Web and television."