Nancy Pelosi speaking to bloggers on Wednesday
Will Republicans really defy Wall Street and refuse to raise the debt ceiling unless Democrats agree to,
in the words of John Boehner, "trillions" in cuts to programs that reduce poverty among senior citizens? Or are Republicans just bluffing and putting up a good show for their tea party base before they fall in line and resume taking orders from their true masters on Wall Street?
Back on Wednesday during a blogger open house on Capitol Hill, I put this question to five House Democrats. The varied responses I received left a strong impression that no one really knows what House Republicans are going to do when the final notice for our nation's debts comes due over the summer.
Rep. Louise Slaughter (NY-28) didn't think that "bluff" was the right word, and said it was more akin to a "mind trick" or a "hoax." For Slaughter, what House Republicans are doing on the debt ceiling fight was like everything they had done so far in 2011: "a joke and Wall Street is in on the joke." She believed Republicans would ultimately vote to raise the debt ceiling, with or without the steep cuts they are currently demanding.
Rep. Silvestre Reyes (TX-16) took the opposite view. "I don't think they're bluffing," Reyes told me. "Much will depend on the freshman class."
Rep. Peter Welch (VT-AL) didn't think there was any question the debt ceiling will be raised. Instead, he thought the salient issue was whether it will be raised with or without a bond market shock. It could be "a repeat of the TARP model," Welch said, when the markets crashed after the House first defeated the Wall Street bailout in September of 2008. After the crash, the House went on to easily pass the bill with only cosmetic changes and verbal promises. Rep. Welch didn't think it was a good thing that Congress subserviently reacted to Wall Street in this manner, but he did think it was the reality of the situation.
Rep. Xavier Becerra (CA-31) said, "I think there was a time when this would have been a bluff," but now there are a lot of Republicans "willing to jump off a bridge." He added that the problem goes beyond the freshman class. "There are people who believe we should cut firefighters' salaries because George Bush went to war in Iraq," Bacerra quipped.
Rep. Elijah Cummings (MD-07) wasn't sure if it was a bluff or not because of the political calculations at play. Cummings said there are "right-wing freshman fearing right wing-primaries" if they stray off the tea party line. Cummings also thought there are some Republicans who believe the voters will reward them for staying true to what they said during the campaign, no matter the consequences. Finally, Cummings expressed concern that this fight will become another example of Republicans making extreme demands, Democrats responding with modest proposals, and the end result being a right-wing compromise. "We need to be careful that we don't play on GOP turf," Cummings warned.
If there was a consensus view among the Democrats at the meeting, it's that there is a sizable portion of the Republican House caucus that was absolutely not bluffing, and was willing to let the country go into default without steep cuts in Social Security and Medicare. If that is the case, then the only scenario under which a debt ceiling increase gets through the House without entitlement cuts would be one where the majority of votes come from Democrats. If that comes to pass, it's an open question whether John Boehner can remain Speaker of the House after the ensuing right-wing revolt.
So, what do you think—are most House Republicans bluffing on the debt ceiling or not? Take the poll.