As radical Republicans in the House have provoked an imminent government shutdown, the conventional wisdom is that it's a political mistake, because Bill Clinton easily won re-election after an earlier generation of radical House Republicans shut down the federal government for about a month in 1995.
But while Clinton won, his coattails were thin -- the Dems picked up just eight seats in the House, and lost two seats in the Senate.
And Gingrich remained Speaker, with a majority of 228 seats, which was radical enough to impeach Clinton two years later.
The Boehner/tea party Republicans start out with six more seats than Gingrich had in 1995-96, and their advocacy of severe cuts to federal spending remains generally popular, at least in red districts/states.
So, even if the radical House Republicans are blamed in the public mind for this government shutdown, it may not make much difference in next year's elections.
Details, below.
Scrolling down the wiki entry on the 1996 House elections, there were plenty of familiar names and interesting stories.
Let's have a look at GOP House Members elected in 1994 who lost in 1996. alphabetically by state.
In CA-22, Andrea Seastrand lost to Walter Capps, who died nine months into his term and was succeeded by his wife Lois, who won a special election and is still in Congress (now representing CA-23). Walter Capps died of a heart attack in Dulles Airport; Lois Capps spearheaded federal legislation mandating automated external defibrillators in many public places. A Washingtonian Magazine's 2006 poll of Congressional staffers named Capps the nicest member of Congress. The Santa Barbara-area district had been a GOP stronghold, but no more.
In IL-5, Michael Flanagan was landslided (64-36) by Rob Blagojevich, who eventually became governor, for a while.
In ME-1, Jim Longley lost by 11 to Tom Allen, who was re-elected five times, then challenged Sen. Susan Collins in 2008, a good Democratic year. Allen lost 61-38.
In MI-8, Dick Chrysler lost to Debbie Stabenow by almost 10 points. Stabenow rose to the Senate in 2000, beating incumbent Spencer Abraham by 1 point, and is considered probable to win re-election next year in a state that trended tea party last year.
In NJ-8, Bill Martini lost to Bill Pascrell by 3.5 points. Pascrell is still in the House, winning by about 2-1 in 2010.
In NY-4., Dan Frisa lost to Carolyn McCarthy 57-40. McCarthy, a former Republican, ran as a gun control advocate after her husband was killed and her son severely injured by a mad gunman on a Long Island Rail Road commuter train. She remains a principled, but alas lonely, voice in Congress for sane gun regulation.
In NC-2, David Funderburk lost to Bob Etheridge by 7 points. Etheridge lost his seat to a tea partier last year, but it was close enough for an official recount and was not decided until Nov. 19.
In NC-4, Fred Heineman lost 54-43 to David Price. Heineman had ousted Price, who had served four terms in Congress, in 1994. Price easily beat a tea partier, 56-45, last year.
In OH-6, Frank Cremeans lost to Ted Strickland by 2.5 points. Strickland went on to become governor, before losing, narrowly and tragically, to John Kasich last year.
In OR-5, Jim Bunn lost to Darlene Hooley by 5 points. Hooley served six terms before retiring. She was succeeded by Kurt Schrader, who won re-election last year against a tea partier by 51-46.
In TX-9, Steve Stockman lost to Nick Lampson by 5.5 points. Lampson served four terms, until convicted felon Tom DeLay redistricted him mid-decade and he lost to Ted Poe. Lampson gained some sweet revenge by coming back in 2006 and winning DeLay's open seat. He lost it in the next cycle.
In WA-9, Randy Tate lost to Adam Smith by 3 points. Smith is still in Congress, and is the ranking member of the Armed Services Committee.
Twelve 1994 GOP freshman were sent to the showers in 1996, but 57 won re-election, most handily, and some are very familiar names -- Matt Salmon, AZ-1; John Shadegg, AZ-4; J.D. Hayworth, AZ-6; Sonny Bono, CA-44; Brian Bilbray, CA-49; Joe Scarborough, FL-1; Dave Weldon, FL-15; Mark Foley, FL-16; Bob Barr, GA-7; Saxby Chambliss, GA-8; Charlie Norwood, GA-10; Helen Chenoweth, ID-1; Jerry Weller, IL-11; Ray LaHood, IL-18; David McIntosh, IN-2; Mark Souder, IN-4; John Hostettler, IN-8; Greg Ganske, IA-4; Tom Latham, IA-5; Todd Tiarht, KS-4; Ed Whitfield, KY-1; Ron Lewis, KY-2; Robert Ehrlich, MD-2; Gil Gutknechk, MN-1; Roger Wicker, MS-1; Jon Christensen, NE-2; John Ensign, NV-1; Charlie Bass, NH-2; Frank LoBiondo, NJ-2; Rodney Frelinghuysen, NJ-11; Michael Forbes, NY-1; Sue Kelly, NY-19; Walter Jones, NC-3; Richard Burr, NC-5; Sue Myrick, NC-9; Steve Chabot, OH-1; Bob Ney, OH-18; Steve LaTourette, OH-19; Steve Largent, OK-1; Tom Coburn, OK-2; J.C. Watts, OK-4; Frank Lucas, OK-6; Jon Fox, PA-13; Phil English, PA-21; Mark Sanford, SC-1; Lindsey Graham, SC-3; Zach Wamp, TN-3; Van Hilleary, TN-4; Mac Thornberry, TX-13; Tom Davis, VA-11; Rick White, WA-1; Jack Metcalf, WA-2; Linda Smith, WA-3; Doc Hastings, WA-4; George Nethercutt , WA-5; Mark Neumann, WI-1; and Barbara Cubin, WY-AL.
There are five current GOP Senators in there, plus a couple of former governors, an MSNBC host, Obama's Secretary of Transportation, at least one felon, and a score or so still in the House.
The Gingrich government shutdown may have helped Clinton a bit, but the recovering economy helped him much more.
But even with that, the Republicans did quite well in 1996 House and Senate races.
Re-electing Obama next year is vital, but almost as important is retaining the Senate majority and reducing, if not eliminating, the radical Republican House majority.
Most here get that. I hope that the Obama campaign gets it too, and commits substantial resources to ensuring that there will be a lot more Democrats in the next Congress.
So that 2012 will not be like 1996.