Reposted from The Highchair Analyst
A couple of things struck me about Obama's speech on Libya, but without repeating some of the great points highlighted by Andrew Sullivan on Libyan intervention, I thought I might add some comments on one particularly troubling section. Giving Gaddafi a number of ultimatums, Obama states that,
The resolution that passed lays out very clear conditions that must be met. The United States, the United Kingdom, France and Arab states agree that a ceasefire must be implemented immediately. That means all attacks against civilians must stop. Gaddafi must stop his troops from advancing on Benghazi, pull them back from Ajdabiyah, Misurata and Az Zawiyah, and establish water, electricity and gas supplies to all areas. Humanitarian assistance must be allowed to reach the people of Libya.
Firstly, what is the time frame to all of this? It sounds like immediately, but does that mean this minute, this hour, today, within the next 48 or 72 hours? Even if everything being demanded were to be theoretically done this instant, is there really any way to confirm that he has? Forgetting about the degree of command and control that Gaddafi may or may not even have over his own forces, how is it that anyone will know he has complied within the time frame that is being demanded? I hope we are relying on intelligence other than Al-Jazeera and twitter, however great those sources have been. In an urban conflict without uniforms there is going to be a certain degree of uncertainty over who is on what side, even if we have the best imaging equipment in the world.
The next consideration I have is whether or not all of these demands are even possible at this point. Does stating that Gaddafi "must establish water, electricity and gas supplies to all areas" give interventionist forces an out to start air strikes by denying his acquiescence even if this very demand was now impossible due to the destruction caused by the previous bombings, shelling and fighting? I would hope not, but words and the way they are used are extremely important and Obama is no stranger to that fact.
I'm not entirely sure I see a way back at this point, I think that no matter what Gaddafi does, barring him leaving or killing himself, there will be some sort of international military intervention campaign. Let's hope, to use Obama's favorite word, that it is quick and causes the least amount of collateral damage possible.