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With contributions from The Hill and CNN, it is a fairly busy Wednesday on the Wrap. In all, we are looking at 39 polls from coast-to-coast.

Today, to be certain, has fewer positives for the Democrats than yesterday's incarnation of the Wrap. The ten polls of key House races by The Hill was particularly pessimistic, with only a quartet of polls that Democrats can take any heart in at all.

However, there were some highlights as well. Democrats have to like what they see from the Senate in Pennsylvania, from the House in Michigan, and from the gubernatorial battles in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

All that (and more!) in the mid-week edition of the Wrap...


THE ANALYSIS: This set of Senate polls is nowhere near as optimistic as Tuesday's polls, but there are still some things to hearten the blue team. The first poll of the list (received late last night) was the best one--Joe Sestak moving into a lead, according to Muhlenberg. After that, it went downhill a bit. GOP pollsters Wilson Research becomes the first pollster in about eight weeks to show a Carly Fiorina lead (grains of salt, of course). Boxer fans will note, however, that the right-wing pollster was contradicted within hours by local independent pollsters PPIC, which gave Boxer a five-point edge. Meanwhile, CNN, yet again, shows a pretty sizeable gap between LVs and RVs. For example, if you go with the figures among registered voters: Boozman's lead drops to 11 in Arkansas, Rubio's lead drops to 7 in Florida, and (most markedly) Portman's lead in Ohio goes all the way down to six points. As for the other polls, Mason Dixon pours a bit of cold water on the Conway surge scenario found by other pollsters, while we can all now remember fondly when pollsters thought New York was going to be a close race.


THE ANALYSIS: The bulk of the House polling today comes from the series of polls published by The Hill. By and large, they are a mountain of suck for the Democrats. The shocker is that the guy who (arguably) is in the most Democratic of the ten districts polled (Illinois' Rep. Phil Hare) is actually doing the worst--he trails Bobby Schilling by seven points. Five other Dem incumbents trail by more modest margins. One could make the argument that two of them (Wisconsin's Steve Kagen and Illinois' Bill Foster) might be doing a tiny bit better than the conventional wisdom by trailing by a single point. John Hall (NY-19) and Chris Carney (PA-10) are both deadlocked. The good news: Dems in the lead include Patrick Murphy (PA-08) and Mike Arcuri (NY-24). Other potentially vulnerable Democrats are holding leads, as prominent local pollsters EPIC-MRA give the edge to both Mark Schauer (MI-07) and Gary Peters (MI-09). Republicans had designs on the suburban Oregon 1st district, but it looks like Democratic incumbent David Wu is in good shape.


THE ANALYSIS: The big headline, of course, is in Ohio, where Ted Strickland actually moves into a one-point lead over Republican John Kasich, according to CNN. Speaking of CNN, the RV/LV gap is generally not as notable in their gubernatorial surveys, but there is a mammoth exception: the Sunshine State of Florida. While Republican Rick Scott leads the CNN poll by three among likely voters, Democrat Alex Sink actually enjoys a five-point edge among registered voters. Meanwhile, two pollsters confirm a little bit of movement in Pennsylvania, where Democrat Dan Onorato appears to be making some headway. Meanwhile, in the Empire State, the Carl Paladino implosion continues unabated.

It is late enough in the cycle now that if this is mere narrative setting by the House of Ras, it will kill their post-election reputation. Their numbers today are way outside of the mainstream, particularly in West Virginia (where they are the only ones showing Republican John Raese pulling away) and Florida (where they give Rick Scott a huge lead).

We'll know in thirteen days if they were prescient, or engaging in conservative hackery.

FL-Gov: Rick Scott (R) 50%, Alex Sink (D) 44%
IL-Sen: Mark Kirk (R) 44%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%
MO-Sen: Roy Blunt (R) 52%, Robin Carnahan (D) 43%
WV-Sen: John Raese (R) 50%, Joe Manchin (D) 43%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Oct 20, 2010 at 07:46 PM PDT.

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