I ran across an old website yesterday. At 10 years old, it is ancient, at least in internet terms. I’m surprised it still exists, actually: It’s so old, in fact, that it looks to have been optimized for 800x600 screen resolution. The page is from President Clinton’s White House website, and it contains a plan--an alternate future, really--of what might have been, had George W. Bush not been handed the presidency by the SCOTUS in 2000.
Have a look if you want, then join me after the fold:
http://clinton4.nara.gov/...
The headline from that website reads:
December 28, 2000
Today, President Clinton will announce that The United States is on course to eliminate its public debt within the next decade.
That sick feeling you have in the pit of your stomach right now is George W. Bush's gift to you, to me, and to every other American. Arguably it is his greatest legacy as President. Remember that when you see him on Good Morning America hawking "Decision Points". Imagine where we would be today had Bush not "decided" to change course, and abandon President Clinton's policy of fiscal responsibility.
Look at this chart, which comes from the US Federal Budget from 2001:
That chart shows what could have been our financial picture for the last ten years. Taking it at face value for a moment, consider this: how much better off would we have been in 2008 when the financial crisis hit, if the national debt had been perhaps as little as 3.6 trillion, instead of the more than 9 trillion that we did end up having? How's that for a "decision point"?
Some--and probably most Republicans--might say in response that "the world changed on 9/11" and that consequently Clinton's plan is completely unrealistic and would have never come to pass. I say that is complete bunk. Yes, 9/11 did change things, and yes we did have a recession in its aftermath (whether caused or exacerbated by the attacks) that would undoubtedly have affected the debt reduction plan. Under a President Gore, I don't doubt we would have had a similar national response to 9/11 in the form of military action in Afghanistan.
Nevertheless, let's assume that the cost of the Afghanistan War, over 350 billion to date, would have been incurred regardless; that is, if, in our alternate future, taxes also had not been raised to fight the war. We all know that Bush did not raise taxes to fight the war, a first in the history of this nation. So let's assume that historical first went to Gore, and add a hypothetical trillion to the total national debt in 2008. A 4.6 trillion national debt is a far better place to be than is 9 trillion plus, in the face of a major financial crisis. It would have given us vastly more financial room to maneuver as a nation.
I think I can also say with confidence that under a President Gore, we would not have gone into an absolutely unnecessary war in Iraq, which to date has directly cost us close to 750 billion, nor would we likely have seen an expansion of our intelligence and security apparatus to a size and scope so large that, as the Washington Post reported in July of this year:
The top-secret world the government created in response to the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, has become so large, so unwieldy and so secretive that no one knows how much money it costs, how many people it employs, how many programs exist within it or exactly how many agencies do the same work.
Unfortunately, this isn't "Dallas", and we aren't going to wake up to see Bobby in the shower. Even before 9/11/2001, President Bush had already placed us, as a nation, firmly on the path to financial ruin. The first of his tax cuts were passed in June of that year. Today, we are left with the harsh financial reality that is the Bush legacy. Here's the CBO's projection chart now:
Now I'm no economist, but I can read from that chart that by 2020, we are projected to add over 6 trillion to the national debt, we won't see anything remotely close to a balanced budget in the forseeable future, nevermind a surplus, bringing our total national debt somewhere north of 19.5 trillion in 2020. How's that pit in your stomach feeling now? Mine too.
Looking back once again at the Clinton White House website from 2000, I wonder: financially, as a nation, if we can ever get back to where we were at that time. It is exponentially more difficult now, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try. An important first step President Obama and his administration could (and should) take is: to draw a line in the sand, allow the expiration of all the Bush tax cuts, and then begin to make meaningful cuts in the federal budget, most importantly in defense spending. Even after taking those steps, as it stands now, it looks to be at least a decade before we can even begin to get close to where we were in 2000.
Letting all the tax cuts expire would be the financially responsible course of action. If the administration manages to enact its preferred plan and extends just the middle class tax cuts, that would hurt, but we might still at least start to move in the right direction financially as a nation. Obama's current plan would help somewhat in trimming deficits, although the national debt will continue to rise. If, however, as seems increasingly likely, the administration caves to Republican demands that all the tax cuts be extended, we will be looking at the 2020 projection chart above as a best-case scenario. That, my friends, is not a pretty picture.
Update: Wow, I come back from lunch and find this on the Rec list. Many thanks!