In 2012, Democrats will need 25 seats to regain control of the House. Since Republicans gained 63 in 2010, Democrats gained 22 in 2008 and 30 in 2006, so a swing of 25 seats shouldnt be too difficult.
Obviously, redistricting is going to cost Democrats a seat each in Pennsylvania, Massachussetts, Michigan, Ohio, and New York and probably two seats in North Carolina, where Republicans now control the redistricting process. These seats will likely reappear for Democrats in new districts in Washington, Nevada, Florida, South Carolina, and Texas as the Obama Justice Department will likely require creation of a new black majority district in South Carolina and two or three Hispanic majority districts in Texas under the Voting Rights Act.
Republicans will lose a seat in Louisiana, New York and five in Illinois, where Democrats control redistricting. One seat will reappear for them in Texas and another in Georgia, where they control the process.
Democrats will also likely add four new seats in Illinois where they control the redistricting process and one in Maryland, where they also control the process.
After redistricting, Democrats are already up about five seats. That leaves 20 to go. Where will we find them?
Lets start in New Hampshire, where Democrats lost two seats. Both of these seats can be won back, leaving us down just 18.
Next I would look at New York, where Democrats lost six seats. Mike McMahon lost his Staten Island based district by just two points to a very weak opponent. He can win his old seat back with a higher Dem turnout. Also, Democrats can win back NY-19 and NY-20, where Chris Gibson has a bit of a foot in mouth problem and recently said that the best way to fight global warming is to build a forth lane on Interstate-87. Another very easy take back should be NY-25, where Dan Maffei lost by just 500 votes to a wingnut Republican in a district that was carried by John Kerry and won by Obama with 57% of the vote. If Democrats can take these districts, they are now just 14 seats away.
Pennsylvania is a good place to start next, in PA-08 where very right wing Republican Mike Fitzpatrick beat Congressman and Iraq war veteran Patrick Murphy in a district that was carried by Kerry, Gore, and Obama. If Murphy runs again, he will probably win this seat back. Right next door is PA-07 where Joe Sestak left to run for Senate and Republican Pat Meehan took his seat. If Sestak can also be drafted to run for his old seat, he would be an almost sure winner. The final district is PA-11, where militant anti-immigrant candidate Lou Barletta won a district that went heavily for Gore, Obama, and Kerry. It looks like Pat Casey, brother of Senator Casey will run here. If these districts can be won, it will put us within 11 seats of winning back the House.
The next state I would look at is Ohio. Very right wing Republican Steve Chabot was able to beat Steve Driehaus in OH-01 due to very low black turnout in Cincinatti. If Driehaus runs again, he would likely win back his old seat in a Presidential year with high black turnout. There are two other districts we could win, both in the Columbus area, OH-12 and OH-15 where low black and youth turnout doomed two Democrats. If we can find good candidates in these seats, we can win them both. Just eight seats to go.
There is one seat we could pick up in Indiana. If Brad Ellsworth runs for his old seat in IN-08, he could well win it back. Now just seven seats to go.
I'd look at Virginia, where Tom Perriello lost a very close race to Robert Hurt in VA-05 because of low youth and black turnout. If he runs again, he can win back his old seat. I think we can also win back VA-02 with a good candidate. Five to go.
Ill look at Michigan now, where Tim Wahlberg barely beat Mark Schauer in MI-07. If Schauer runs again, he can win. We could also beat Thad McCotter in MI-11 and Dan Benishek in MI-01. Two to go!!
Ill go right down to Florida, where Allen West looks like the prototype of a one term Congressman in FL-22, a district that went for Obama, Kerry, and Gore. I think we can also win FL-08 with a beter candidate than Alan Grayson(sorry Alan).
There we wave it. We dont even need to cross the Mississippi River or touch the Deep South to win back the House!!
Here is another source of optimism for those who belive Obama will be reelected:
2008 Dem Presidential vote: 53%
2008 Dem House pop. vote: 53%
2004 Dem Presidential vote: 48%
2004 Dem House pop. vote: 48%
2000 Dem Presidential vote: 48%
2000 Demo House pop. vote: 48%
1996 Dem Presidential vote: 49%
1996 Dem House vote: 49%
The Dem share of the Presidential vote has tracked IDENTICALLY with the House popular vote since 1996.
If Obama wins reelection, Democrats probably take back the House.
Lets win back the House in 2012!!!