The Guardian's Simon Tisdall has written a fascinating piece today piecing together what might be the Egyptian regime's current strategy with respect to the mass uprising. Interestingly, his overall analysis appears to correspond with moves happening elsewhere in Egypt as well as statements being issued by the US State Department and Israeli Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu.
Tisdall's essential argument is that the army's recent declaration that it will not use force against the protesters is part of a plan for the current regime "to appear open to talks and allow Hosni Mubarak to choose the manner of his exit." Tisdall believes that the army has all but taken control of Egypt, with Omar Suleiman as the effective leader.
The army's pledge to not fire on the protesters chimes with this assertion. It avoids escalation of the already fragile situation and may avoid all-out revolution and plays well in the West. But most importantly, from the new regime's point of view it buys time, which might help diminish the protests as security factors of lost income and neighbourhood security come into play.
But what then?
Mubarak may well publicly offer a timetable for fresh parliamentary and presidential elections "possibly this autumn, coinciding with the end of Mubarak's term, under some form of international or independent supervision". Mubarak can then hand over power to the winner of that election.
However, there might still many concerns even with such an apparent victory for the protest movement.
Just how honest and open new elections might be, once the pressure on the streets has abated, is questionable. Whether they would usher in a truly new era for Egypt is highly doubtful at this point. At this moment, there remains all to play for. But through history, the fate of revolutions is to be hijacked. Egyptians will hope they don't get fooled again.
A number of recent developments suggest that Tisdall may well be correct in his analysis. First, state-controlled TV has begun to report more sympathetically on the protest, according to al-Jazeera. Second, calls for just such an orderly transition or a cautious welcome for a transition with strings attached are being made by Hillary Clinton and Binyamin Netanyahu. Finally, al-Arabiya TV is just reporting that Hosni Mubarak will be making a statement shortly. Something tells me he will be announcing his intention to step down, in due course, naturally.
I just hope that if this is enough to quell the existing protests, we in the West don't use this opportunity to meddle once again in the internal affairs of another country. The consequences of trying to push forces we find unsavoury out of the running in elections would be an enormous level of acrimony towards us across the world. In contrast we should use these elections to attempt to practice what we preach, to be involved only to the extent of helping to secure transparent elections and to take this opportunity to burnish our tattered reputation. Here's hoping, anyway.