I am sorry to disappoint my fellow Kossacks, but I regret to inform you my crystal ball has gone on the fritz. I know people have come to think of me as some sort of authority on issues of all things "Don't Ask, Don't Tell." And I've tried my best to be worthy of your trust.
It seems myriad of mixed signals has interrupted the messages from on high, and I can't say what's next. I will try to say a few things we know, and what we can do to bring repeal home in these final hours.
Image courtesy of Satirewire.
Tuesday was rough. In addition to this fight taking it's toll and sidelining a hero of the movement, there was James Amos. The Marine commandant delivered an early Christmas present to Senator John McCain, that seemed more like a steaming pile of insubordinate bigotry to the rest of us.
Amos was quoted in Stars and Stripes as saying:
“I don’t want to lose any Marines to the distraction. I don’t want to have any Marines that I’m visiting at Bethesda [National Naval Medical Center, in Maryland] with no legs be the result of any type of distraction.”
Now, funny you should mention legless Marines. Because one legless Marine now has bone to pick with you, General Amos. His name is Sgt. Eric Alva. You may remember President Bush awarding him a Purple Heart, seems he was the first Marine injured in the Iraq conflict and he lost his leg as a result. Alva told The Advocate:
“He pretty much spit on me, my Purple Heart, and my 13 years of service. I would definitely ask Amos for a meeting to explain his comments, and I’d bring my Purple Heart with me.”
....
Alva, 39, called Amos's behavior insubordinate and reminiscent of the conduct of another four-star general: Stanley A. McChrystal, who resigned under pressure in June after Rolling Stone published remarks attributed to McChrystal and his aides critical of senior administration officials.
“I wish Obama would invite [Amos] to the White House and fire his ass on the spot,” Alva told The Advocate.
And it took mere moments for the right to seize the meme. Fox News was gleefully trumpeting General Amos' remarks. At 12:30 pm, Wednesday Servicemembers Legal Defense Network's Aubrey Sarvis was squaring off with Elaine Donnelly, and the remarks served as a frame. Donnelly is a front woman for the "Center for Military Preparedness," whose only credential to speak to the matter appears to be that she leads a Fundamentalist Christian shell group that serves as a hired gun for the mainstream media when they need someone to come on the TV machine and spew lies about gay people in the pursuit of "balance." Also she bears a spooky resemblance in appearance and manner to Mrs. Betty Bowers, America's Best Christian.
So, in Fox News' relentless pursuit of all things fair and balanced, they of course, challenged the combat credentials of Retired Army Veteran Sarvis, while leaving lifetime civilian Donnelly's patina of respectability untouched, even after Rep. Patrick Murphy handed her her own ass during House hearings on DADT. In a hat-tip to General Amos, they also flashed pictures of dead soldiers while asking Sarvis, "Do you want it repealed so soldiers can die?" It was a classy touch. Also, they ignored their own complicity in cheerleading the rush to invade Iraq based on meager questionable, intelligence, which has cost us well over 4,000 American lives. Oh yeah, that. But knowing which soldiers were gay would surely bring death.
But Wednesday took a turn upward. Countless Democratic Representatives spoke eloquently on the floor in favor of the bill. And then the nonsense from the GOP started.
During the debates, Rep. Duncan Hunter helpfully informed us, “The United States military is not the YMCA. It’s somethin’ special!” True enough. I would however point out to Rep. Hunter that while the military is definitely not the YMCA, a substantial number of them are indeed, In The Navy and will Go West when their tours of duty end.
Rep. Buck Mckeon of California suggested "now is not the time" and that we put this all off until the United States of America was not longer at war. I'm sure that little thing in Eurasia will be wrapping up soon. Oceania can't always be at war with Eurasia can it?
What I know
The most basic breakdown I can come up with is repeal of DADT can happen. In the broadest brush it will depend on two factors, and both of which must be true:
- Democrats playing the few remaining cards very, very smartly without making any errors,
not caving and not fumbling on the 5-yard line.
- Republicans not behaving like bigoted, obstructionist douchebags,
who vote in lockstep against all reason.
I'll give you a moment to take that in.
OK. Did the odds of those two confluence of events happening simultaneously sink in?
Yes. The math is foreboding. But politics isn't about math. It's about momentum. And all GOP nonsense, aside, the momentum is clearly barreling in the direction of repeal. Madame Speaker Pelosi showed us she can walk the talk, and delivered her "Army of Allies," a resounding endorsement of repeal out of the House with the vote ending up 250-175. This is a substantial improvement over the 234-194 vote taken in May, and may--may--be and indication that people who said "We need to wait for the report" have at least not scampered to another excuse. In fact, the number of GOP Representatives voting for repeal went from 5 in May to 15.
And all humor aside, let's remember nothing much has changed since the Washington Post called standalone a Hail Mary pass. Senate insiders told the Washington Blade on Tuesday, "It could happen, but there’s just a lot of minefields.”.
Let's also remember all the people who've got so much riding on this. An estimated 66,000 LGB troops many of whom will spend this holiday season paranoid about calling or writing their loved ones. Let's make this a joyous Holiday Season for them. Let's help Senator Harry Reid return Lt. Dan Choi's West Point ring by Christmas. Choi needs some cheering.
Call our allies, call our foes. The Senate switchboard is (202) 224-3121. Harry Reid's office is (202) 224-3542. Ask them when the floor vote will be. More info in jpmassar's action diary here.
Other key targets, per SLDN:
Susan Collins (R-ME); Olympia Snowe (R-ME); Richard Lugar (R-IN); Judd Gregg (R-NH); Scott Brown (R-MA); George Voinovich (R-OH); Kit Bond (R-MO); Lisa Murkowski (R-AK); Mark Kirk (R-IL); and the sole unpersuaded Democrat: Joe Manchin (D-WV)
Remember, "supporting" repeal, as Brown and Snowe have said is no guarantee they will vote for to proceed toward it. Both were among the Senators that stopped it at the last vote.
• Sara R's DKos Community Quilt for Lt. Dan Choi.