If you believe Pew, then Democrats will be outdrawn by Republicans and Independants!
Ok I have just spent several hours crunching numbers trying to figure out why Pew thinks that the likely voter electorate on Tuesday will look like this:
Republicans 33.6 %
Democrats 31.8%
Independents 34.4 %
Thats right, according to Pew, Independents will be the biggest demographic voting this year.
Hmmmm....Really?
Past History:(according to exit polls)
Percent of Independent vote:
1996 26%
2000 27%
2002 (no exit polls)
2004 26%
2006 26%
2008 29%
Average 26.8%
Meanwhile, the average percentage for Republicans over the 6 elections has been 35%. The average for Democrats has been 38.4.
Clearly, this poll has oversampled for Independents and undersampled for Democrats. The Republican numbers have also been pretty on target at 34%.
ABC/WP has the following breakdown:
34 Dems
31 Rep
30 Independent
A little closer but still seems over sampled for Independents.
Early voting numbers (where brokedown by party) show Independents make up about 15.8% of the total of early voters. Dems and Republicans are tied at 42% each of those voting early. So I think there will be some suprises this election. Get out there and vote kids!