PPP: Virginia's flag may not be all that will be blue in '12
Earlier in the week, the crew over at the Washington Post released a poll out of Virginia showing that the post-OBL bounce had turned a slight edge for President Obama in the key state of Virginia into a much more comfortable edge.
Now, the ever-busy team at PPP heads into the Commonwealth, as well. Their results, along with the WaPo numbers, paint a picture of a state that is light-blue, at a minimum:
Public Policy Polling (PDF). (5/5-8. Virginia Voters. February results in parentheses)
Barack Obama (D) 51 (--)
Robert McDonnell (R) 43 (--)
Barack Obama (D) 52 (51)
Mike Huckabee (R) 43 (43)
Barack Obama (D) 51 (48)
Mitt Romney (R) 40 (42)
Barack Obama (D) 55 (54)
Sarah Palin (R) 40 (35)
Barack Obama (D) 54 (51)
Newt Gingrich (R) 37 (39)
Barack Obama (D) 54 (--)
Donald Trump (R) 32 (--)
McDonnell is not considered a candidate for 2012. While he is popular in the state (sporting a 50/35 job approval spread), most voters seem content for him to remain in the statehouse. The other established candidates trail notably, with Huckabee coming the closest, and Trump circling the drain.
Unlike many other PPP polls of recent vintage, this is less a matter of Obama being more palatable than an unloved GOP field and more a matter of him being reasonably popular with the Virginia electorate. His approval ratings in the state sit at 51/44, which is a marked improvement over his numbers three months ago (when he was at a middling 48/45). That could be the OBL rally effect at work, but it could also reflect the fact that the changing demographics of Virginia (as is the case in North Carolina) is creating a state that will lean Dem for the foreseeable future.
A big key for Obama here is that he is keeping his 2008 coalition intact. Of the voters that supported him in 2008, no less than 91% of them are sticking around for 2012. Meanwhile, he is drawing at least a couple of McCain supporters--anywhere between 7-12% of McCain supporters are currently indicating that they will flip to Obama in 2012.
Obama's numbers with the base in Virginia are the best we've seen in any state yet. Those describing themselves as "very liberal" are nearly universal (98%) in their support for Obama. The liberal love isn't costing him with moderates, though: he has a 74/18 spread with them, as well.
The bottom line is that this is the second poll to confirm that Virginia's 13 electoral votes are not going to be a gimme to revert to the GOP, the party that scored those votes without fail from 1968-2004. Indeed, the Republicans are almost certainly the underdogs here. Obama's challenge is to shore up those other states in the 2008 coalition that appear to be wavering more.
There is still a lot of concerns on the map for team Obama, but they have to be comforted by the fact that Virginia looks awfully good, after a disastrous 2009 and 2010 there for the Democrats.
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