With the word this morning that Democratic Senator Jim Webb would not be seeking a second term, speculation immediately blossomed on two fronts: who would be the candidates eager to stand in for the freshman Democrat, and what (if any) were the implications for continued Democratic control of the Senate after 2012?
On the matter of who fills the Democratic bench, speculation immediately centered on former Governor (and current DNC head) Tim Kaine. Kaine, who turns 53 later this month, expressed confidence this morning that Democrats could hold the seat, but remained mum about whether he would seek the seat in his own right. Kaine downplayed his interest in the Senate as recently as last month, saying he enjoyed the work that he was doing with the DNC. Dave Catanese and Manu Raju of Politico reported earlier today that Kaine heads the list among party insiders.
Kaine would bring nearly universal name recognition to the table, as well as fundraising capabilities that almost certainly exceed that of any other potential suitors for the seat. But if his reluctance is legitimate, and not just an effort to be coy, there are other Democrats at the ready.
Virginia blogger Not Larry Sabato tweeted earlier in the day that former Congressman Glenn Nye was already making phone calls gauging interest in a bid. Other names being circulated include two former members of Congress (Tom Perriello and Rick Boucher) and one current member (Gerry Connolly). State legislator Chap Petersen is also getting mentioned a lot, along with former state finance head (and Lt. Gov nominee) Jody Wagner.
As to the second question (whether Webb's retirement does real damage to Democratic prospects for holding the Senate), the traditional press immediately categorized the decision as a "blow" for the Democrats. Republicans, such as former state chair Ed Gillespie, predictably echoed those sentiments.
The real picture, however, is far more ambiguous. Without question, Democrats will start a few steps behind the GOP (who already had two candidates in the mix to take on Webb), and a costly primary has the potential drain resources further.
However, the numbers seem to hint that Webb's retirement does not change two fundamental facts about the race. Our polling partners at PPP polled the state a couple of months ago, and found two interesting pieces of data. One: Webb's appeal to the electorate was mixed (his job approval was 43%, and the net was pretty much a wash). Two: the presumed GOP frontrunner (former Senator George Allen) is also a politician whose popularity is in question. Allen's favorability spread was 40/41, which indicates not only mixed emotions about the Republican, but a decidedly slim amount of upside.
And, that, of course, presumes that Allen will even be the GOP nominee. Allen has a legitimate teabagging threat as Jamie Radtke challenges him from the right. Radtke has already raised six figures in her bid to upset the establishment GOP pick.
Assuming that Democrats get first-tier talent to declare for the seat, and assuming that the party can coalesce around a candidate after either the primary or convention (Virginia uses both methods), there is no reason to write off this seat, as many did in the wake of Kent Conrad's retirement is significantly less hospitable North Dakota.