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On a day when lovely Southern California has weather more indigenous to the great Northwest (read: drizzly, gray and 60 degrees), it is a mixed day on the polling front. While one of two of the bad boys listed therein will brighten the day of Democrats, while others bear a clear resemblance to a towering cumulonimbus cloud.

Having flogged that weather analogy to death, let's move on to the weekend edition of the Wrap. And quite a pudgy edition of the Wrap it is, with a grand total of 39 polls closing the week.

THE U.S. SENATE

THE ANALYSIS: Today's smattering of Senate polls is (mostly) about confirming recent trends. Apparently the people of the Mountaineer State don't like being called "hicky", because John Raese has been in a little bit of a freefall as of late. In Washington, the question is whether the Rossi boomlet (which has clearly abated) was ever a real thing, or the product of the Ras/SUSA nexus. Ipsos has Carly Fiorina clawing back. Notably, they are no longer publishing their RV tallies, as they did earlier in the cycle. Perhaps they tired of people questioning the wide variance between the two.

THE U.S. HOUSE

THE ANALYSIS: More than anything else, question marks abound in the House set of polls this weekend. Question one: We already took GOPers "We Ask America" with a grain of salt, but should we make it a pillar of salt after they not only claim Bob Dold is leading, but leading by double digits? Question two: Why in the name of all things would the GOPers in the Keystone State release that internal poll showing Jason Altmire beating their guy (Keith Rothfus) by double digits? Question three: Is the University of New Hampshire catching two separate trends in the Granite State (one Dem, one GOP), or are they just off the mark? Question four: will Democrat Allan Boyd ever bother counteracting these horrific internal polls coming out from the GOP side (or...scarier still...can he)?

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

THE ANALYSIS: There is no shortage of "can you believe that?!" polls in the gubernatorial showdowns. Not surprised to see GOPer Charlie Baker's internals showing him strong, but up seven in a race that no pollster has had him leading for months?! Meanwhile, Lincoln Chafee also has an internal showing a lead that no one else (save for the Ras-sies) have found. One caveat on the Ohio poll: the Strickland team is complaining (with no small amount of justification) that the sample skews far more heavily Republican than any electorate that has shown up in Ohio in decades. Given recent early voter stats out of the state, it might indeed be a bit of putting the thumb on the scale. SurveyUSA follows the lead of Rasmussen, and shows John Kitzhaber finally forging a lead.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The House of Ras closes the week with some real Ras-esque numbers. Tom Tancredo right on Hick's heels! Christine O'Donnell ain't dead yet! Linda McMahon on the move!

They do break form on two polls: they have Michael Bennet back to a coinflip in Colorado with GOP challenger Ken Buck, and they have Jerry Brown up half a dozen points on Meg Whitman and her $140 million.

AK-Gov: Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 52%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 39%, Others 5%
CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 44%
CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 42%, Tom Tancredo (C) 38%, Dan Maes (R) 12%
CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) 47%, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 45%
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 51%, Linda McMahon (R) 46%
DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 51%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 40%
UT-Gov: Gov. Gary Herbert (R) 66%, Peter Corroon (D) 29%
UT-Sen: Mike Lee (R) 61%, Sam Granato (D) 28%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 07:40 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  ok (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elveta, citizenx, terjeanderson, Loli, keetz4

    it's been a little too long since the last KY Sen poll.

  •  Anybody got a feel in Colorado (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elveta, terjeanderson

    ...for the governor numbers?  I've seen Hickenlooper much further up than this, but Iknow that insane Tancredo has been moving up.  Is this Rass playing games, or real now that we're closer to the election?

    America, we can do better than this...

    by Randomfactor on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 07:44:08 PM PDT

    •  Living in Oregon, I have no clue. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Losty

      Not that I have a clue in general.

      However, I write separately on the Colorado Governor race, only to point out/ask/laugh "HA HA!" at the Ras-sters showing Dapper Dan Maes pulling down a one-two.

      If the Insane Tancredo really is within anything like a hooting distance of Hickenlooper, the possibility of America's Favorite Secret Agent Man (KS Division) pulling in less than ten percent could become a probability.

      I have read elsewhere on The KOS about CO GOPers expressing concern about Maes personally turning the Party into "minor party" status.  While that condition certainly would disappear in the next election cycle--it's certainly gotta put burrs in a number of saddles.  

  •  Ohio is depressing. Strickland wanted Fischer. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elveta, JoeW, Losty, Dog Chains

    Aint it grand. Two middle of the road racoons get run over.

    "They pour syrup on shit and tell us it's hotcakes." Meteor Blades

    by JugOPunch on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 07:48:33 PM PDT

  •  What's going on in Cali? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elveta, citizenx

    I thought Boxer had that one basically secured?  

    Imagine Pelosi having to have the gavel over to Boehner, and the shit eating grin he'll have as the GOP caucus erupts into raucous applause.

    by Jonze on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 07:48:51 PM PDT

  •  Anything for Russ ? (0+ / 0-)

    The Tea Party coloring book only requires one crayon; . WHITE ~ Someone tweeted to Keith Olbermann

    by WeBetterWinThisTime on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 07:50:47 PM PDT

    •  Wisconsin ? (0+ / 0-)

      The Tea Party coloring book only requires one crayon; . WHITE ~ Someone tweeted to Keith Olbermann

      by WeBetterWinThisTime on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 07:51:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  DSCC and Feingold camp have released internals (7+ / 0-)

      Feingold's poll had him tied among "most likely voters" and leading among likely voters. DSCC had him a point behind.

      Russ sure as hell ain't dead yet.

      Glad Dayton's leading in MN. Pro-marriage equality, pro-single payer, budget solution is raising taxes on fat cats, it's a wonder this guy doesn't get many props from liberals.

      •  Dayton didn't get as much credit because (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        keetz4, Seph Tanner

        he was sort of quiet in the Senate.  but i think a lot of that was because he lost heart after lowing Wellstone.  

        He's been very vocal in the gov race that he's going to propose raising taxes on the wealthy, and push for single payer health care.  he doesn't back down from those statements and it's really nice to see that he's still in the lead while doing so.  

        with a strong Dem majority in both houses in MN, it's likely he'll get what he's pushing for.  

        •  I voted for Kelliher in the primaries but (0+ / 0-)

          Ultimately I feel Dayton is the better, more liberal candidate. Kelliher started back-tracking her support for the MN health care plan (the single-payer bill). Dayton also has very high name recognition here, and is especially popular with seniors. Can't wait to cast my ballot for him on election day.

  •  If we can hold governorship losses to five (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elveta, Corneliusmingus, Loli

    While picking up Florida and California, that would take away some of the sting of losing the House.  

  •  If I wanted to manipulate public opinion, (9+ / 0-)

    I would fabricate Likely Voter models that were heavily in my favor and I would poll, poll, poll.

  •  I really think CW on this one is going to get (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, citizenx, katesmom

    flipped on its head. 50 house seats for a party that has spent 2 years running against the results of its record and on its ability to try to get absolutely nothing done seems like an odd strategy. The "we're terrible but the other guy is worse" seems like a bad way to swing a large populus. And for a "new" movement, their sure our a lot of retreads running around. But I guess we'll see in a few weeks.

  •  If Colorado elects a piece of shit like (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, citizenx, Dog Chains

    Tancredo, I'll write that state off as verging on Fascism.

    Tancredo's a disgusting puke who appeals to the worst in America.

    Sickening.

    Oh, make me wanna holler /And throw up both my hands--Marvin Gaye

    by Wildthumb on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 07:59:59 PM PDT

  •  Why nothing on GA-gov? (0+ / 0-)

    Curious.

    •  There Were Some Numbers... (0+ / 0-)

      Earlier in the week. Deal (R) up over Barnes (D) in the high single digits.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 08:51:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Shouldn't Brown & Boxer (0+ / 0-)

    be leading/trailing by roughly the same amount?

    I can't see many people saying they like Brown/Carly or Meg/Boxer.

    I'll look at my navel after the midterms.

    by citizenx on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 08:03:14 PM PDT

    •  I guess they are within the moe (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bonsai66

      I'll look at my navel after the midterms.

      by citizenx on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 08:03:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And of the two Meg/Boxer would probably (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      citizenx, terjeanderson, bythesea

      make more sense.  Not the vice versa we're getting from the polls now.

      Imagine Pelosi having to have the gavel over to Boehner, and the shit eating grin he'll have as the GOP caucus erupts into raucous applause.

      by Jonze on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 08:04:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Honestly, Living Here... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      citizenx, Bonsai66

      Fiorina's ads are better. They're smarmy, but a tad effective. Boxer's ads are pretty good, too, though. She has run a really excellent air campaign, IMHO. Fiorina's kinda sucked early, but I think it has improved.

      Whitman, meanwhile has an annoying habit of running the exact same ad INTO THE GROUND. If I have to hear her talk about cynicism about California's greatness being (her words) "a bunch of baloney" for another three weeks, I am looking into real estate in Seattle...

      :)

      Plus, the air war is a lot less effective for Whitman, who has run so many goddamned ads that she hit diminishing returns in...like...June.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 08:54:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Rove and tom Donohue are paying for Fiorina ads (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser, Bonsai66

        Just donated to Boxer tonight. We are a cell ph family. No landlines and 4 votes for Brown and Boer each here. Never get calls from pollsters.

        Diabetes Care In California Public Schools. See Bio for settlement details link. July 2009 http://www.dredf.org/diabetes/

        by foggycity on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 09:03:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  As you note, there's NO WAY Dold is up in IL-10.. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    terjeanderson, dotster

    and, REALLY NO WAY it's that far apart in Dold's favor.  This is the third time around for Seals, and, it's a D+10-ish district, and Dold is too far right for the district.

    Whomever took this poll is ahead of him/herself with the pot legalization thing, as it's not even on the ballot yet in IL.  :-)

  •  Came home tonight from a rally in Barre VT..... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, citizenx, terjeanderson, Losty

    Sen. Leahy, Congressman Welch both spoke on behalf of our state candidates, particularly Gov.-elect Peter Shumlin, who is in a dead heat race. Sen. Sanders spoke too although he's nor up for election this year.

    Leahy & Welch are so far ahead they didn't even talk about themselves, and Leahy handed over a $36,000 check from his treasury to help the state races.

    Leahy, Sanders & Welch. I don't think there's a state with a more progressive delegation & I'm proud to be a Vermonter!

    "So, am I right or what?"

    by itzik shpitzik on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 08:09:50 PM PDT

  •  That Il. 10 poll is very puzzling. The Hill had (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    katesmom, keetz4

    Dan Seals up 12 points this week.  That's quite a switch, must have called a different block of houses.  I'm starting not to believe any polls.  They're all haywire and all over the place this election, up and down and all around.  Calling 750 people on landlines and declaring a leader just doesn't inspire confidence.

  •  Good-bye, Allen Boyd (0+ / 0-)

    The only good Blue Dog is one that's sitting at home.

    www.halperinism.com - Because someone had to do it. And why not me, a doctor?

    by Dr Jeff Gilooly on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 08:15:37 PM PDT

  •  I got some campaign stuff from republican (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Voodoo king

    senate race Rossi today, normally I only get dem stuff except local...I tore it to pieces angry that they have all this extra $$$ to spend from corporations!

  •  The DALLAS MORNING NEWS endorsed BILL WHITE (8+ / 0-)

    today.

    This site will not admit that race exists. The second most Republican paper in the entire State of Texas has now endorsed the Democrat -- and has called out the GOP incumbent in the most scathing terms available.

    The Democratic challenger is fewer than 7 points down even in Rasmussen polling. There's more than 7 points of undecided voters in the results.

    Austin, Beaumont, Corpus Christi, Galveston, and Houston's major papers, along with the Hays Free Press (a county-wide paper in the Capitol area) have endorsed Bill White.

    The papers in Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and San Antonio have not made endorsement announcements yet.

     But the Dallas Morning News has endorsed Bill White.

    Yes, it's Texas.

    A Democrat could be governor here.

    If you're in Texas or Oklahoma or New Mexico or Louisiana, help GOTV for BILL WHITE.

    Rick Perry's got to go.

    LBJ & Lady Bird, Sully Sullenberger, Molly Ivins, Barbara Jordan, Ann Richards, Drew Brees: Texas is No Bush League! -7.50,-5.59

    by BlackSheep1 on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 08:28:04 PM PDT

    •  i agree! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BlackSheep1, Losty, keetz4

      latest poll on white this week:
      46 perry, 41 white, 5 glass, 7 undecided. it will be close as undecideds break late. gotv i skey here. i ve neevr seen the papers so pro dem. in houston we have th eopportunity to oust enarly 100 repubs. 100. and the hou crhon has backed most!

    •  FYI.... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      realnrh, TruthOfAngels, Losty, James Allen

      We have covered the TX-Gov race on the front page, in some form or another, sixty-nine times in the last six months.

      There are roughly 575 races for Congress, Senate, and Governor, to say nothing of the very important battles for state legislatures from coast-to-coast. They aren't all going to get daily wall-to-wall treatment.

      I know that grates people who have a particularly strong interest in a race, but what is...is. Read the comments to this particular feature on any given night, and 3-5 of those comments are folks in Maine, or Michigan, or (tonight!) Georgia, complaining about why their race isn't getting covered.

      I like White's chances, though I'd like them more if that gap narrowed just a little bit more. The GOP's planting of a Green Party candidate back in the Spring might be the margin here, which would be eminently frustrating.

      I hope that the final results suggest otherwise, of course.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 09:00:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The daily polling roundup features gubernatorial (0+ / 0-)

        races every day and is on the front page every night.

        Where's the coverage of the Texas race in it? Show me:

        THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

        California Governor (Ipsos/Reuters):
        Jerry Brown (D) 48%, Meg Whitman (R) 44%

        Connecticut Governor (Quinnipiac):
        Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 42%

        Florida Governor (Susquehanna Research--R):
        Alex Sink (D) 48%, Rick Scott (R) 45%

        Massachusetts Governor (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
        Charlie Baker (R) 42%, Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 35%, Tim Cahill (I) 10%

        Michigan Governor (Baydoun/Foster McCollum White):
        Rick Snyder (R) 54%, Virg Bernero (D) 33%

        Minnesota Governor (SurveyUSA):
        Mark Dayton (D) 42%, Tom Emmer (R) 37%, Tom Horner (I) 14%

        Nevada Governor (Mason Dixon):
        Brian Sandoval (R) 52%, Rory Reid (D) 37%

        New Mexico Governor (SurveyUSA):
        Susana Martinez (R) 54%, Diane Denish (D) 42%

        New York Governor (SurveyUSA):
        Andrew Cuomo (D) 59%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%

        Ohio Governor (Univ of Cincinnati):
        John Kasich (R) 51%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 43%

        Oregon Governor (SurveyUSA):
        John Kitzhaber (D) 46%, Chris Dudley (R) 45%, Others 4%

        Rhode Island Governor (Alpha for Lincoln Chafee):
        Lincoln Chafee (I) 34%, Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robitaille (R) 15%

        Vermont Governor (Mason Dixon):
        Brian Dubie (R) 44%, Peter Shumlin (D) 43%

        THE ANALYSIS: There is no shortage of "can you believe that?!" polls in the gubernatorial showdowns. Not surprised to see GOPer Charlie Baker's internals showing him strong, but up seven in a race that no pollster has had him leading for months?! Meanwhile, Lincoln Chafee also has an internal showing a lead that no one else (save for the Ras-sies) have found. One caveat on the Ohio poll: the Strickland team is complaining (with no small amount of justification) that the sample skews far more heavily Republican than any electorate that has shown up in Ohio in decades. Given recent early voter stats out of the state, it might indeed be a bit of putting the thumb on the scale. SurveyUSA follows the lead of Rasmussen, and shows John Kitzhaber finally forging a lead.

        You bet I'm being belligerent. I live in Texas.
        My senators are Kay Bailey Hutchison and John Boxturtle, and my Congressional Representative is Randy "Baby Killer!" Neugebauer.

        Any number of races may be more entertaining, more photogenic, more important to the East Coast. But this is Texas.

        Taking the Texas governorship away from the GOP is the kind of coup the national party, let alone a site dedicated to electing more and better Democrats, ought to be salivating, war-dancing, and pushing constantly toward -- especially given a hard-charging candidate with sound ideas, a good record, and a positive image as the leader of successful response to Hurricane Katrina.

        Bill White won a Profiles in Courage award for how he took care of our neighbors from Louisiana and the Gulf Coast as well as the citizens of Texas following the landfall of Hurricane Katrina, followed one month later by Hurricane Rita.

        To paraphrase an old Texas bumper sticker,

        "Gee, I Miss Governor Dean!"

        LBJ & Lady Bird, Sully Sullenberger, Molly Ivins, Barbara Jordan, Ann Richards, Drew Brees: Texas is No Bush League! -7.50,-5.59

        by BlackSheep1 on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 09:49:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Your Belligerence Is Misguided.... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          realnrh, TruthOfAngels, Losty

          Those races all have something in common. SOMEONE POLLED THEM in the last three days. I agree that it is problematic that no one has polled the race in nine days (I checked...TX-Gov was on the 10/7 Wrap, a Rasmussen poll, of all things).

          I could invent data, I suppose, but that wouldn't be terribly helpful. Nor ethical.

          Blame the pollsters of America. Blame the campaigns for not blasting out internal polling. But I find it a bit problematic that you are haranguing DK in general, and me in particular, for not reporting on polls that don't exist.

          "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
          Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
          Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

          by Steve Singiser on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 10:45:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Now Wait a Minute Here..... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            realnrh

            You mean the daily Polling & Political Wrap only reviews polls that came out that day?  I thought "daily" was your middle name or something--not that it had anything to do with the calendar....

            And you don't make shit up?  Fat chance YOU have, getting bought up by Rupert or the Ras-sters.

            I remain:
            Indignant.

            Bill Abendroth

        •  Umm... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Steve Singiser

          The wrap only shows polls that came out that day. The last poll that came out in Texas was the Rasmussen poll on the 7th. The polling wrap doesn't list every race, just the ones that had a poll come out that day. And lo and behold, that Rasmussen poll was included in the Ras-dump at the end on 10/7. The wrap doesn't generally do a list of endorsements, just polls.

          NH4JL DIT '04, NHDP DIT '08!

          by realnrh on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 10:45:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  BTW...Point of Clarification.... (0+ / 0-)

      Rasmussen is being Rasmussen again. Their latest poll of the race had Perry, predictably, up double digits.

      I'd love to see another pollster hit this race. It's been a while since we got a fresh poll here.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 09:01:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Slink/back2basics covers it really well (0+ / 0-)

      in the diaries.  

      Imagine Pelosi having to have the gavel over to Boehner, and the shit eating grin he'll have as the GOP caucus erupts into raucous applause.

      by Jonze on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 09:06:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Dayton's still looking good. (0+ / 0-)
  •  Steve, why do we so rarely see MD-GOV (0+ / 0-)

    in the poll wrap? You've got a sitting governor running for re-election against the guy he ousted 4 years ago. Outsiders may consider MD a bright blue state but in truth the political map is scarlet-to-magenta overlaid with two large blue blobs (Balto & DC metro areas). All the conventional whizzdumb says this ought to be a real horse race...& what do we hear? Crickets. Isn't anyone polling the damn race?

    snarcolepsy, n: a condition in which the sufferer responds to any comment with a smartass comeback.

    by Uncle Cosmo on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 08:59:54 PM PDT

    •  It Got Hit About Ten Days Ago.... (0+ / 0-)

      Both Rasmussen and the Washington Post polled it, and it looks like O'Malley is pulling away a bit. Rasmussen had it at seven. WaPo at eleven.

      My guess is that one of the reasons it is underpolled is because people are starting to become convinced that if Ehrlich isn't dead even now, it is hard to imagine a scenario where he wins it. I tend to agree, but I think this is a really bizarre cycle, and I am taking nothing for granted.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 09:03:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The OR-Gov poll is encouraging (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HappyMichBlogger, James Allen, ddn, keetz4

    Rasmussen had Kitzhaber up this past week as well, so this is good. Both Rasmussen and Survey USA trend lines are in Kitzhaber's favor, and this past week are the first ones of the race where our team is ahead. No letting up, we need to make sure Democrats come home, because we can't afford to have the GOP take the Gov. seat.

    cheers,

    Mitch Gore

    Who is a Tea Partier? Someone who listens to Glenn Beck. Who's an anti-Tea Partier? Someone who understands Glenn Beck

    by Lestatdelc on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 09:50:32 PM PDT

    •  Where are Kitz's ads? (0+ / 0-)

      He's released a grand total of two ads since August, and the last one was over a month ago. Obviously he's being outspent, and he couldn't hope to match Dudley on the ad war, but no ads in the last monthl? Obviously his strategy is to use superior GOTV in the next two weeks (with Obama's Wednesday visit a call to arms), but shouldn't he have trumpeted his debate performance in an ad along with highlights of Dudley's ineptitude? If he doesn't make it, God forbid, there will certainly be regret that he vetoed the anti-Dudley ad that the Democratic governors were going to produce for him.

      •  They have had a new ad out for the past two weeks (0+ / 0-)

        One in which my best friends dad appears in (hint: he's not the kid or the single mom):

        Here is the latest one they started running yesterday:

        cheers,

        Mitch Gore

        Who is a Tea Partier? Someone who listens to Glenn Beck. Who's an anti-Tea Partier? Someone who understands Glenn Beck

        by Lestatdelc on Sun Oct 17, 2010 at 04:44:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  UNH poll was the usual Andy Smith waste of time. (0+ / 0-)

    That poll that had Guinta up big over Shea-Porter? The sample was 40% Republicans, 25% Democrats - that is, registered Republicans and Democrats, before asking independents which party they leaned toward. The statewide Republican registration edge, last I looked, was 0.4%, not 15%. Rebalance the sample to assume something not outrageously out of line with state demographics and that Guinta lead vanishes just like Frank's explanations for where he got the $355,000 he's using to fund his campaign with (hint: he got it from his parents in an illegal donation and is stonewalling; he could release a bank statement showing he had the money in 2007 like he claimed and make the issue go away if he really had had it).

    NH4JL DIT '04, NHDP DIT '08!

    by realnrh on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 10:50:06 PM PDT

    •  My Only Concern On the $$$ Thing... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      realnrh

      is that he only needs to stonewall for another couple of weeks.

      We have found a LOT of polling assuming partisan demographics that have simply never existed in the modern era, not even (in many cases) in 1994!! Maybe, but I am a real skeptic about that.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 10:52:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly (0+ / 0-)

        The 1994 NH results had an edge in Republican turnout of about 6%. The UNH poll here is literally assuming that there will be two-and-a-half times as big as gap as the largest turnout gap in modern voting in New Hampshire. It should be noted, too, that the 1994 results came when Republicans did have a substantial registration edge.

        As for Guinta, even if he were to get elected, the issue doesn't go away. If he did have a bank account with that much in it, then he committed tax fraud and the IRS will have to investigate (including finding out how he managed to get various low-income student loans with that much cash lying around). Several papers have already pointed out that it is literally mathematically impossible for Guinta's claims to have made it in real estate investments to be true, given the properties he was publicly recorded buying. And his parents just sold their house right before he officially ran...

        NH4JL DIT '04, NHDP DIT '08!

        by realnrh on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 10:59:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  FL-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    Is that correct? Sink up three in the a GOP poll? Souunds odd, but if so, that's absolutely great news! Getting the governorship there should be some consolation for Senator Rubio.

  •  So Lee is Officially DMW.Figuratively, of course. (0+ / 0-)

    And Coons only up 11??  Against one of the 10 Craziest candidates in 2 cycles??

    Barb only up 1??

    Hickenlooper only up 4??

    Scary numbers..

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