For those who hold that President Barack Obama's foreign policy positions are not having an influence in the Middle Eastern arena, today's developments should serve to counter that notion (at least where the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is concerned).
According to the AP, top Palestinian officials – after secretly meeting with the Obama administration – appear to be having second thoughts about their push to unilaterally achieve statehood via the United Nations in September.
Whether or not Obama's position, and his influence, are positive developments for both Israel and Palestine is a matter of debate, a matter I will discuss below. But there is no question that Washington continues to be heavily influencing matters in the region.
Obama's hand is strong.
From the AP, care of The Washington Post:
Faced with opposition from the United States, a number of top Palestinian officials are quietly advising President Mahmoud Abbas to drop plans to seek recognition for a state of Palestine at the United Nations this fall...
...The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to the Associated Press Thursday, said Abbas would like to “climb down from the tree” and find a mutually acceptable formula for restarting negotiations, preferably based on ideas presented by President Barack Obama recently.
From a practical perspective, Abbas and the Palestinians are beginning to feel boxed in by a strategy – unilaterally declaring statehood via the U.N. in September – that is looking less attractive by the day. This is principally due to Obama's insistence that the United States will veto in the U.N. Security Council any attempt by the Palestinians to become a full member state.
While Abbas still seems committed to the strategy, he no longer appears to have confidence that it will produce positive outcomes, and sources indicate that the Palestinians have no Plan B. Abbas's top advisors, and some of the most prominent political figures in Palestine, are now wavering about the usefulness of the U.N. gambit principally due to Obama's refusal to support it. From The Jerusalem Post:
The Palestinian officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were discussing sensitive deliberations, say a number of top advisers are now having second thoughts about the U.N. strategy.
They said that among them are Yasser Abed Rabbo, the No. 2 official after Abbas in the Palestine Liberation Organization; Abbas’ chief negotiator, Saeb Erekat; and Nasser al-Qidwa, a former Palestinian envoy to the U.N. and top Abbas confidante.
There is a real danger here, a danger to which Obama may be unintentionally adding. Palestinian society, particularly the youthful protesters and the young generation, are no longer going to wait for statehood. With revolutions sweeping the entire region, and with Palestinians in both Gaza and the West Bank increasingly expressing their desires and hopes for a unified government and a self-determining state, there is no going back. This society is not going to wait much longer before bursting at the seams.
If Abbas (and the soon-to-be-established unity government) were to back out of the U.N. gambit, there would be an immediate revolt in Palestine, a revolt aimed at both Abbas (& the PA) as well as at Israel. Abbas already has a low credibility ratings amongst the Palestinian youth, and were he to bow to Washington's pressure yet again, I am almost certain that the territories would enter an unpredictable abyss.
And here is the Catch 22 for Abbas: if the Palestinians do proceed with a declaration of statehood at the U.N., and such a move only ends up being a symbolic gesture in the General Assembly that changes nothing on the ground, it is my view that the Palestinians will similarly lose patience and take matters into their own hands, whatever that may mean.
Which is why I am unsettled by Obama's policy, and by his influence. The only way for the Palestinians to get out of their self-made predicament (the U.N. strategy) is to engage in successful talks with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's government. Unfortunately for all parties involved, it is not a government that seems amenable to serious dialogue based on negotiations that have taken place in the past decade. (Netanyahu made clear in his speech before Congress that, according to him, Jerusalem can only be a unified capital of a Jewish Israel, a non-starter for the Palestinians).
Given this dynamic, my hope for Obama has been, since March, that he would wield his influence with Israel with the same level of force that he has done with the Palestinians, for in order to resolve the situation before September, both sides must be compelled by either carrots or sticks to return to the negotiating table in good faith.
Of course, my hope for Obama is, to be fair, one that is not exactly politically unsustainable for him, given the influence of the Israel lobby and conservative Christian interests.
Nevertheless, in order for Obama to not only have a high level of influence in what's transpiring, but to have a positive influence in producing a peaceful outcome, bold (perhaps politically-damaging) leadership is needed in the way he approaches Netanyahu and Israel.
For if he is going to demand that the Palestinians give up their U.N. gambit and return to the negotiating table (while also demanding that a unified government explicitly recognize Israel as a Jewish state), he must make demands of the Israelis, such as calling for the cessation of settlement building and a backing away from the hawkish rhetoric endorsed by Netanyahu before Congress.
Now, the Obama administration may be doing this. Israel met with the White House secretly this past weekend as well, and demands may have been made by Obama. Both sides have been mum about what was discussed (talking-points aside).
One can only hope – I'll revise – I can only hope that the Obama administration is somehow able to wield its influence such that both the Israelis and the Palestinians are able to enter into negotiations that both sides feel are being approached seriously, in good faith.
For the clock is ticking, and September may be the witching hour. It's an hour the Palestinians created. But it is an hour Obama is now responsible for helping the Palestinians and Israelis avoid.
For if nothing changes, and if the U.N. gambit is either jettisoned or attempted with poor results, both Israel and the Palestinian territories may suffer greatly.
Again.
AUTHOR'S NOTE: I would like to again offer the fantastic write up in Salon by Rashid Khalidi that takes a very different view on Obama's influence in the Middle East. It is a view with which I disagree, but his perspective remains immensely valuable as a counter to my own position.