Here's my take on where the fall municipal elections in Indianapolis are right now. Indianapolis is one of the more conservative cities for its size in the country, but is also trending Democratic in a pretty dramatic way. For example, while Bill Clinton never won Marion County, Barack Obama carried it by an almost 2-1 margin.
One of the main reasons why Indianapolis has historically been so Republican is due to what's called Unigov, a 1970s move to set the city bounderies more-or-less to those of Marion County. So, Indianapolis proper has the inner city, and a lot of suburban area -- landwise, it's one of the largest cities in the country.
A perfect storm of bad stuff in 2007 (which I'm not going to fully review here), involving crime, property taxes, and the perception that the administration was out of touch all smacked into Mayor Bart Peterson and the Democrats -- sweeping him and the Democratic majority on the City-County Council out of office in one of the biggest upsets in Indiana history.
But, I think we're probably favored to take both the mayor's office and the council back this November.
Greg Ballard, the Republican incumbent, is a ripe target He was somewhat of an accidental mayor. Now, I should say that I don't really hate him at all. I've met him on several occasions, and he's a very, very nice man who I think means well, but lacks the leadership skills and clear vision for the city's future to make him an effective mayor.
Our candidate is Melina Kennedy. She's an interesting person. The daughter of Greek immigrants, her husband was an Olympic distance runner, and they've owned a chain of running equipment stores. She's clerked for the Indiana Supreme Court, and served as Deputy Mayor under Bart Peterson. She was not really my first choice (she's a bit too insider and downtown/corporate for my tastes), but she's a fine candidate that the party has rallied around.
I think there are four main issues that are working in Kennedy's favor. Briefly, we'll call them the "Four P's": the police, parking meters, potholes, and partisanship.
One of Ballard's first moves was to engage in a power struggle with Sheriff Frank Anderson, to yank control of the police department away from the Sheriff's office. That's all fine and good, but IMPD is seen here as out of control, and unaccountable. While it may not be Ballard's fault, it's happened on his watch, and he has not looked good in the process. This is all symbolized with a case going on right now of an IMPD officer who was drunk at like 11am, and plowed into two motorists on I-465, killing one of them. The case is a sad, absolute mess.
(OK, all of you who live in cities where you pay like $15 per hour to park, just skip over this one, or you'll laugh at me!). Mayor Ballard recently privitized the parking meters in Indianapolis. The new meters (which at least take credit cards!) are more expensive, now run on Saturdays, and three hours later in the day. While parking is still cheap and easy here compared to most other big cities, it was a sudden and unpopular change, especially since it's taken place first in the most popular nightlife areas of the city -- downtown, Broad Ripple, and Massachusetts Ave. PEOPLE ARE PISSED!
Anyone who has driven in Indianapolis over the last year has probably paid to get their car realigned. While Ballard is supposedly spending millions and millions on fixing up the city for the Super Bowl, the roads are the worst I've ever seen in any city I've lived in, and again, this is the type of issue that has people furious!
Finally, partisanship. The city is changing, and the "default" is becoming more Democratic. It took a perfect story for Ballard to win 51-47 last time. He's not going to have that again. Yes, he's the incumbent, and that comes with advantages (including a lot, lot more money this time). But on balance, I think he's at best a slight underdog at this point.
If Melina Kennedy wins, I think we win the city council back as well. Briefly, Indy has a 29-member City County Council. There are 25 council districts, and 4 members elected at large. Right now, the Republicans control it 15-13, with one Republican-turned-Libertarian. Most of the districts are not competitive, clearly controlled by one party or another. That said, there are two or three of ours, and a couple of theirs, that could flip. The real battle is the four at-large seats. The Dems, Reps, and Libertarians each put up four candidates, and you get to vote for four. In the 2003 election, Democrats swept all four. In 2007, Republicans won 3 of the 4 (but it was pretty close), with only Democratic Council Leader Joanne Sanders surviving. If Melina Kennedy can win convincingly, I think she takes 4 Democrats with her -- including Zach Adamson, who would be (to my knowledge) the first openly gay candidate elected county-wide.