Illinois redistricting will provide a great opportunity for Democrats to take back some House seats. Illinois is not only a large state, but it's one of the few states where Democrats will have total control over redistricting. Democrats will want to draw as many solid districts as possible without accidentally drawing districts that Republicans can win. At the same time, Democrats will probably face pressure from minority groups to retain three majority-black districts as well as a Hispanic district, or even two Hispanic districts. They will also want to protect all their incumbents, even (sadly) the odious Dan Lipinski. That's where this map comes in. It draws 13 solidly Democratic districts, three majority-black districts, two majority-Hispanic districts while protecting all Democratic incumbents. Also, it keeps Democratic incumbents in separate districts, ensuring no establishment conflicts in the primaries.
Thanks to roguemapper and Dave Bradlee for their hard work in enabling partisan data in DRA, and thanks to silver spring and jsramek for their inspirational Illinois maps (particularly their downstate districts).
First, we must ask the question, what constitutes a safely Democratic district in Illinois? Right now, after possibly the worst Democratic year since right after World War II, the most Democratic district held by a Republican is D+6. That district, IL-10, voted for Obama by a 61-38 margin. But Obama had the home-state advantage; obviously he did better in Illinois than a candidate from, say, New York or California would have done. Since PVI is formed by averaging the performance relative to the nation for both 2004 and 2008, we can't necessarily calculate PVI off the 2008 result. For example, if Obama had gotten 59% in IL-10 instead of 61%, IL-10 would be D+5, not D+6. So while Obama did get 53% of the vote nationwide, a 60% Obama district would not necessarily be D+7.
Given this, I have decided to use 63% Obama as my baseline in Chicagoland. Even Bob Dold!, the representative from IL-10, barely won in 2010, even though there was a Republican tidal wave, he faced a two-time loser, and his district is more Republican at the local level than the national level. If he had been in a 63% Obama district, or had run in a neutral year, or had been dealing with territory that votes D up and down the ballot, he would have lost. That's why he'd lose in any of the districts I drew.
Anyway, without further ado, allow me to present the map. (I warned you it was crazy.)
IL-01 Incumbent: Bobby Rush (D-Chicago)
Vote: Obama 79 McCain 21
Description: Here we go with the crazy. This district stretches all the way from the South Side, just east of Comiskey Field, all the way to rural downstate Illinois. It's designed that way to soak up Republican votes from conservative whites downstate rather than taking in more Democratic white voters in the suburbs. It's still dominated by South Side Chicago, though. It's 51% black and 39% white (51/41 among adults). With an African-American majority, Bobby Rush should be fine here both in the primary and the general.
IL-02 Incumbent: Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Chicago), Adam Kinzinger (R-Manteno)
Vote: Obama 78 McCain 21
Description: Another district that takes conservative whites downstate and drowns out their voices with black votes in South Side Chicago, reaching all the way up to Jackson Park. (Communities of interest, you say? Should've thought of that before you decided to vote Republican!) Just like Rush, Jesse "iPads are killing jobs" Jackson Jr. should be fine here; it's a 52% black, 34% white district (51/38 among adults). Although former Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson lives here, she probably wouldn't gain any traction in a primary with a majority African-American electorate. And Kinzinger's definitely not even going to think about running here.
IL-03 OPEN
Vote: Obama 72 McCain 26
Description: This new district is designed to increase Hispanic representation. It's 62% Hispanic and only 32% white (56/36 among adults). Admittedly, most Latinos in this district are Mexican, so there is the issue of lower citizenship/voting rates. Nevertheless, the chances that a Latino would get elected here are extremely high, and in the off chance that a non-Latino got elected, they would have to be responsive to Latino needs a la Steve Cohen in TN-09. Regardless of who wins the primary, this district is a lock to vote Democratic in the general.
IL-04 Incumbent: Luis Gutierrez (D-Chicago)
Vote: Obama 76 McCain 23
Description: Having had its southern half chopped off, this district now expands all the way out to Elgin, taking the shape of some kind of sea serpent. Its Hispanic percentage drops significantly, to 56% versus 33% whites (50/39 among adults). However, most Hispanics in this district are Puerto Rican and don't have to worry about gaining citizenship, so Luis Gutierrez (himself a Puerto Rican) should be fine. He still retains his base in Bucktown and Logan Square, and his district is still safely Democratic.
IL-05 Incumbent: OPEN
Vote: Obama 64 McCain 35
Description: Stretches from Wicker Park (aka Hipster Central) to DuPage. Safe D. Also, I saved everything up to this point and accidentally clicked out of the window when I was finished, and it's 2:40 AM, so forgive me if I become a bit terse :)
IL-06 Incumbent: Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs)
Vote: Obama 65 McCain 34
Description: It's a pain to protect Dan Lipinski because he's a douchebag and also because of where he lives. Especially while creating a new Hispanic district. That's why this district is so ugly. Any primary opponent he gets will have the tough task of uniting voters from Joliet and Aurora and overcoming his machine support (how else do you think he wins primary landslides in a D+11 district despite voting like he's in a R+11?)
IL-07 Incumbent: Danny Davis (D-Chicago), Judy Biggert (R-Hinsdale)
Vote: Obama 85 McCain 15
Description: 53% black, 27% white (51/30 among adults). Keeps Davis' West Side/Oak Park base. Safe for him and safe D, Biggert will want to retire or move to the 13th.
IL-08 Incumbent: Mike Quigley (D-Chicago)
Vote: Obama 64 McCain 35
Description: Safe for Quigley. Melissa Bean lives here but is too conservative to win a primary.
IL-09 Incumbent: Joe Walsh (R-Winnetka)
Vote: Obama 65 McCain 34
Description: Walsh actually lives in McHenry but I split that between the 10th and 12th and I don't know where in McHenry he lives, so I'm just using his candidate address. Either way he's fucked.
IL-10 Incumbent: Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston), Bob Dold (R-Kenilworth)
Vote: Obama 64 McCain 35
Description: A district with two, possibly three incumbents drawn together. What fun! But it'll only be fun for Schakowsky, because it's Safe D. Speaking of which, that exclamation mark after Bob Dold!'s name will become even better after he changes from Congressman Bob Dold! to former Congressman Bob Dold! Bob Dold, Bob Dold. Bob Dold? Bob Dold!
IL-11 Incumbent: Donald Manzullo (R-Egan), Bobby Schilling (R-Colona)
Vote: Obama 47 McCain 51
Description: The first Republican district, it's about R+7 or 8, so off-limits to us in all but the best of environments. Either way, assuming they don't move, it'll be fun to watch the cat fud fly between Manzullo and Schilling.
IL-12 OPEN
Vote: Obama 62 McCain 36
Description: This disgusting monstrosity snakes throughout the state from McHenry through Rockford down to the Quad Cities, grabbing every last Democratic vote it can get its unholy hands on, even using touch-point contiguity in one place. The only question is, would Reagan be more horrified that his birthplace of Tampico's district is Democratic, or that it resembles some sort of nightmarish Japanese tentacle monster?
IL-13 OPEN
Vote: Obama 51 McCain 48
Description: The second Republican district. Voted for Obama but is actually about R+4 or 5. It's a good idea for Biggert to move here if she's not retiring. If this seat comes open, we should target it.
IL-14 Incumbent: Peter Roskam (R-Wheaton), Randy Hultgren (R-Winfield)
Vote: Obama 52 McCain 46
Description: The third Republican district. Roughly R+4 so possibly worth targeting, especially if Roskam and Hultgren have a bloody primary. Bill Foster lives here so he could provide us with a good recruit.
IL-15 Incumbent: Timothy Johnson (R-Urbana)
Vote: Obama 60 McCain 38
Description: The other Democratic downstate spider district. Johnson is too conservative for this district and would be smart to run elsewhere.
IL-16 Incumbent: Aaron Schock (R-Peoria)
Vote: Obama 44 McCain 54
Description: About R+10 so we shouldn't even bother. Schock is safe unless Shimkus/Schilling (what's with downstate Rs and sh/sch names?) move here. Phil Hare lives here but this district is too Republican and 2010 taught us that he's a lousy campaigner anyway.
IL-17 Incumbent: Jerry Costello (D-Belleville), John Shimkus (R-Collinsville)
Vote: Obama 57 McCain 42
Description: Jerry Costello didn't struggle in 2010, skipping to a 60-36 victory over a crazy Some Dudette when many in similar positions were losing (see Bean, Melissa). He has another Congressman in his district now, but it's gone from D+3 to about D+6 or 7. Shimkus is moderate on some issues, like LGBT bullying, but likely too conservative to win a district based in Carbondale/St. Louis suburbs.
IL-18 OPEN
Vote: Obama 42 McCain 57
Description: We made it! It's the most Republican district, about R+13. No Democrat has a chance here. It would be represented either by Johnson or Shimkus.
And there you have it! I worked all day on the map, and several hours on the writeup as well (especially since I was an idiot and accidentally erased half of it), so I'd really appreciate everyone's comments :)