This week I think much of our attention should be on the amazing events in the Middle East. Simply put poverty and state-level corruption throughout the area have cause sufficient popular anger that it has boiled over in a widespread revolution that has taken EVERYONE by surprise. The fact that the desperation of one single very poor and supposedly insignificant individual triggered this revolution in several nations shows that each and every one of us can have an impact on world events if we are determined enough...though I hope generally through less drastic measures as the self-immolation that started this series of events.
The current situation is a very volatile and unpredictable one. On the one hand, any kind of democratic-inspired revolution against military dictatorship is potentially a great thing. But the consequences of those events, whether as a different kind of military dictatorship (e.g. the overthrow of brutal regimes by the even more brutal Khmer Rouge) or as a kind of extremist government (as after the Iranian revolution against the brutal regime of the Shah), are not always good. We all hope for something good and positive from these events in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and beyond. Every Muslim nation is eying events carefully. I have been seeing the reactions in places like Nigeria and Algeria as well as in the nations so directly affected. So much can happen, both good and bad, that I believe that one day we will look back at these events in much the same way we now look back at Gorbachev's refusal to support brutal repression of dissent by the East German dictators and the siege of the Russian parliament as key historical events that changed the world.
But how will it change the world.
In each nation the strongest elements are the military and the dictators they support (the bad guys that are being overthrown) and Islamicist radicals who want theocratic dictatorship (future bad guys in the mold of Iran and the Taliban). Sadly, for those of us who want REAL change, the true pro-democracy forces are weak and disorganized. However, for now those weak and disorganized, secular-leaning pro-democracy movements are in the forefront of what is happening. In any nation where those weak movements can find a strong leader whose dedication really is to democracy rather than personal gain, REAL change can and may well happen. In any other situation either the military will re-exert control with a new dictator (perhaps with a more smiling facade or perhaps with a more brutal facade) or the Islamicists will exert effective and brutal control. If the West doesn't offer a clearly appealing pro-democracy alternative to military dictatorship or Afghanistan/Somalia-like chaos, then the Islamicists will have the more popular and effective option no matter how horrible and brutal they are.
Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen, with other nations like Nigeria and Algeria close behind (and with Niger trying to do the same thing by ballot at this very moment), stand at a cross roads among pro-West but brutal military dictatorships, anti-West Taliban-like Islamicist radicals, and traditionally weak, less predictable, mostly secular and truly democratic movements. Let's hope that the last style wins out.
But I think EVERYONE, from the military forces in each nation seeing these revolutions to our government to the pro-democracy movements to the Islamicists, has to keep in mind the trigger for these events. The precipitating event was a tiny and seemingly uninteresting event where local law enforcement destroyed a poor man's illegal market cart. A combination of poverty and corruption led to an act of desperation that inspired a whole generation of Muslims in several nations to say enough is enough. Whoever wants to bring peace and stability to the Middle East has to recognize that the combination of poverty and corruption has to be dealt with.
Here is this week's newsletter:
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
Top American Rabbis Take on Fox News
America's Real Entitlement Society
Continued from last week: Better Banking and Better Credit Cards
More from my blogger connection in Nigeria: MY ARREST AGAIN IN UYO...for more background on Leo Igwe and his efforts against both Muslim and Christian extremists, go here and here.
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