Early voting numbers are beginning to accumulate, allowing some measure of the "enthusiasm gap" at this early stage of voting.
An invaluable resource for tracking early voting trends is United States Election Project
Voter registration numbers can be found at Partisan Voter Registration by State
Here are some indicators from early voting states:
North Carolina
Democrats
Registered voter percentage: 44%
Turnout percentage to date: 44%
Republicans
Registered voter percentage: 34%
Turnout percentage to date: 38%
Republicans so far have a +4% enthusiasm edge (Democratic voters still outnumber Republican voters, but Republicans are turning out a 5% larger share of their base). Independents seem to be waiting.
Iowa
Democrats
Registered voter percentage: 34%
Turnout percentage to date: 47%
Republicans
Registered voter percentage: 31%
Turnout percentage to date: 38%
Partisan voters are turning out at a much faster clip than independents, but Democrats are really kicking ass. The enthusiasm gap is Dem +7; that is, Democrats have turned out 7% more of their base in addition to having higher raw numbers.
Maine
Democrats
Registered voter percentage: 33%
Turnout percentage to date: 36%
Republicans
Registered voter percentage: 28%
Turnout percentage to date: 37%
Maine Republicans are enthused! The enthusiasm gap is Rep +6
Louisiana
Democrats
Registered voter percentage: 51%
Turnout percentage to date: 47%
Republicans
Registered voter percentage: 26%
Turnout percentage to date: 43%
Louisiana Republicans are enthused, too. Enthusiasm gap: Rep +20.
Louisiana is the one state where early voting supports the huge enthusiasm gap shown in the WSJ and Gallup polls.
Nevada
Jon Ralston of the Las Vegas Sun is blogging on this every day at Jon Ralston's Blog His calculations arrive at the same comparison in a different manner; he calculates percentage of registered Dems who have turned out compared to percentage of registered Reps who have turned out. Here is what he says today:
Total urban turnout relative to registration:
Democrats: 12.1 percent
Republicans: 13.6 percent
Remember: Usual turnout disadvantage for Democrats here in midterms is 5 or 6 percent. (It was 3 percent even in the huge Democrat year of 2008.)
Ohio
Heavily Democratic Cuyahoga and Franklin counties are seeing large early voting turnout (21.2% of 2006 votes, and 23.7% of 2006 votes, respectively, so far). Early voting is very easy in those two counties, which may explain the turnout, but there doesn't seem to be lack of enthusiasm in those Democratic counties.
UPDATE: Per The Nephew's Diary
In Florida "Early Voted: Republicans lead by 15,281 votes – a 11.32% lead (Monday and Tuesday). In 2008, Republicans were losing by 73,384 votes at this point in 2008. By Election Day, Republicans had lost the Early Vote by 23.97%."
So, it's a mixed bag. So far, a disproportionate Republican turnout advantage can be seen in the South (Florida and Louisiana), and to a lesser extent in Maine. Nevada, Iowa and Ohio may be yielding good news.
But... no one knows what the Independents are thinking, and they may be the key to everything.