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Since no one else has the intestinal or testicular fortitude to make this call I'm going to do it myself.  I predict Senator Russ Feingold to win his bid for reelection.  Almost every pundit and prognosticator out there except for The Great Sage and Eminent Guru of Madison, Wisconsin Ben Masel appears to accept the conventional wisdom that Ron Johnson has all but won this election.

You might ask how I can make such a bold assertion considering PPP and Nate Silver are predicting he loses?  Simple There's something wrong with the polling!  The way I look at it is that if PPP a left-leaning poll and Rasmussen a right leaning poll agree, then something's amiss.  During the 1998 midterms all the polling was off by 5% and I think that's what we're seeing now.

These two recent polls have the race in a statistical dead heat:

We the People Wisconsin 10/28

St. Norbert College 10/18

What none of these polls can possibly take into acount is that in Wisconsin voters can register at the polls on election day.  Ben Masel argues that this year looks a lot like 1998 and those voters turned the tide for Senator Feingold then.  I agree with him.  Senator Feingold (as Jud Lounsbury points out) is The ONLY Statewide Candidate to Receive Endorsements from ALL of WI's Largest Papers! and just this week received the endorsement of prominent Libertarian Bob Barr.


P.S. We "might" get one more local poll (that might shed more light on the race) on Monday, but I'm not so sure about that.

Originally posted to PvtJarHead on Sun Oct 31, 2010 at 11:17 AM PDT.


Is Senator Feingold going to WIN?

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