As one reads Ehrlich appears to be losing GOP traction,
The poll shows O'Malley (D) ahead of Ehrlich (R) 54 to 40 percent among likely voters, despite majorities who rate Maryland's economy as not so good or poor and who say they are dissatisfied or angry with the federal government.
In May, the Washington Post poll had found more people trusting Erlich with the economy than current Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley. But now O'Malley leads on that measure 51-40 and "by slightly smaller margins, on the budget and taxes. "
Each candidate is drawing about 90% of his own party, while Independent voters favor Ehrlich, 52 to 36 percent.
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How then does O'Malley have such a large lead? Consider this:
Fully 49 percent of likely voters identify as Democrats, about double the 25 percent who call themselves Republicans.
Maryland, where I teach, may well still be the most heavily Democratic state by party registration. Erlich winning election 8 years ago was more a function of the incompetence of the Democratic candidate - then Lt. Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (daughter of RFK) - and her campaign than it was of Erlich's effectiveness as a Governor. She picked a white, former Republican and former Superintendent of USNA at Annapolis which gave Erlich an opening, and he picked Michael Steele. No, Erlich did not win many black votes, but a lot of black voters stayed home.
By contrast, O'Malley's running mate and current partner as Lt. Gov., Anthony Brown, was a state legislator from Prince George's County who also served overseas when his reserve unit was activated.
Erlich brough in his good friend Rudy Giuliani for an event in the rural Northern - and more conservative - part of Montgomery County, the most populous jurisdiction in the state, hoping to improve his numbers in a jurisdiction he lost in his previous two runs, winning 38% in 2002 and 37% in 2006. It does not seem to be helping, as the poll shows him losing the County 65-33.
An examination of two other key areas also helps fill out the picture.
Ehrlich racked up lopsided margins in the Baltimore suburbs en route to his upset victory in 2002. But the most recent Post poll shows him with only a modest lead over O'Malley, 49 to 43 percent, in the five counties of Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Cecil, Harford and Howard.
Turnout in Prince George's, Maryland's largest majority-black jurisdiction, is among the biggest keys to O'Malley's reelection hopes. The poll shows O'Malley leading in the county, 83 to 11 percent, an even stronger showing than in 2006.
Full disclosure - I teach in Prince George's. When Parris Glendening narrowly won election over Rep. Ellen Sauerbrey in 1994, by less than 6,000 votes, he won only Baltimore City, and Montgomery and Prince George's County. Those two counties, bordering the District of Columbia, are always key to Democratic hopes in state-wide elections.
Black voters are of course key to Democratic hopes.
Among black voters statewide, O'Malley dominates Ehrlich, 88 to 6 percent. African Americans were 21 percent of all likely voters in the poll, close to the average of 22 percent in the previous three gubernatorial contests. White voters side more narrowly with Ehrlich, 50 to 44 percent.
That advantage among white voters represents a decline for Erlich, who won 64% of white voters when he was elected 8 years ago.
One big reason for O'Malley's substantial lead is that this is one race where the money advantage clearly belongs to O'Malley, who has spent $6 million in advertising in the past 6 weeks, about twice as much as Erlich.
Also, Erlich is not someone who has strong tea party support - in fact, he had a primary opponent, businessman Brian Murphy, who was endorsed by Sarah Palin.
O'Malley aired his first negative ad last month:
The ad says that as governor, Ehrlich raised "$3 billion in taxes and fees," and it takes him to task for trying to parse a difference between a tax and a fee, with a woman saying that if it comes out of her pocket, "it's a tax.
That apparently had some real traction.
He now has commanding leads on issues of importance to voters, such as on education. Now the Governor leads on that issue 62-27 when voters are asked who would do a better job, a significant increase from May when his margin was only 47-36. It helps that one organization ranked Maryland #1 in education (which I think is laughable, and remember I teach in the state) and the Governor was able to tout that in his first ad.
The poll was conducted Oct. 19 to 22.
It included 2,355 randomly selected adults, of whom 1,962 were registered voters and 1,434 likely voters. It as a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Here's one thing I think MAY make a difference. In the DC suburbs, which include both Montgomery and Prince George's counties, but extend into the Baltimore suburbs of Howard and Anne Arundel counties as well, news about the national government is local news - remember that these locations contain the residences of many Federal government workers. As a group that local population probably has more voters knowledgeable about the achievements of the Obama administration - and awareness of the possible threat that Republican control of Congress would represent - than is true across the rest of the nation. The three Congressmen who represent the region - Chris Van Hollen, Donna Edwards, and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer - are under no threat whatsoever, despite the apparent national mood.
It is possible that Tuesday might be bleak for Democrats. Not in Maryland. Not for Governor O'Malley, nor for the other statewide elected officials, Attorney General Doug Gansler and Comptroller Peter Franchot.
And keep this in mind - remember what I said about how Glendening won his first victory winning only 3 jurisdictions. Then note this about the homes of the statewide Democratic ticket
Gov. Martin O'Malley, former Mayor of Baltimore
Lt. Gov. Anthony Johnson from Prince George's County
the other two from Montgomery County.
Glad I could bring some good news to this site today.