Yes, there are flaws with the polls.
Yes, the media decided about a year ago that this election was going to be a Republican Resurgance® and has done a lot to make that a self-fulfilling prophecy. But that doesn't mean the results will be different.
Yes, a number of crazy people are running on the other side. But many of them are going to win and the level of denial around here is scary.
There are a few things strange about the polling. It doesn't seem that they count people with cell phones correctly. It seems like they have decided that Republicans are way much more likely to turn out versus Democrats in a long time, and the generic ballot numbers are extraordinary.
I get it. There are some flaws in the data. But when there are flaws in the data, you have to have something else to justify your theory, otherwise we just get into discussions of how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. It sounds like the kind of global warming denial (or general science denial) that the other side engages in.
But, who knows? Maybe you'll be right. Maybe the Dems will hold both Houses. But you won't have "known" that. You will simply believed it as a matter of faith. Right now, the best pollsters believe that the Republicans will take the House, and the Dems will lose quite a few Senate seats even while retaining the chamber.
I suppose there are some tacticians out there that believe that in order to rally the troops and do the best we can we have to tell people we're going to win, or else people won't get out the vote. A better strategy—you know, besides delusion—might be to find local races of interest to each person. At least in California, that's easy to do. We have a close race in the Senate and for Attorney General.
But I am a very proud member of the Reality-Based Community. I don't think deleting polls from the front page or pointing out methodological errors on every poll (because we're all suddenly Ph.D.s in statistics...) is the same as positive evidence that this isn't going to turn out a certain way.
And then what? Then, the people that were deluded will be even more demoralized. How about under promising and over delivering for a change? That gives people something to fight for.
Just remember: the other side cares more about the White House than Congress. They believe it belongs to them. They try to delegitimize every Democratic president and they will continue to do so. Personally, I believe the Tea Party is a huge feint in order to make us happy when a "reasonable" Republican (a compassionate conservative, whatever) shows up to run in 2012. Or, maybe their master plan is just to suicide bomb the government, I don't know.
But it's time to start thinking about what we're going to do next? Are we going to lie to ourselves for 36 hours?
UPDATE: I bolded the part where I make it clear I believe motivating people is fine.