Although Republicans control Ohio redistricting, I cannot help but play around with Ohio and produce a new 16-district map of my own. My goal was pure and simple: to keep Dennis Kucinich out of Washington state. The result? Very interesting mashups and combinations.
Given Ohio's tossup tendencies, these numbers in the delegation have the potential to swing back and forth dramatically depending on the cycle. Another thing that struck me is the distribution of incumbents: my map produced large sprawling districts in Central Ohio that turned out to house no incumbents at all.
On a very good year: 10-6, 11-5, or 12-4 D
On a normal good year: 9-7 D or 8-8 tie
On bad year: 9-7 R
On an exquisitely bad year: 10-6 or 11-5 R
SOUTHERN OHIO
1st District
Incumbent in Residence
Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati); elected in 2010
Changes
The district becomes more compact, being now almost entirely contained within Hamilton County. Taking in all of urban Cincinnati, this was the district that the 1st was meant to be. Steve Driehaus can mount a comeback under these new, more Dem-friendly lines, or perhaps 2010 state auditor candidate David A. Pepper.
Statistics
VAP: White (68.2%); Black (26.1%); Hispanic (2.3%); Asian (2%); Other (1.5%)
2008 Pres: Obama (55.2%) - McCain (43.8%)
Avg Votes: DEM (52.2%) - GOP (47.8%)
Probable Status
Leans D
2nd District
Incumbent in Residence
Jean Schmidt (R-Miami Township); elected in 2005
John Boehner (R-West Chester Township); elected in 1990
Changes
The first of many combinations occurs in the new 2nd. Under these new lines, the new 2nd keeps most of the current 2nd's territory. However, it also adds sections of the current 3rd and parts of the current 6th and 8th - including John Boehner's hometown in West Chester in Butler County. This is safe Republican territory, and Jean Schmidt should be able to hang on here, despite taking in new constituents from neighboring red districts, unless John Boehner mounts a primary challenge - although I think he will just opt for the less dramatic option of relocating to the new 8th.
Statistics
VAP: White (91%); Black (3.4%); Hispanic (1.9%); Asian (2.5%); Other (1.1%)
2008 Pres: Obama (35.2%) - McCain (63.4%)
Avg Votes: DEM (38.2%) - GOP (61.8%)
Probable Status
Safe R
7th District
Incumbent in Residence
none
Changes
Despite being one of the most expansive districts in this new map, this sprawling district which contains much of southcentral Ohio and taking in most of the current 3rd, 7th, and 18th, as well as parts of the 2nd and 6th, is actually home to no incumbents. Steve Austria, whose Beavercreek residence was drawn into the new 3rd can run here due to his family roots in nearby Xenia and the fact that the new 7th covers most of the territory that his current 7th does. Mike Turner, whose current 3rd forms the western portion of this district, can also run. Bob Gibbs, although drawn into the new 6th, can also run here, as the eastern end of the new 7th is formed with the southern part of his current 18th. Another interesting clown car primary maybe on tap in this district.
Statistics
VAP: White (94.6%); Black (2.8%); Hispanic (0.8%); Asian (0.5%); Other (1.2%)
2008 Pres: Obama (39.7%) - McCain (58.3%)
Avg Votes: DEM (45.8%) - GOP (54.2%)
Probable Status
Likely R
3rd District
Incumbent in Residence
Mike Turner (R-Dayton); elected in 2002
Steve Austria (R-Beavercreek); elected in 2008
Changes
The new 3rd is perhaps the most overtly gerrymandered district in this map. Incumbent Mike Turner keeps his base in Dayton, but everything else changes. Instead of lurching to the southeast to take in the heavily GOP Warren, Clinton, and Highland Counties, the district now creeps to the southwest, following the Dem-friendly corridor formed by the cities of Dayton, Middletown, and Hamilton. The new 3rd also takes in some more Dem-friendly areas of Greene County in the current 7th. I also inadvertently drew included Beavercreek, home to Steve Austria. Under these proposed lines, the 3rd goes from being likely Republican territory to a classic swing district, although I must give a slight advantage to Turner in the general election.
Statistics
VAP: White (77.5%); Black (16.7%); Hispanic (2.2%); Asian (1.9%); Other (1.7%)
2008 Pres: Obama (50.9%) - McCain (47.6%)
Avg Votes: DEM (50.3%) - GOP (49.7%)
Probable Status
Tossup
6th District
Incumbent in Residence
Bob Gibbs (R-Lakeville); elected in 2010
Changes
The new 6th essentially follows the shape of the current 6th, and keeps most of its counties. It also takes in the counties of the northern part of the current 18th. Ironically shaped like a question mark, the new 6th is definitely a swing county: although Republican at the presidential level, this blue collar district is ancestrally Democratic, and as such, cannot be counted as reliably Republican at the Congressional level (the current 6th supported native son Ted Strickland for governor in 2010). Although drawn into the new 16th, I foresee Bill Johnson moving into this district, thus setting up an entertaining freshman-on-freshman primary action between himself and Gibbs.
Statistics
VAP: White (95.1%); Black (2.3%); Hispanic (0.8%); Asian (0.6%); Other (1.2%)
2008 Pres: Obama (46.7%) - McCain (51.1%)
Avg Votes: DEM (58.3%) - GOP (41.7%)
Probable Status
Tossup
WESTERN OHIO
4th District
Incumbent in Residence
Pat Tiberi (R-Galena); elected in 2000
Changes
This new and solidly Republican western Ohio district combines most of the current of 4th, 5th, and 12th Districts. Pat Tiberi is the only incumbent residing in this new district, as Jim Jordan has been thrown into the new 8th, while Bob Latta is now in the new 9th. However, a bulk of Tiberi's current 12th has been drawn into the more Dem-friendly new 12th. If any of these three want to stay in Congress, ugly primary races are in order: Jim Jordan will have to run against John Boehner in the new 8th, while Bob Latta faces a race against Marcy Kaptur in the newly-shored up 9th, or all three will have to run against each other if they all decide to contest the 4th. Primary season here will be fun to watch.
Statistics
VAP: White (91.9%); Black (3.5%); Hispanic (2.4%); Asian (1.2%); Other (1%)
2008 Pres: Obama (39.6%) - McCain (58.6%)
Avg Votes: DEM (41.6%) - GOP (58.4%)
Probable Status
Safe R
8th District
Incumbent in Residence
Jim Jordan (R-Urbana); elected in 2006
Changes
A clash of the titans maybe on tap at the new 8th. The newly drawn 8th is now stretched to take in most of western Ohio and even has a small border with Kentucky. Although I inadvertently drew John Boehner out of this new district, I think he will just move into it anyway, given that it takes in most of the current 8th. One big problem might arise if Jim Jordan decides to stay put in his Champaign County home and decides to contest this new district, as it also includes a large swathe of the current 4th. However, Jordan also has the option of moving into the new 4th, although a primary battle with Bob Latta will be likely if he does.
Statistics
VAP: White (94.1%); Black (2.8%); Hispanic (1.2%); Asian (0.8%); Other (1.1%)
2008 Pres: Obama (35.9%) - McCain (62.3%)
Avg Votes: DEM (39.7%) - GOP (60.3%)
Probable Status
Safe R
COLUMBUS
12th District
Incumbent in Residence
Steve Stivers (R-Columbus); elected in 2010
Changes
Under these new lines, Steve Stivers of the current 15th may suddenly find himself in the new 12th. The new 12th still anchored in northeastern Franklin County, taking in much of Columbus. It yields Reynoldsburg, Bexley, and Dublin to the new 15th, but gains Worthingon, Upper Arlington, Marble Cliff, and Grandview Heights from it as well as Whitehall from the current 7th. Furthermore, the district also stretches to include not only OSU but its surrounding neighborhoods. The new 12th also sheds Delaware County in favor of Dem-friendly Newark in Licking County. Jennifer Brunner for Congress anyone? Or perhaps Paula Brooks can run again?
Statistics
VAP: White (75.1%); Black (16.7%); Hispanic (3.1%); Asian (3.3%); Other (1.8%)
2008 Pres: Obama (57.3%) - McCain (41.2%)
Avg Votes: DEM (55.9%) - GOP (44.1%)
Probable Status
Likely D
15th District
Incumbent in Residence
none
Changes
Devoid of incumbents, the new 15th is definitely a swing district with a slight Democratic lean. Under these new lines, the district shrinks and becomes more compact, taking in the three-fourths of Franklin County that is excluded from the new 12th, as well as western and southern Columbus. It also takes in just parts of Union and Madison Counties, versus the entire counties under the current lines. Can Mary Jo Kilroy mount a comeback bid under these new lines? Or perhaps ex-AG and Treasurer Richard Cordray of Grove City?
Statistics
VAP: White (74.4%); Black (16.1%); Hispanic (3.8%); Asian (3.8%); Other (1.8%)
2008 Pres: Obama (54.2%) - McCain (44.3%)
Avg Votes: DEM (53.6%) - GOP (46.4%)
Probable Status
Leans D
NORTHERN OHIO
9th District
Incumbent in Residence
Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo); elected in 1982
Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green); elected in 2007
Changes
Due to population losses, the new 9th now stretches from Toledo all the way to the Indiana border, taking in all of the current 9th as well as a large chunk of the current 5th. Despite these new additions, the new 9th is surprisingly still a Democratic stronghold, and Bob Latta faces a difficult race if he decides to run in this new district. Marcy Kaptur should be able to hold this new district.
Statistics
VAP: White (81.7%); Black (11.2%); Hispanic (4.5%); Asian (1.3%); Other (1.3%)
2008 Pres: Obama (58.7%) - McCain (39.7%)
Avg Votes: DEM (60.6%) - GOP (39.4%)
Probable Status
Safe D
10th District
Incumbent in Residence
Dennis Kucinich (D-Cleveland); elected in 1996
Changes
I actually drew this map with the main goal of keeping Kucinich in Ohio. To be clear, I am just drawing a district that he (or perhaps another Democrat) can run in and hold. Although the district's urban core is mostly preserved, the district does shift westward to account for population losses in Cleveland and the neighboring 11th District. Anchored in western Cleveland, the new 10th now stretches to include all of Cuyahoga and also takes in some of Lorain and Medina Counties while yielding Garfield Heights, Cuyahoga Heights, Newburgh Heights, Independence, Walton Hills, Seven Hills, Valley View, and Glenwillow to the new 11th. These new lines does push the 10th a few notches towards the center at the presidential level, but it should stay blue with the right candidate. I may play around with the 10th and 11th a little bit more to shore them up, but it may come at the expense of the 13th and 14th.
Statistics
VAP: White (86.8%); Black (4.5%); Hispanic (5.3%); Asian (2.3%); Other (1.2%)
2008 Pres: Obama (55.4%) - McCain (43.2%)
Avg Votes: DEM (60.6%) - GOP (39.4%)
Probable Status
Lean/Likely D
11th District
Incumbent in Residence
Marcia Fudge (D-Warrensville Heights); elected in 2008
Changes
Like the new 10th, not much happens to this district in terms of territory. The new 11th is still anchored in eastern Cleveland, taking in a majority of the city's African-American neighborhoods. However, demographics do change drastically: population losses in Cleveland will force the district to stretch out to include predominantly white areas in Central Cleveland, eastern Cuyahoga, and some of northern Summit County, thus resulting in a district where although the VAP is minority-majority, African-Americans no longer account for a majority of the district's VAP and only constitute a plurality of the district's total population. Despite these changes, I have no doubt that Marcia Fudge will be able to hold this district: the changes to this district notwithstanding, it will remain a Democratic stronghold/vote sink. I will try playing around with the 10th and 11th to restore the latter's minority-majority status, although I'm not guaranteeing results as clean as the lines I produced here.
Statistics
VAP: White (48.3%); Black (45.3%); Hispanic (2.1%); Asian (2.8%); Other (1.4%)
2008 Pres: Obama (77.3%) - McCain (21.9%)
Avg Votes: DEM (78.0%) - GOP (22.0%)
Probable Status
Safe D
13th District
Incumbent in Residence
none
Changes
The new 13th is transformed under this plan. The district shifts westwards, shedding its main population base of Summit County (and Betty Sutton with it), as well as portions of Cuyahoga and Medina Counties that the current 13th takes in. The district does maintain its base in northeast Lorain County, and from there stretches in all directions to take territory from the current 4th, 9th, and 16th. The loss of heavily Democratic Akron is offset by gaining Dem-friendly cities and towns such as Mansfield, Sandusky, Oberlin, and Wooster. This has the makings to be a classic swing district.
Statistics
VAP: White (87.6%); Black (6.2%); Hispanic (4.3%); Asian (0.7%); Other (1.2%)
2008 Pres: Obama (50.7%) - McCain (47.3%)
Avg Votes: DEM (55.2%) - GOP (44.8%)
Probable Status
Tossup
14th District
Incumbent in Residence
Betty Sutton (D-Copley); elected in 2006
Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth); elected in 2010
Changes
The newly configured 14th finally places all of Akron in one compact district. The district is formed with parts of the current 13th, 16th, and 17th districts. Betty Sutton can definitely run here if she opts not to move to the new 13th, as it includes a bulk of her old district. Jim Renacci, on the other hand, may find this new district a bit too blue for his liking. Although the new 14th takes in his base of Medina County, its red lean is neutralized (if not overwhelmed) by the inclusion of Summit County.
Statistics
VAP: White (86%); Black (9.8%); Hispanic (1.3%); Asian (1.7%); Other (1.3%)
2008 Pres: Obama (54.8%) - McCain (43.8%)
Avg Votes: DEM (60.2%) - GOP (39.8%)
Probable Status
Safe D
EASTERN OHIO
5th District
Incumbent in Residence
Steve LaTourette (R-Bainbridge Township); elected in 1994
Changes
The new 5th relocates from the northwestern to the northeastern corner of the state, and is formed with bits and parts from the current 14th, 16th, 17th, and 18th districts. The new 5th is also a swing district: although it contains GOP-leaning Geauga, Carroll, and Columbiana Counties, it is also anchored by the Dem-friendly cities of Canton, Massillon, and Kent. Obama carried this new district with a plurality. Steve LaTourette can probably hold this new district, although that is no longer a certainty, given that it only takes in half of his current 14th.
Statistics
VAP: White (92.8%); Black (4.4%); Hispanic (1.1%); Asian (0.6%); Other (1.1%)
2008 Pres: Obama (49.2%) - McCain (48.7%)
Avg Votes: DEM (55.6%) - GOP (44.4%)
Probable Status
Leans R
16th District
Incumbent in Residence
Tim Ryan (D-Niles); elected in 2002
Bill Johnson (R-Poland); elected in 2010
Changes
Formed by using parts of the current 14th, 17th, and 6th Districts, the newly-constituted 16th District stretches from the coast to Mahoning County. Under these new lines, the hook-shaped district will be Democratic turf, taking in Dem-friendy Youngstown, Warren, Ashtabula, and Painesville. Tim Ryan can definitely run here, as the district keeps his base of Youngstown and Trumbull County. The same cannot be said of Bill Johnson. Although he can run in this new district because it includes his hometown of Poland at its southern tip, everything north of that (aka the entire district) will be new and less friendly territory for him. Steve LaTourette also has the option of running here if he chooses not to run in the new 5th, as the new 16th takes in the eastern half of his current 14th - including Lake County, where he served as county prosecutor for six years prior to being elected to the House in 1994.
Statistics
VAP: White (87.3%); Black (8.2%); Hispanic (2.7%); Asian (0.8%); Other (1.1%)
2008 Pres: Obama (57.8%) - McCain (40.3%)
Avg Votes: DEM (64.9%) - GOP (35.1%)
Probable Status
Likely D
Thoughts? Comments?