Pundits predict the GOP will pick up Senate seats in 2012, maybe even enough to give them control. Not so fast...the Dems have some significant strengths.
With the announcement by Senator Herb Kohl of Wisconsin that he will not seek reelection in 2012, pundits have now predicted that the Republicans have a significant opportunity to take control of the Senate, as they did the House in 2010. That speculation primarily revolves around the number of seats that will be in play in the 2012 election; there are 23 Democratic seats that will be open compared to only 10 for the GOP. As Texas Senator John Cronyn (Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee) stated: “I do think people are focusing on the Senate and how that can be the place where we can pick up the most yardage in 2012.”
Maybe, but to paraphrase Mark Twain on the Democrats’ chances: “The reports of my death are an exaggeration”. The Dems have many assets coming into 2012 that will give them impetus and strength. Some are based on Republican mistakes the past two years; and some are based on Democratic successes.
The Republican’s greatest goof clearly involved the presentation of the Ryan budget plan, and their total and partisan acceptance of it by the House vote in April, with every Democrat voting “no”. The plan was a PR disaster for the party, and once the blowback commenced; most Republicans could not run away from it fast enough. Never the less the vote is indelible, and most importantly, it gave the public a quick view into what a Republican agenda would look like if they ever gained control of both houses and possibly the presidency. And they did not like what they saw.
Moreover, conservatives ran (and won) the 2010 election almost exclusively on “jobs, jobs, jobs”, a theme that resonated with the public. But once in office, their focus shifted almost totally to dismantling social programs and deficit reduction. Some of their proposals (especially on the state level) regarding defunding social programs such, as Planned Parenthood, met with resistance. Additionally, the conservatives have spent considerable time and energy on such issues as gun control, clumsy immigration reform, abortion issues, voter ID, etc. This has not been embraced by the public.
And while the public can buy into deficit reduction, the draconian proposals offered by the Republicans did not gain favor. In fact, the recent Minnesota Star Tribune poll shows that the public strongly favors (63%) a combination of tax increases and cost cutting as a solution to debt and deficits. Instead the Republicans have taken new revenue “off the table”; and suggested a slash and burn policy when it comes to government spending – a policy that frightens Americans with programs they have learned to trust and relay on. Medicare, the VA, and Social Security high among them.
On the other hand, the Democrats have had some victories that can carry them forward in 2012. Most recently the killing of Osama Bin Laden has raised Obama’s stature significantly – and the race for the presidency can spill over into the Senatorial races as well. It is especially valuable in bringing out the vote for the Democrats. Conversely, the apparently weak candidates for president on the Republican side might have a tamping down effect for GOP turnout.
On the state level, the debacle in Wisconsin (with pending and highly possible Republican recalls), may be a metaphor for resistance to Republican actions in other states. The statistical argument that there are more Democratic seats vulnerable than the Republican ones may not prevail.
The wild cards in this scenario are twofold: money and communication. Both of these are heavily weighted to the Republicans. The travesty of Citizens United will mean that conservatives will have a huge edge in funding. And so too, on their effectiveness and expertise in communication. They have consistently done better at this than the Democrats, by staying on message, exploiting reach and frequency with their massive advertising funds, and aggressive messages. There is only one hope for the Democrats if they are to counter this – they will have to get smarter, and fast in the communication area. Further (although it is said all politics are local), I believe they will have to depend on the DNC as never before. The Democrats must have a national message to convince the public that a Republican victory will mean a radical, dangerous, and unacceptable new direction for our country. Meanwhile, in this environment, the Democrats now seem calmer, more rational, and reasonable.
With the issues now trending to their side, and a public skeptical of conservative intentions, the Senate race for 2012 may be closer than predicted. Or, if Mark Twain were here, he might have said: “The death of the Democrat Senate in 2012 is greatly exaggerated”.