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Summary:
MD has 8 reps: 1 R, 7 D
MA has 10 reps: all D  
MI has  15 reps: 8 D, 7 R

Possibly vulnerable:
  MD-01 (D)
  MA-10 (D) (but probably not)
  MI-01 (D)
  MI-02 (R) (but probably not)
  MI-03 (R)
  MI-07 (D)
  MI-09 (D)

Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser's diaries here on daily Kos (which I checked for about a month).
=========================================================================
District: MD-01
Location Eastern MD, bordering DE; plus most of the shore of the Chesapeake map
Cook PVI  R + 13
Representative Frank Kratovil (D)
VoteView 242
First elected 2008
2008 margin  49-48 over Andy Harris (less than 3,000 voes)
2006 margin  NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Andy Harris
Demographics  Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Vulnerable.  Kratovil has $1.3 million COH, Harris an impressive $940 K.  Kratovil seems to fit here, but Harris almost won in a year that was bound to be better for Democrats.
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating:  Tossup

District: MD-02
Location The western shore of the Chesapeake, plus odd bits farther west map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Dutch Ruppersberger (D)
VoteView 177
First elected 2002
2008 margin 72-25 over Richard Matthews
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 60-39
Bush margin 2004 45-54
Current opponents Marcelo Cardarelli
Demographics  Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Safe. Ruppersberger has $1 miilion COH, Cardarelli has little.

District: MD-03
Location An odd shaped district, including Annapolis map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative John Sarbanes
VoteView 102.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 70-30 over Thomas Harris
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 59-40
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents  Jim Wilhelm.
Demographics  Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Safe. Sarbanes has $600K COH, Wilhelm has little.

District: MD-04
Location Another odd shaped district, including area to the north and east of DC map
Cook PVI D + 31
Representative Donna Edwards (D)
VoteView 19
First elected 2008
2008 margin 86-13 over Peter James
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 85-14
Bush margin 2004 78-21
Current opponents  Robert Broadus
Demographics  37th fewest Whites, 13th most Blacks
Assessment  Safe.  Edwards has $170K COH, Broadus has little.

District: MD-05
Location Mostly this is the southern part of MD to the west of the Chesapeake map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Steny Hoyer (D)
VoteView 166
First elected 1981
2008 margin 74-24 over Collins Bailey
2006 margin 83-16 (over a Green party candidate)
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 65-34
Bush margin 2004 42-57
Current opponents Charles Lollar
Demographics  28th  highest median income; 28th fewest in poverty
Assessment  Safe.  Hoyer has nearly $2 million CHO, Lollar about $90K.  It would be nice to have someone more progressive in this solidly Democratic seat, but not likely until Hoyer retires.

District: MD-06
Location The westernmost part of MD, a thin wedge between PA, WV, and VA map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative  Roscoe Bartlett (R)
VoteView 328
First elected 1992
2008 margin 58-39 over Jennifer Daugherty
2006 margin 59-38
2004 margin 67-29
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents Andrew Duck
Demographics  Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Bartlett has $300K COH, Duck has little. Bartlett is 83 years old, but Duck lost to Bartlett in 2006, and in a primary in 2008.  Safe for Republicans.

District: MD-07
Location Baltimore and points west map
Cook PVI D + 25
Representative Elijah Cummings
VoteView 77
First elected 1996
2008 margin 80-19 over Michael Hargadon
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 73-25
Obama margin 79-20
Bush margin 2004 26-73
Current opponents Frank Mirabile Jr
Demographics  31st most Blacks
Assessment  Safe. Cummings has over $750K COH, Mirabilie has little.

District: MD-08
Location North and west of DC, bordering VA map
Cook PVI D + 21
Representative Chris van Hollen (D)
VoteView 105.5
First elected 2002
2008 margin 75-22 over Steve Hudson
2006 margin 77-22
2004 margin 75-25
Obama margin 73-25
Bush margin 2004 30-69
Current opponents  Michael Lee Phillips
Demographics  17th highest median income
Assessment  Safe. van Hollen has an amazing $3 million COH, Hudson has little.

District: MA-01
Location The largest CD in MA, more than half the state, in the west.  Bordering NH, VT, NY and CT map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative John Olver
VoteView 11.5
First elected  1991
2008 margin 73-27 over Nate Bech
2006 margin 76-23 (against an independent)
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 35-63
Current opponents  William Gunn
Demographics 60th fewest Black (1.6%), 71st most Democratic per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe. Olver has $380K COH. Gunn has little.

District: MA-02
Location Southern MA, bordering CT and RI, from Springfield to Milford map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Richard Neal (D)
VoteView 62.5
First elected  1988
2008 margin unopposed
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Current opponents Tom Wesley
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe.  Neal has almost $3 million COH, Wesley has little.

District: MA-03
Location MA-03 runs from the middle of the state southeast to Somerset, and borders RI map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Jim McGovern (D)
VoteView  35.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 71-29
Obama margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Current opponents Martin Lamb
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe.  McGovern has almost $1 million COH, Lamb has little.

District: MA-04
Location Runs from New Bedford, on the coast, northwest and then northeast to Brookline and Newton, suburbs of Boston map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative Barney Frank (D)
VoteView 27
First elected  1980
2008 margin 68-25 over Earl Sholley
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 78-22 (against an independent)
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 33-65
Current opponents Sean Bielat
Demographics 70th highest income (median = $55K), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), 55th most Democratic per Cook
Assessment Safe.  Frank has $1 million COH, Sholley has little.

District: MA-05
Location Northern MA, bordering NH, including Lowell and Lawrence map
Cook PVI  D + 8
Representative Niki Tsongas (D)
VoteView 93
First elected  2007
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 41-57
Current opponents Jon Golnik
Demographics 64th fewest Blacks (1.9%)
Assessment Safe.  Tsongas has $500K COH, Golnik about $80K.

District: MA-06
Location The northeast corner of MA, bordering NH and the Atlantic, including Lynn, Salem, and Gloucester. map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative John Tierney (D)
VoteView 32.5
First elected  1996
2008 margin 70-30 over Richard Baker
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin 70-30
Obama margin 59-41
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Current opponents  Bill Hudak Jr
Demographics 50th highest income (median = $58K), 71st fewest Blacks (1.9%), 12th most Democratic
Assessment Safe.  Tierney has $1.5 million COH, Hudak about $90K.

District: MA-07
Location Northern and western suburbs of Boston map
Cook PVI D + 15
Representative Edward Markey (D)
VoteView 30.5
First elected  1976
2008 margin 76-24 over John Cunningham
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 74-22
Obama margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 33-66
Current opponents  Gerry Dembrowski
Demographics 55th highest income (median = $56K), 54th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Markey has over $3.4 million COH. Dembrowski has little.

District: MA-08
Location Part of Boston, plus Cambridge, Somerville, and Chelsea map
Cook PVI D + 32
Representative Michael Capuano (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 30.5
First elected  1998
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 91-9 (the 9 went to a Socialist)
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 86-14
Bush margin 2004 19-79
Current opponents  None declared
Demographics 13th fewest veterans (5.5%), 50th lowest income (median = $39K), 88th fewest Whites (48.9%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment No opponent.

District: MA-09
Location Part of Boston, plus southern suburbs including Braintree and Brockton map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative  Stephen Lynch (D)
VoteView 142
First elected  2001
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 78-22
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 61-39
Bush margin 2004 36-63
Current opponents Vern Harrison
Demographics 60th highest income (median = $55K), 70th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Lynch has $1 million COH, no info on Harrison.

District: MA-10
Location Eastern MA, including Cape Cod and Nantucket, bordering the Atlantic, including Quincy and Hyannis map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Bill Delahunt (D) Retiring
VoteView 39.5
First elected  1996
2008 margin  Unopposed
2006 margin 64-29
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 43-56
Current opponents Jeff Perry (R), Bill Keating (D)
Demographics 32nd fewest people in poverty (5.9%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%) and 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment  Keating has over $350K, Perry has $130K
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D.  This is Democratic territory, and Keating is not taking things for granted (unlike SOME candidates in Massachusetts recent history!)

District: MI-01
Location The UP of MI, and the northern most part of the lower part map.  
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Bart Stupak (D) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 50-48
Bush margin 2004 52-45
Current opponents Gary McDowell (D)  Dan Benishek (R)
Demographics 5th most rural (66.6%), 24th most veterans (16.9%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 30th fewest Blacks (1.0%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment McDowell and Benishek each have almost exactly $130K COH.  A recent poll put Benishek up 42-39
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: For want of information: Tossup

District: MI-02
Cook PVI R + 7
Location Western MI, bordering Lake Michigan map.
Representative Pete Hoekstra (R) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents  Nicolette McClure (D) Bill Huizenga (R)
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment This is a fairly Republican district, but it's open. Huizenga has about $70K COH, McClure has little.
My rating: Likely R

District: MI-03
Location A bit to the southwest of the center of the state, including Grand Rapids map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Vernon Ehlers (R) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents Justin Amash (R) Pat Miles (D)
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Obama ran even here.  Now that Ehlers is out .... who knows?  Amash has $111K COH, but lots of debt, Miles has about double the COH, but also lots of debt.

District: MI-04
Location Central MI map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Dave Camp (R)
VoteView 327
First elected  1996
2008 margin 62-36 over Andrew Concannon
2006 margin 61-38
2004 margin 64-38
Obama margin 50-48
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Jerry Campbell
Demographics 20th most rural (58.6%)
Assessment  Long shot.  Camp has $1.3 million COH, no info on Campbell.

District: MI-05
Location Flint and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative  Dale Kildee (D)
VoteView 149
First elected  1976
2008 margin 70-27 over Matt Sawicki
2006 margin 73-25
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents John Kupiec
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Safe. Kildee has over $700K COH, Kupiec has little.

District: MI-06
Location Southwestern MI, bordering IN and Lake Michigan map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Frederick Upton (R)
VoteView 283
First elected  1986
2008 margin 59-39 over Don Cooney
2006 margin 61-38
2004 margin 65-32
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents Don Cooney
Demographics 82nd most rural (41.7%)
Assessment  Safe.  Upton has $760K COH, Cooney has little.

District: MI-07
Location Central part of southern MI, bordering IN and OH, including Battle Creek map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Mark Schauer (D)
VoteView NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 49-46 over Tim Walberg
2006 margin  NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 52-46
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Tim Walberg
Demographics 68th most rural (46%)
Assessment Vulnerable. Crisitunity ranks it the 14th most vulnerable Democratic seat.  Schauer barely won in 2008, but that was his freshman year, and he ousted Walberg.  Schauer has $1.6 million COH, Walberg about $2400K.  A recent non-partisan poll had this tied at 44, A Democratic poll had Schauer up 47-44, and a slightly older D poll said much the same, while a Republican poll has Walberg ahead 42-38
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup

District: MI-08
Location Lansing and surrounding area map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Mike Rogers (R)
VoteView 335
First elected  2000
2008 margin 56-40 over Robert Alexander
2006 margin 55-43
2004 margin 61-37
Obama margin 53-46
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Lance Enderle
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Another increasingly D district, but probably not this year.  Rogers has $1 million COH, no info on Enderle

District: MI-09
Location Northern and western suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Gary Peters (D)
VoteView NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 52-43 over Joe Knollenberg
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Rocky Raczkowski
Demographics 23rd highest income (median = $65K), 26th fewest in poverty (5.4%), 88th most veterans (10.6%)
Assessment Peters ousted Knollenberg, so he should be OK, but it's not totally safe. Peters has $1.9 million COH,  Raczkowski has $200K.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D

District: MI-10
Location Eastern MI, bordering Canada and Lake Huron map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Candice Miller (R)
VoteView 284
First elected  2002
2008 margin 66-31 over Robert Dennison
2006 margin 66-31
2004 margin 69-30
Obama margin
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Henry Yanez
Demographics 35th fewest in poverty (6%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)
Assessment Safe.  Miller has $1.1 million COH, no info on Yanez

District: MI-11
Location Far western suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Thaddeus McCotter (R)
VoteView 285
First elected  2002
2008 margin 51-45 over Joseph Larkin
2006 margin 54-43
2004 margin 57-41
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Natalie Mosher
Demographics 37th highest income (median = $59K), 12th fewest in poverty (4.3%)
Assessment    McCotter may be beatable; the district is moving to the Democrats, but probably not this year. McCotter has nearly $600K COH, Mosher has little.

District: MI-12
Location Northern suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative Sander Levin (D)
VoteView 166
First elected  1982
2008 margin 72-24 over Bert Coppie
2006 margin 70-26
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 65-33
Bush margin 2004 39-61
Current opponents Don Volaric
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Safe.  Levin has about $500K COH, Volaric has little.

District: MI-13
Location Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 31
Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D)
VoteView 62.5
First elected  1996
2008 margin 74-19 over Edward Gubicks
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 78-18
Obama margin 84-16
Bush margin 2004 19-81
Current opponents John Hauler
Demographics 37th lowest income (median = $31K), 19th most in poverty (24.4%), 9th most Blacks (60.5%), 41st fewest Whites (28.9%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment Safe.  Kilpatrick has $280K COH, Hauler has little.

District: MI-14
Location Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 34
Representative John Conyers (D)
VoteView 25.5
First elected  1964
2008 margin 92-4 over minor party candidates
2006 margin 85-15
2004 margin 84-16
Obama margin 87-12
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents Don Ukrainec
Demographics 50th fewest Whites (32.1%), 35th lowest income (median = $36K), 17th most Blacks (61.1%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment  Safe.  Conyers has $120K COH, Ukrainec has little.

District: MI-15
Location Southern suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative John Dingell (D)
VoteView 115.5
First elected  1955 (longest serving House member)
2008 margin 71-25 over John Lynch
2006 margin 88% against minor parties
2004 margin 71-27
Obama margin 66-32
Bush margin 2004 38-62
Current opponents Rob Steele
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Safe.  Dingell has $900K COH, Steele about $100K.  A recent Republican poll had Steele ahead, 44-40

Originally posted to plf515 on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 04:36 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Congressional tips n/t (11+ / 0-)

    We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

    by plf515 on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 04:36:51 AM PDT

  •  A little overoptimistic about MD-01 (6+ / 0-)

    The Harford and Cecil County areas are so far out in right field as to be a total loss. I live in Harford and like to wear my Super Obama shirt occasionally just to get the reactions. I get dirty looks from men and an occasional thumbs up from a woman.

  •  I live outside of (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eeff, wishingwell, plf515

    Baltimore City, and I've never seen so many Confederate Flags in my life(mostly on vehicles though)....It's truly amazing! What the heck is going on in my lovely state?

    "Coming together is a beginning..keeping it together is a process..working together is a success."

    by secret38b on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 05:02:31 AM PDT

  •  md-01 no chance (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515

    This was meant to be a republican seat and it will be.
    If democrats keep this seat we will keep the house but I don't see it.
    For whatever reason the eastern shore is like a southern state,

    •  Kratovil fits the district well (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, wishingwell, plf515

      Remember, people like Gene Taylor and Chet Edwards have held on in ludicrously Republican districts in good years and in bad years for the Democrats, there's no reason why Kratovil can't, either. Plus, recent polling backs this up.

      •  Edwards may not be the best example... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        plf515

        since polling says he is very likely going down this year, unfortunately. Perhaps there's some solace that it's taken everything the GOP has plus the outrage of having a black president to even attempt to take him out.

        Your point is still sound, though.

        "I, Barack Hussein Obama, do solemnly swear..." --Obama, 1/20/09

        by SouthernFried on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 08:16:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  MD-01 Typos, MD generally (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, plf515

    "Eastern Shore" of Maryland godammit. This is a distinct sociocultural region, and the words are ALWAYS capitalized.

    There is no "western shore" so the words are not capitalized.

    Districts are "odd shaped" because of Maryland Democratic Party machine gerrymandering to isolate Republicans in 01 and in 06 (or whatever Bartlett's district is).

    MD-01 was extremely happy with Wayne Gilchrest, a Republican mainly by accident.

    Out of state money was used, in something of a Citizens' United harbinger, to primary him in 08. Over 18 years Gilchrest did not accept any corporate, PAC or lobbyist contributions. So when Andy Harris came in with wads of money he was unprepared.

    Eastern Shore is rural and tends conservative but moderately so. Has a longstanding dislike of Baltimore particularly. Since Baltimore = Democratic, the Shore = Republican.

    Due to population density the Eastern Shore gets lumped with other more affluent and wingnutty areas to the west. Which is not to say there aren't wingnuts here too.

    Don't make too much of Bush's margin or McCain's margin. Politics, at least on the Shore, tends to follow individuals rather than party lines.

    But the peculiarity of the district is that the western edges are very densely populated and heavy with military workers. Their influence tends to skew the district. Andy Harris as a state senator comes from their area, not the Shore, and in essence he has voted no on anything except tax cuts.

    Being a "staunch Republican" is easy in Maryland because you can stand up for all sorts of idiocy that will never pass the General Assembly. This is not to be confused with the standard-issue idiocy cranked out by the Democratic Machine.

    Andy's tried to build some cred among people on the Shore by publicising his condo over here and (I think) doing some work hours as an anaesthesiologist in Dorchester Gen Hosp. Much of his funding has come from various medical associations based outside the state.

    So Andy may not pull it off: there's also a Libertarian on the ballot.

    If he does, there's good news in a couple ways.

    1. Frank Kratovil has been a disappointment. He has not served his constituents well by at first liking, then rejecting, a public optin; and then voting against HCR. People on the Shore are desperately underinsured, medically underserved, and generally less affluent than their fellow Marylanders to the west.

    Presumably a strong Democrat will be able to kick Harris out in 2012. Any win of his this year will be a squeaker.

    1. Andy's out of the Gen Assembly, where he's been a nonproductive member, and perhaps a strong Dem can replace him.
    1. Two close losses are going to make him vulnerable to E.J. Pipkin, an Eastern Shore Republican state Senator, in any primary.

    If Gilchrest had run as a Democrat or Independent in '10, he may well have won the seat back (but he's enjoying his retirement from the Beltway Ballet).

  •  In MI-13 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cfk, plf515

    Kilpatrick lost her primary the dem in the race is Hansen Clarke.

  •  The Lance Enderle story (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515

    for District: MI-08 has been explained in depth here at DKos...

    a very strange story, indeed.

    Brainwrap has been explaining the Rogers, Enderle story here:

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Join us at Bookflurries: Bookchat on Wednesday nights 8:00 PM EST

    by cfk on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 11:00:22 AM PDT

  •  In MI-02, the democratic opponent is Fred Johnson (0+ / 0-)

    not Nicolette Mcclure.

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