I started talking about wheat yield, wheat protein content, and the inevitable crisis we’d face in this area clear back in 2008.
I knew wheat stocks were the weakest link and I described how this would work in Wheat, Fertilizer, And Land in March of 2009.
The Famine Of 2011 back in August described my specific concerns for 2011, before we knew what was coming at Australia.
Two weeks ago The Iron Triangle Of Collapse revisited what was happening with wheat and described the foreign policy implications of high prices and unstable supplies.
So ... it's cool to know what's going to happen before everyone else does ... but it's also god damned scary, because there are no good solutions for these problems.
Farming has changed dramatically in the last century. The horse as a source of power, the cow as a source of fertilizer, and triennial mix of corn, alfalfa or soy, and letting the land lay fallow is gone. Today on the fertile lands of Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska the biennial dance of corn and soy is giving way to economic pressure from ethanol and advancing technology; unthinkable even five years ago, today "corn on corn" is the norm.
Things are changing in equally dramatic ways in the drylands of the Dakotas, but the trend runs opposite to that seen in the wetter, richer lands to the east. Skyrocketing ammonia prices and limited moisture are driving lands out of annual wheat production and into a biennial rotation of fallow and wheat production.
This sounds like something only an agronomist could love, but the reality of the matter is that lives are on the line eighteen months from now based on the decisions farmers are making today.
Wheat, Fertilizer, and Land 3/14/2009
Thanksgiving of 2008 I published The Famine Of 2009. I was right about starvation, only partially right about the causes and conditions, and two years premature.
I called my wheat farmer friend Bryan Lutter today to double check my thinking, and I'm really, really worried about what I see coming at us in 2011.
The Famine of 2011 8/10/2010
I very visibly suggested that we’d have a massive famine in 2009 thanks the under-fertilization of the wheat crop. This outcome is inevitable and I explored the roots of this in The Dead Gods Of Atacama.
The recent fall of the government in Tunisia was driven in part by food prices. This is now spreading to Algeria and will likely reach Egypt, as well as Jordan. Instead of fossil fuel driven fertilizer supply issues, it looks like climate change is going to be the prime mover behind the troubles our species will face in 2011.
The iron triangle of collapse looks set to break into general public awareness.
The Iron Triangle Of Collapse 2011/1/17
Just caught this one on the massive U.S. winter storm. If this hits our domestic winter wheat production ... yikes. We're locking in a steady flow of Tunisia/Egypt like events for some time to come.
The storm is expected to wreak havoc on agricultural operations in the Plains states, threatening the dormant winter wheat crop, cattle herds and grain deliveries.