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Summary:
 PA has 19 representatives: 10 D, 8 R
 RI has  2 representatives, both D
 SC has 6 reps: 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats
 SD has 1 rep: A Democrat

Possibly vulnerable:
  PA-03 (D)
  PA-04 (D)
  PA-06 (R)
  PA-07 (D)
  PA-08 (D)
  PA-10 (D)
  PA-11 (D)
  PA-12 (D)
  PA-15 (R)
  PA-16 (R)
  RI-01 (D)
  SC-02 (R)
  SC-05 (D)
  SD-AL (D)

Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser's diaries here on daily Kos (which I checked for about 3 weeks).

District: PA-01
Location  Philadelphia and suburbs  map
Cook PVI D + 35
Representative Robert Brady (D)
VoteView  83
First elected 1998
2008 margin 91-9 over Mike Muhammad
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 86-13
Obama margin 88-12
Bush margin 2004 15-84
Current opponents None
Demographics   14th lowest income (median = $28K), 52nd fewest Whites (33%), 27th most Blacks (45%), 9th most Democratic
Assessment No opponent

District: PA-02
Location Philadelphia and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 38
Representative  Chaka Fattah (D)
VoteView 77
First elected 1994
2008 margin 89-11 over Adam Lang
2006 margin 89-9
2004 margin 88-12
Obama margin 90-10
Bush margin 2004 12-87
Current opponents Rick Hellberg
Demographics   Demographics  32nd lowest income (median = $31K), 46th fewest Whites (29.9%), 7th most Blacks (60.7%). 4th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Fattah raised and spent a lot and now has little COH; Hellberg has very little.

District: PA-03
Location Northwestern PA, bordering Lake Erie, OH, and NY map
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Kathy Dahlkemper (D) over incumbent Phil English
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-48
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Mike Kelly
Demographics    33rd most Whites (93.7%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Dahlkemper ousted Phil English, who had been in the House since 1994; she has $600 K COH, Kelly has $215K but is self-financed. Dahlkemper should be OK, but she is a freshman in a swing district. A recent Republican poll had Kelly up 56-39.  An independent poll had Kelly up 44-37, and another had him up 49-36
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Lean R

District: PA-04
Location   Western PA, bordering OH map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative  Jason Altmire (D)
VoteView 236
First elected 2006
2008 margin 56-44 over Melissa Hart
2006 margin 52-48
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Keith Rothfus
Demographics   21st most White (94.3%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Altmire ousted Hart in 2006; he has $600 K COH; Rothfus has $130K, but that includes a hefty loan.  This is a Republican district, but Altmire, one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, seems to suit it.  A recent Republican poll had Altmire up 47-35, another R poll had him up 47-36
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Safe

District: PA-05
Location Northern PA, bordering NY map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Glenn Thompson (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 57-41 over Mark McCracken
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Michael Pipe
Demographics   32nd most rural (54%), 6th lowest income (median = $33K), 6th most Whites (96%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%).  
Assessment Safe for Republican.  Thompson has $250K COH, Pipe has little.

District: PA-06
Location West of Philadelphia map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Jim Gerlach (R)
VoteView 253
First elected 2002
2008 margin 52-48
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin 51-49
Obama margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Manan Trivedi
Demographics   70th highest income (median = $56K)  
Assessment A prime pickup possibility.  This district is trending Democratic, and Gerlach won narrowly in every election.  Gerlach has $370K COH, Trivedi $280K.  A recent poll had Gerlach up 54-44
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Lean R

District: PA-07
Location  Southeastern PA, bordering DE, including King of Prussia  map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Joe Sestak (D) Running for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Current opponents Bryan Lentz (D) vs. Patrick Meehan (R)
Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment This district is fairly Democratic, but most analysts seem to call this a tossup.  Lentz has almost $400K COH, Meehan about $600 K.  A recent poll had Meehan up 34-31, another 40-39, and another 49-45
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Lean R

District: PA-08
Location The southeast corner of PA, bordering NJ; mostly Bucks County  map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Patrick Murphy (D)
VoteView 187
First elected 2006
2008 margin 57-42 over Tom Manion
2006 margin 1418 votes out of 250,000
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Mike Fitzpatrick
Demographics    44th highest income (median = $59K)
Assessment Murphy has $600 K COH, Fitzpatrick about $500 K.  A recent poll had Murphy up by 3, another had Fitzpatrick up by 5
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup

District: PA-09
Location The central part of southern PA, bordering MD and a little of WV  map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Bill Shuster (R)
VoteView 340
First elected 2001
2008 margin 64-36 over Tony Barr
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 69-30
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 19th most rural (59.5%), 3rd most White (96.4%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%), 2nd fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino.  
Assessment No opponent

District: PA-10
Location Northeastern PA, bordering NY and NJ map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Christopher Carney (D)
VoteView 234
First elected 2006
2008 margin 56-44 over Chris Hackett
2006 margin 53-47
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Current opponents Tom Marino
Demographics 27th most rural (55.4%), 9th most White (95.5%), 71st least Black (1.9%), 51st least Latinos (1.4%)
Assessment This is a fairly vulnerable district, at R +8; Carney has about $270K COH, Marino has little.  A recent poll had it tied, a Republican poll had Marino ahead 41-37. Another had Marino up 44-38, and another 47-42 but a Democratic poll had Carney ahead by 48-41
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup

District: PA-11
Location Eastern PA, including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre  map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Paul Kanjorski (D)
VoteView 169.5
First elected 1984
2008 margin 52-48 over Lou Barletta
2006 margin 72-28
2004 margin 94-6 against a minor party
Obama margin 57-42
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Current opponents Lou Barletta
Demographics 97th lowest income (median = $35K)  
Assessment Vulnerable.  Kanjorski has $400 K COH, Barletta about $200K but self-financed. A poll had Barletta ahead 43-41, another had him ahead 47-40
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup

District: PA-12
Location An odd, thready district in southwest PA map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Mark Critz(D)
VoteView NA
First elected  Won special election against Burns in 2010 after John Murtha died
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Tim Burns
Demographics    32nd poorest (median income = $31K), 16th most Whites (95.0%).  3rd fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Murtha won here easily, year after year, but with him gone, it's more vulnerable.  Burns has about $250 K.
Critz about $50K.    A Republican poll had Critz up 43-36
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Lean D

District: PA-13
Location Northeast Philadelphia and suburbs and exurbs of Philadelphia  map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Allyson Schwartz (D)
VoteView 162
First elected 2004
2008 margin 63-35 over Marina Kats
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 56-44
Obama margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 43-56
Current opponents Dee Adcock
Demographics   Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe.  Schwartz has $2.3 million COH, Adcock about $175K but self-financed.

District: PA-14
Location Pittsburgh and suburbs  map
Cook PVI D + 19
Representative Mike Doyle (D)
VoteView 112.5
First elected 1994
2008 margin 91-9 over a Green party candidate
2006 margin 90-10 (against a green)
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 70-29
Bush margin 2004 30-69
Current opponents Melissa Haluszczak
Demographics   26th lowest income (median = $30K), 71st most Blacks (22.5%)
Assessment Safe.  Doyle has $300K COH, Haluszczak has little

District: PA-15
Location Central part of eastern PA, including Allentown and Bethlehem, bordering NJ  map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Charles Dent (R)
VoteView 255
First elected 2004
2008 margin 59-41 over Sam Bennett
2006 margin 54-43
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 50-50
Current opponents John Callahan
Demographics Not unusual on what I track  
Assessment Bennett (who I liked) had some local problems, Callahan has a good chance.  Callahan has about $365K COH, Dent about $300K.  A recent poll had Dent up 49-32, even a Democratic poll had Dent up, 45-43
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Likely R

District: PA-16
Location Southeastern PA, centering on Lancaster  map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Joe Pitts (R)
VoteView 405
First elected 1996
2008 margin 56-39 over Bruce Slater
2006 margin 57-40
2004 margin 64-34
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Lois Herr
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Might be vulnerable.  Pitts has $280K COH, Herr about $100K
My rating: Likely R

District: PA-17
Location South and east of central PA, including Harrisburg  map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Tim Holden (D)
VoteView 192.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 64-36 over Toni Gillhooley
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents David Argall
Demographics Not unusual on what I track  
Assessment Holden has won easily, even in this
Republican district.  Should be safe.  Holden has about $160K COH, Argall about $55K.  Even a recent Republican poll had Holden up by a lot.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe

District: PA-18
Location Suburbs of Pittsburgh  map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Tim Murphy (R)
VoteView 259
First elected 2002
2008 margin 64-36 over Steve O'Donnell
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents Daniel Connolly
Demographics  10th most Whites (95.4%), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)  
Assessment Safe for Republican.  Murphy has $700K COH, O'Donnell very little.

District: PA-19
Location Southern PA including Gettysburg  map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative Todd Platts (R)
VoteView 254
First elected 2000
2008 margin 67-33 over Phillip Avilo
2006 margin 91-4 against a Green
2004 margin 64-36
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents Ryan Sanders
Demographics   68th most Whites (92.2%)
Assessment Safe for Republican.  Platts has very little COH, but Sanders has less, and this is a very Republican district.

District: RI-01
Location Northern and eastern RI, bordering MA and CT  map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative Patrick Kennedy (D) Retiring
VoteView 89
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 65-33
Bush margin 2004 36-62
Current opponents David Cicciline (D) John Loughlin (R)
Demographics   Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe for whichever Democrat wins; it's an overwhelmingly D district.  Cicciline has $200K COH,  Loughlin about $100. A recent Republican poll had it tied. A slightly earlier poll had Cicciline up 47-36
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Likely D

District: RI-02
Location Most of the state map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Jim Langevin (D)
VoteView 146
First elected 2000
2008 margin 70-30 over Mark Zaccaria
2006 margin 73-27 against an independent
2004 margin 75-21
Obama margin 61-37
Bush margin 2004 41-57
Current opponents  Zaccaria again.
Demographics   Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Langevin has $400K COH, Zaccaria has little.  A poll had Langevin up 65-26

District: SC-01
Location Almost all of coastal SC, bordering NC and the Atlantic, including Charleston  map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Henry Brown (R) Retiring
VoteView  NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 42-56
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Democrat Ben Frasier, Republican Tim Scott
Demographics   17th most veterans (17.2%), 78th most Blacks (20.9%)
Assessment A very Republican district.  Scott has about $280K COH, Frasier has little.

District: SC-02
Location Southern SC, stretching north to the middle of the state, bordering GA and the Atlantic, including Columbia  map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Joe Wilson (R)
VoteView  404
First elected 2001
2008 margin 54-46 over Robert Miller
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 65-33
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Robert Miller is running again.
Demographics  70th most veterans (15.1%), 60th most Blacks (26.2%)
Assessment Might be possible, Miller wasn't that far back in 2008. But not likely.  Wilson has $600K COH, Miller has $200K. Even a recent Democratic poll had Wilson up by a lot
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Safe for R

District: SC-03
Location Northwestern SC, bordering GA  map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Gresham Barrett (R) retiring to run for governor
VoteView  NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 35-64
Bush margin 2004 66-34
Current opponents Republican Jeff Duncan, Democrat Jane Dyer
Demographics  49th most rural (49.7%), 80th most Blacks (20.5%), 36th most Republican
Assessment Pretty sure to be Republican.  Neither candidate has much COH

District: SC-04
Location  Northern SC, bordering NC  map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Bob Inglis (R) Lost primary
VoteView 402.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 60-37 over Paul Corden
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 70-29
Obama margin 38-60
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents Republican Dave Edwards, Democrat Paul Corden
Demographics  Not unusual on what I track.
Assessment Another very Republican district.  Both have little COH.

District: SC-05
Location  map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative John Spratt (D)
VoteView  198.5
First elected 1988
2008 margin 62-37 over Albert Spencer
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents Mick Mulvaney
Demographics   35h most rural (53.3%), 80th fewest Latinos (1.8%)
Assessment Spratt has $800 K COH, Mulvaney about $450K, but a lot from himself.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating:

District: SC-06
Location  Southeastern quarter of SC, bordering the Atlantic, excluding Charleston map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative James Clyburn (D)
VoteView 67
First elected 1992
2008 margin 68-32 over Nancy Harrelson
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 39-61
Current opponents Jim Pratt
Demographics  40th most rural (52.0%), 17th lowest income (median = $29K) 66th fewest Whites (40.3%), 14th most Blacks (56.7%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)
Assessment Safe. Clyburn has $1.2 million COH, Pratt has little

District: SD-AL
Location The whole state map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Stephanine Herseth Sandlin (D)
VoteView  215
First elected 2004
2008 margin 68-32 over Chris Lien
2006 margin 69-29
2004 margin 53-46
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 60-38
Current opponents Kristi Noem
Demographics  58th most rural (48.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%), 66th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 8.1% Native Americans).
Assessment Sandlin has about $200K COH, Noem has about $500K
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating:

Originally posted to plf515 on Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 02:45 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Congressional tips (15+ / 0-)

    The election is almost here, I hope to make it through to Wyoming before election day.

    We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

    by plf515 on Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 02:45:25 AM PDT

  •  I see I missed... (6+ / 0-)

    ...your Oregon edition yesterday.  Just went back and looked at it.  Yeah, Earl's safe here in OR-03 and the only question is whether he'll break 80% of not.

    ;)

    Just noted elsewhere yesterday, in fact, that Earl is running teevee ads here in Portland actually encouraging folks to vote for Democrats!  There's a man who isn't ashamed of his (our!) party.  Would that we had a couple hundred more of those.  I'm glad my Congressman is one of them.

    OR-05 would might maybe be competitive in such a year under any other circumstances, but against Scott Bruun?  No.  Oregon has already rejected him in all other forms, and my neighbors down there in that district will be rejecting him in this form soon as well.  Kurt Schrader (a rural conservative Democratic organic farmer) is pretty much a perfect fit for that district -- four of those six words describe almost everyone there already, and even folks I know down there who aren't 'Big-D' Democrats still like Kurt...

    Thanks for the look at these races this morning.

    "The greenest building is the one already built." - Carl Elefante

    by JayinPortland on Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 04:04:53 AM PDT

  •  good morning! (6+ / 0-)

    this is the first time I've seen one of these diaries... excellent work, plf515

    I'm worried about Patrick Murphy, PA-08.
    he's a great guy and if Bucks County doesn't re-elect him
    I'm not going up to New Hope anymore.

    New Hope is an amazing and charming little village in Bucks County.
    originally it was an artisan/hippy community.... now it's a lot of tourists
    but it's still great, plus there is a sizable lgbt community.

    I would think based on its progressive roots New Hope would go for Murphy
    however, Bucks County is a pretty large district with a conservative base.

    fingers, toes are crossed for Patrick Murphy.

    "Toleration is the greatest gift of the mind; it requires the same effort of the brain that it takes to balance oneself on a bicycle." -Helen Keller

    by ridemybike on Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 04:29:07 AM PDT

    •  New Hope... (5+ / 0-)

      ...is one of my favorite places in the world.  Along with Lambertville, of course.  

      A stroll around historic Lambertville, NJ; a River Horse brew or two in the basement pub at Lambertville Station (just wish their food was better!), then a walk across the bridge and shopping (Farley's Bookshop!) and a late dinner in New Hope...

      A great day.

      :)

      Good morning, ridemybike.  I hope your bike riding is less slick around your way than ours will be here in beautiful Portland, Oregon today!

      "The greenest building is the one already built." - Carl Elefante

      by JayinPortland on Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 04:47:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  hi Jay (4+ / 0-)

        so far only clouds.... but philly could likely end up being like portland today.

        rain is the call.

        oh... yea, actually lambertville is nicer these days.... less tourists.
        one of the many rides i do every year is from new hope to new york.
        amazing amazing ride, my favorite of the year.

        hope all is well in beautiful oregon, my friend :)

        "Toleration is the greatest gift of the mind; it requires the same effort of the brain that it takes to balance oneself on a bicycle." -Helen Keller

        by ridemybike on Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 07:35:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  my brother's in Upper Bucks (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      eeff, Larsstephens

      Kintnersville, near the junction of 611 and 412.  If I'm not mistaken, his property has a smidgen of frontage on Lake Nockamixon.  His business has the same name as my blog, though of course he uses .com instead of .org.

      Depending on where his sons are registered to vote, that's somewhere between two and four votes for Patrick Murphy.

      grok the "edku" -- edscan's "revelation", 21 January 2009

      by N in Seattle on Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 09:16:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  SC-05 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Larsstephens

    I hear the NRA commercial a couple times a day for the GOP candidate.
    I looked that district up

    John Sprat is our guy

    Mick Mulvaney convinced Lancaster County to approve $30 million in bonds to improve this property. Then Mulvaney flipped this property for a $7 million profit to another developer who had defaulted on a $78 million loan. Mulvaney said he would stay involved, but the work stopped, the bonds are in default, the development unsafe, and runoff is polluting Twelve Mile Creek.

    I found that on John's site along with a few more

    http://www.johnsprattforcongress.com/

    I'm just an ant in the army of the Amateur Left

    by eeff on Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 02:49:09 PM PDT

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