After a week of major protests and violent repression, in which hundreds have been killed, the Libyan regime appears to be coming apart at the seams.
Benghazi: Troops defect, cities liberated by the protesters
The major protest in Libya have been occurring in Benghazi, Libya’s second city (with about 600,000), which is far from Gaddafi’s power base in Tripoli and always restive. After a week of heavy protests, the regime appears to have completely lost control of the city. At some point in the last two days, army units appear to have mutinies and defected to the side of the protesters. It is not clear how many mutinied, but the protesters and army unit appear to have driven out the forces still loyal to the regime and Benghazi has been “liberated:”
“Right now, the only military presence in Benghazi is confined to the Command Centre Complex in the city. The rest of the city is liberated,” said another witness.
Other reports (e.g. “Protesters have seized control of Benghazi and several other eastern towns”) suggest that many of the towns in eastern Libya has been liberated, but I have not seen a good list (reports suggested theLibyan security forces withdrew from central Al-Bayda on Feb. 18].
Tripoli under siege
Meanwhile, Tripoli, Libya’s capital and the heart of Gaddafi’s power, is seeing sustained protests. The government has used harsh repression and live fire against the crowds, but several government buildings have been burned:
Anti-government protests raged Monday for the first time in the Libyan capital, Tripoli, with unconfirmed media reports of pro-regime snipers firing into crowds, bloody clashes on the city's main square and fires blazing in key government buildings.
Al Jazeera reported that a fire was burning inside the People's Hall, a symbol of longtime strongman Moammar Kadafi's repressive regime.
Many of the reports describe the scene as a siege, with protesters entering the capital from local towns and security forces trying to defend the key locations:
Security forces loyal to Mr. Qaddafi defended a handful of strategic locations, including the state television headquarters and the presidential palace, witnesses reported from Tripoli. Fires from the previous night’s rioting burned at many intersections, most stores were shuttered, and long lines were forming for a chance to buy bread or gas.
The tribes start to abandon Gaddafi
Juan Cole is reporting that the major Wafala tribe has announced it is joining the opposition, as is the southern Tuareg tribe:
In a highly significant development, the leadership of the large and powerful Wafala tribe announced that it was now siding with the opposition against Qaddafi. About a million Libyans belong to this extended kinship group. Since cultivating tribal loyalties was one of the ways Qaddafi had remained in power, this major tribal defection underlines his loss of authority. It was further underlined when Arab Warfala leaders managed to convince their Berber counterparts in the southern Tuareg tribe, who are 500,000 strong, to join in opposing Qaddafi.
This is a major blow to the regime, both because of the massive numbers in tribes and because the tribes are arguably second only to the security force in the regime’s network of control.
Defections
Government and military officials have begun to abandon the regime:
According to Juan Cole, Lt. Gen. Sulaiman Mahmoud went over to the protesters in Benghazi (presumably part of the mutiny which helped drive regime forces out of Benghazi).
The Libyan Minister of Justice, Mustafa Mohamed Abud Al Jeleil, has resigned in protest of the massive crackdown on the protesters.
Libya’s representative to the Arab League, Abdel Moneim al-Huny, along with the ambassadors to India and China, have resigned. members of Libya's UN delegation are also reported to have resigned, including deputy ambassador Ibrahim Dabbashi, who accused the Libyan government of committing "genocide."
Two Libyan air force colonels have apparently defected, taking their Mirage F1 jets to Malta and seeking asylum:
Two Libyan air force jets have arrived in Malta and military officials say their pilots have asked for political asylum amid a bloody crackdown on anti-government protesters in Libya.
…
A military source familiar with the situation said the jet pilots, Libyan air force colonels, were allowed to land after they communicated from the air that they wanted asylum.
This report is particularly significant in light of the report that Libya has been bombing the protesters.
Oil companies evacuate
Oil companies have begun evacuating their employees from Libya. 90% of Libya’s oil exports come from eastern Libya, where government control appears to have nearly evaporated. Without the income from oil, the government will have no economic foundation to continue.
Conclusion
The week of sustained protests, in the face of awful regime violence, has had a massive effect on what was once considered an unshakable police state. The regime is quite literally coming apart.
ADDED: A little analysis. Note where the Libyan defections are taking place: those diplomats overseas (who can't be shot); those army units in the east away from Tripoli; tribes in the south like the Tuareg; fighter pilots if they can safely slip away without being caught. This tells us that Gaddafi can no longer trust anyone outside of bullet range. He rules solely now by force of the gun, and anyone not directly under the gun is revolting. Gaddifi still has a lot of firepower, and so he can hold on for some time, but what is his endgame? The only tool he has left, massive violence is not stopping the protests, but is driving out the oil companies (along with any other foreign worker or tourist). The force that preserves his regime blocks any income to the regime. In short, it's non-sustainable. Even given Gaddafi's apparent willingness to use unlimited miltary firepower against "his people," the regime has no long-term strategy for survival.