Historical analysis in today's NY Times about the relationship of unemployment rate to re-election. No president in last 75 years won re-election if the unemployment rate was higher than 8%. Ford, Carter and Bush Sr lost.
The unemployment rate when Mr. Obama took office was 7.8 percent — and he may not follow in his predecessors’ footsteps by leaving it in a better place than he found it. As of last month, private forecasters like Wells Fargo and The Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel were anticipating an unemployment rate close to 7.8 percent by late 2012. But those forecasts preceded a bevy of poor economic reports, which may lead some economists to lower their estimates.
Obama is on track to lose 2012 as unemployment is 9% and going up eighteen months before the election and GOP is on track to derail economy even more by forcing a government shutdown and default. Unlike Clinton in '96, Obama agrees with the GOP on the budget and cutting Social Security, Medicare and stimulus spending to reduce GOP created deficit and debt. So politically, Obama cannot blame the shutdown on GOP since Obama has endorsed the GOP's reason for government shutdown. Government shutdown, pushes the US into further recession (we never really recovered) and Obama is turned out of office.
Ironically, Obama is the one to blame for both the bad economic numbers and bad political situation, giving the GOP a gun to shoot the economy.
1. Obama's weak stimulus. He was told by Krugman and all the Nobel economists it was too small but Obama's arrogance and ignorance got to him and the stimulus petered out and economy is sinking.
2. Obama re-instated Bush tax cuts creating massive deficits and deficit which the GOP is no using as excuse to shut government down and drive unemployment higher to guarantee them a win in 2012.