On a day when lovely Southern California has weather more indigenous to the great Northwest (read: drizzly, gray and 60 degrees), it is a mixed day on the polling front. While one of two of the bad boys listed therein will brighten the day of Democrats, while others bear a clear resemblance to a towering cumulonimbus cloud.
Having flogged that weather analogy to death, let's move on to the weekend edition of the Wrap. And quite a pudgy edition of the Wrap it is, with a grand total of 39 polls closing the week.
THE U.S. SENATE
THE ANALYSIS: Today's smattering of Senate polls is (mostly) about confirming recent trends. Apparently the people of the Mountaineer State don't like being called "hicky", because John Raese has been in a little bit of a freefall as of late. In Washington, the question is whether the Rossi boomlet (which has clearly abated) was ever a real thing, or the product of the Ras/SUSA nexus. Ipsos has Carly Fiorina clawing back. Notably, they are no longer publishing their RV tallies, as they did earlier in the cycle. Perhaps they tired of people questioning the wide variance between the two.
THE U.S. HOUSE
- Florida-02 (Political Marketing Intl--R):
Steve Southerland (R) 56%, Rep. Allan Boyd (D) 30%
- Illinois-10 (We Ask America--R):
Bob Dold (R) 50%, Dan Seals (D) 39%
- Minnesota-01 (SurveyUSA):
Rep. Tim Walz (D) 47%, Randy Demmer (R) 42%, Others 6%
- Minnesota-07 (Global Strategy Group--D):
Rep. Collin Peterson (D) 54%, Lee Byberg (R) 20%
- New Hampshire-01 (Univ of New Hampshire):
Frank Guinta (R) 48%, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 34%, Others 4%
- New Hampshire-02 (Univ of New Hampshire):
Ann Kuster (D) 43%, Charlie Bass (R) 36%, Others 4%
- Pennsylvania-04 (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Rep. Jason Altmire (D) 47%, Keith Rothfus (R) 36%
- South Carolina-02 (Anzalone Liszt--D):
Rep. Joe Wilson (R) 46%, Rob Miller (D) 39%
- Tennessee-04 (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Scott Desjarlais (R) 45%, Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) 40%
- Vermont-AL (Mason Dixon):
Rep. Peter Welch (D) 61%, Paul Beaudry (R) 25%
THE ANALYSIS: More than anything else, question marks abound in the House set of polls this weekend. Question one: We already took GOPers "We Ask America" with a grain of salt, but should we make it a pillar of salt after they not only claim Bob Dold is leading, but leading by double digits? Question two: Why in the name of all things would the GOPers in the Keystone State release that internal poll showing Jason Altmire beating their guy (Keith Rothfus) by double digits? Question three: Is the University of New Hampshire catching two separate trends in the Granite State (one Dem, one GOP), or are they just off the mark? Question four: will Democrat Allan Boyd ever bother counteracting these horrific internal polls coming out from the GOP side (or...scarier still...can he)?
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
- California Governor (Ipsos/Reuters):
Jerry Brown (D) 48%, Meg Whitman (R) 44%
- Connecticut Governor (Quinnipiac):
Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 42%
- Florida Governor (Susquehanna Research--R):
Alex Sink (D) 48%, Rick Scott (R) 45%
- Massachusetts Governor (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Charlie Baker (R) 42%, Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 35%, Tim Cahill (I) 10%
- Michigan Governor (Baydoun/Foster McCollum White):
Rick Snyder (R) 54%, Virg Bernero (D) 33%
- Minnesota Governor (SurveyUSA):
Mark Dayton (D) 42%, Tom Emmer (R) 37%, Tom Horner (I) 14%
- Nevada Governor (Mason Dixon):
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%, Rory Reid (D) 37%
- New Mexico Governor (SurveyUSA):
Susana Martinez (R) 54%, Diane Denish (D) 42%
- New York Governor (SurveyUSA):
Andrew Cuomo (D) 59%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%
- Ohio Governor (Univ of Cincinnati):
John Kasich (R) 51%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 43%
- Oregon Governor (SurveyUSA):
John Kitzhaber (D) 46%, Chris Dudley (R) 45%, Others 4%
- Rhode Island Governor (Alpha for Lincoln Chafee):
Lincoln Chafee (I) 34%, Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robitaille (R) 15%
- Vermont Governor (Mason Dixon):
Brian Dubie (R) 44%, Peter Shumlin (D) 43%
THE ANALYSIS: There is no shortage of "can you believe that?!" polls in the gubernatorial showdowns. Not surprised to see GOPer Charlie Baker's internals showing him strong, but up seven in a race that no pollster has had him leading for months?! Meanwhile, Lincoln Chafee also has an internal showing a lead that no one else (save for the Ras-sies) have found. One caveat on the Ohio poll: the Strickland team is complaining (with no small amount of justification) that the sample skews far more heavily Republican than any electorate that has shown up in Ohio in decades. Given recent early voter stats out of the state, it might indeed be a bit of putting the thumb on the scale. SurveyUSA follows the lead of Rasmussen, and shows John Kitzhaber finally forging a lead.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The House of Ras closes the week with some real Ras-esque numbers. Tom Tancredo right on Hick's heels! Christine O'Donnell ain't dead yet! Linda McMahon on the move!
They do break form on two polls: they have Michael Bennet back to a coinflip in Colorado with GOP challenger Ken Buck, and they have Jerry Brown up half a dozen points on Meg Whitman and her $140 million.
AK-Gov: Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 52%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 39%, Others 5%
CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 44%
CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 42%, Tom Tancredo (C) 38%, Dan Maes (R) 12%
CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) 47%, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 45%
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 51%, Linda McMahon (R) 46%
DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 51%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 40%
UT-Gov: Gov. Gary Herbert (R) 66%, Peter Corroon (D) 29%
UT-Sen: Mike Lee (R) 61%, Sam Granato (D) 28%