According to CNN: Hezbollah, allies quit Lebanon's unity government over the U.N. backed probe on the killing of Rafic Haariri.
From evidence presented the Canadian Broadcasting Corportation (CBC) and a U.N. Special investigation probe seems to point directly at Hizbollah. Of course, as in everything else, Hizbollah blames Israel. But, has threatened to bring down the Lebanese government if Lebanon cooperated with U.N. Investigation in any case.
This morning... Israel's Haaretz reports that Hezbollah ministers quit over Hariri probe, toppling Lebanon government
Eleven Lebanese government ministers, 10 of them from Hezbollah and its allies, announced their resignation on Wednesday, calling on President Michel Suleiman to form a new government.
A United Nations-backed tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, the father of current Lebanese PM Saad Hariri, is widely expected to name members of the Hezbollah in upcoming indictments, which many fear could re-ignite hostilities between Lebanon's rival Shiite and Sunni Muslims.
A Hezbollah minister had told Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV that Hezbollah ministers were planning to resign Wednesday afternoon unless Saad Hariri agreed to their demand to convene an urgent Cabinet meeting over the tribunal crisis.
Well, Hizbollah made good on that promise today and their ministers resigned their posts and after Minister Sayid Hussein resigned his post the government fell.
The Assassination (from the Wiki link above):
On 14 February 2005 Hariri was killed, along with 21 others, when explosives equivalent of around 1,000 kg of TNT were detonated as his motorcade drove near the St. George Hotel in Beirut. Among the dead were several of Hariri's bodyguards and his friend and former Minister of the Economy Bassel Fleihan. Hariri was buried along with his bodyguards, who died in the bombing, in a location near Mohammad Al-Amin Mosque.
The latest progress report by Brammertz has indicated that DNA evidence collected from the crime scene suggests that the assassination might be the act of a young male suicide bomber.[8]
So according to the CBC link above:
Among other things, CBC News has learned that:
Evidence gathered by Lebanese police and, much later, the UN, points overwhelmingly to the fact that the assassins were from Hezbollah, the militant Party of God that is largely sponsored by Syria and Iran. CBC News has obtained cellphone and other telecommunications evidence that is at the core of the case.
UN investigators came to believe their inquiry was penetrated early by Hezbollah and that that the commission's lax security likely led to the murder of a young, dedicated Lebanese policeman who had largely cracked the case on his own and was co-operating with the international inquiry.
UN commission insiders also suspected Hariri's own chief of protocol at the time, a man who now heads Lebanon's intelligence service, of colluding with Hezbollah. But those suspicions, laid out in an extensive internal memo, were not pursued, basically for diplomatic reasons.
This conflict has embroiled the area for a while, but as the date of the U.N. findings have come clearer the rhetoric has ratched up. In July, for instance, Hezbollah vows to block arrests over Hariri killing
"Mistaken (are those) who think that we will allow the arrest or the detention of any of our fighters," he told supporters in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Hezbollah's stronghold.
"Any hand that will touch any of them will be cut off," he said to a cheering crowd.
Hezbollah and western diplomats say that the UN-backed tribunal investigating the killing of Hariri is expected to indict members of the group by end of the year. Tension has escalated in Lebanon over the tribunal in the past few months.
Analysts seem split over whether this could lead to violence or not. According to the New York Times
A leading opposition newspaper, Al Akhbar, underlined the sense of unease with an editorial headlined, "The beginning of the unknown."
Many here fear that "unknown" could turn bloody with street clashes in which Hezbollah is likely to prevail. An outbreak of violence might enable it to effectively seize control of the government and force a new reality on the streets of Beirut, at least until a new agreement can be reached under the auspices of foreign powers, who have long played an outsized role in the country’s domestic affairs.
Other analysts dismiss the prospect of violence, given Hezbollah’s strength. A more likely scenario, they say, is months of political stalemate, not unlike Lebanon witnessed between 2006 and 2008, before another deal is reached.
Right now, the region is watching this carefully with regards to what could come next. Hizbollah is heavily armed and very well trained. It is also a strong ally of the Ahmadinejhad regime in Teheran. What happens now is anybody's guess.
UPDATE#1: Haaretz is reporting: Obama backs embattled Lebanon PM, after Hezbollah topples government
U.S. President Barack Obama expressed solidarity with Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri in talks on Wednesday amid the collapse of his coalition government in Beirut.
Obama and Hariri urged all parties to refrain from causing further instability, and the White House charged that Hezbollah's withdrawal from Lebanon's government showed its "own fear."
Obama also stressed the importance of a UN special tribunal "to help end the era of political assassinations with impunity in Lebanon."
UPDATE#2: Z'vi Bar'el at Haaretz has some interesting analysis of the situation here: Timing of Hezbollah's resignation from Lebanon government no coincidence. Check it out...