Skip to main content

Wisconsin map
The Republican-controlled legislature in Wisconsin unveiled their proposed redistricting map today. If you're getting a strong sense of deja vu, though, it's because the map that was released today looks virtually identical to the map that was leaked a few weeks ago. It looks like their plan is to go ahead and push the map through the legislature (and GOP Gov. Scott Walker's desk) before the recall elections later this summer, where their hold on the state Senate may come to an end (and with it, their control of the trifecta for redistricting purposes).

That said, this map isn't a Machiavellian triumph in the same way as last North Carolina's map, but more of a reinforcement of the status quo designed to shore up the delegation's 5-3 GOP majority around the margins. Probably the most significant change-up is swapping territory between the southwestern WI-03, held by moderate Dem. Ron Kind (who may be vacating to run for Senate, though), and the northern WI-07, picked up in 2010 by GOP frosh Sean Duffy. Kind's district picks up Democratic-leaning Portage County (home of college town Stevens Point), while Duffy's district picks up swingy but Republican-trending St. Croix County, which is at this point becoming a distant exurb of the Minneapolis area. Even this change is pretty marginal, though, probably making the 3rd and 7th two or three points more blue and red, respectively. (If you want to see a map that overlays the current boundaries with the proposed new ones, check out this Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel article.)

The Republicans also look to be shoring up Paul Ryan's Racine-based WI-01, by giving him a bigger share of Waukesha County, Milwaukee's western suburbs and the epicenter of conservatism in the state; previously Jim Sensenbrenner's WI-05 occupied most of Waukesha Co. (Ryan hasn't been challenged seriously before, despite occupying a pretty swingy district that went 51% for Obama.)

They're also apparently looking at WI-06, a district that hasn't really ever been on the map in my lifetime, occupied for more than 30 years by sorta-moderate GOPer Tom Petri, probably with an eye toward nailing it down in the likelihood of an open seat at some point this decade. The district was 50% Obama in its current configuration, so they took away affluent exurban Ozaukee County from Sensenbrenner and gave it to the 6th. (To make up for losing Ozaukee and parts of Waukesha, the 5th instead sheds the Democratic-leaning North Shore suburbs within Milwaukee County, like Whitefish Bay and Fox Point, so the 5th can safely stay red. See here for a closeup of the Milwaukee-area map.) The 6th also gives suburban areas around Oshkosh in the Fox Valley to the 8th, which may make GOP frosh Reid Ribble's district a tiny smidge bluer.

Neither of the state's other two Democrats, Gwen Moore (in Milwaukee's 4th) or Tammy Baldwin (in Madison's 2nd) are in any danger under the new map. As most experts expected, the Republicans had limited options and were mostly oriented toward maximally protecting the gains they made from their overperformance in 2010. At this point, the question is whether they can successfully push this through before the recalls are done.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  And the other question is whether we'll have a (4+ / 0-)

    decent shot of picking up 01, 07, and 08 anyway.

    "every time we start a pie fight a wingnut gets his wings"- MinistryofTruth -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 04:57:50 PM PDT

  •  Thoughs: (6+ / 0-)

    1. Comparing the map to North Carolina's is to kind. Voters in NC are a lot more polarized, where as in Wisconsin there's a lot more swing territory. If they could draw a 6-2 map, they could. However, the best you can manage for republicans in WI is 5-3. Even under these somewhat ugly lines, Ryan and Duffy are still swingy seats, Duffy's just goes from lean D to tossup or lean R.

    2. The attempts to "shore up" Ryan are massive fail. They could have given Ryan a safe district by giving him a lot more Waukesha county. As it is, he barely gets more Waukesha, and it's less than it looks like because it's in the sparsely populated western part of the county. They could have given him Brookfeild and New Berlin and it would have been game over for dem chances in this district. The only logical explanations I can think of are:
    -Paul Ryan has never faced a real challenge and assumes he won't in the future
    -Jim Sensenbrenner was being a crybaby.

    3. Did I mention that the third is ugly? Seriously, the linchpins of this gerrymander are:
    -throw St. Croix into Duffy's district
    -Keep Eau Claire in Kind's district and throw in Chippewa Falls.
    -Throw Stevens point in Kind's district.
    All of which are quite possible to do without making a district that looks like it has a flexed arm wearing a boxing glove.

  •  I don't get this (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    davybaby

    The WI GOP has no reason not to put Racine City in Moore's district and reddish 'burbs in Milwaukee County in Sensenbrenner's. That would allow Ryan to absorb more ruby red Waukesha County. I've made Ryan's district at about 46% on DRA, even with Janesville and Kenosha City. Ryan, and his successors, are vulnerable--not very vulnerable, but vulnerable.

    NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

    by nycyoungin on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 06:11:20 PM PDT

  •  WI-7 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KingofSpades

    Still a toss-up, and Duffy has already written all the attack ads for the Dems with his dumb ass, I'm broke, too, line.  And this district is already not going to be friendly to pretty boys who make too much money, like Duffy.  (Saying Duffy "doesn't live in the real world" is a good line.)

    I really like Kreitlow as our nominee, but it appears he's been drawn out of the district.  He's a former 6pm and 10pm news anchor based out of Eau Claire, so he's got better name rec. than most in-district legislators for WI-3 and WI-7.  I'm not concerned about it, and it never seems like anyone should.

    •  Kreitlow (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I think he's still technically in the district, but he's not going to have the advantage of the Dem areas of Chippewa Falls anymore.  He'll have to win more as a generic D Dem than as someone with a natural home base of Dem votes.  Which, with Duffy's gaffes and the Dem voter momentum in the state (if it holds through November 2012), might be enough for Kreitlow (or any Dem that runs).

  •  Redistricting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Does anyone know a site where I can find a list of when each state does Redistricting.

  •  Redistricting schedule is mandated. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG

    The constitution requires redistricting to be finished within a year of the census, which was in 2010.  This means that the Republicans might not have chosen the timing for their personal gain but rather just because they had to do it now.  This is slightly heartening because if they had come out with wanting to do redistricting now entirely on their own, that would be evidence that they had found some way to do it that is heavily in their favor.  But when the schedule is constitutionally mandated rather than by their choice that means they might not have found a way to do it that gives them a bigger advantage than they already have.

  •  Legislative boundaries (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Here's the map of legislative boundaries in Wisconsin:

    Legislative Boundaries

    Any thoughts?  The little commentary I've read seems to indicate that this could do a good job shoring up the GOP majority for the coming years.

    •  Both Senate and Assembly (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      are they actually using the Fox River to split districts (can't tell from these maps)?  

      That's strange as that strip of cities/towns tend to have population on both sides of the river.

      http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

      by tommypaine on Sat Jul 09, 2011 at 04:25:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That sounds like cracking, at first glance. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        n/t

        •  It is (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          As for more general thoughts, the biggest feature of this map is a baconmander of the the Milwaukee suburbs at the assembly level, but they found lots of other creative ways to screw us over in other parts of the state. The assembly map is completely brutal. The Senate map doesn't get much worse for us except in the 5th, 8th, and 21st, which are now all beyond reach. I'm sure if they could have messed more with the Senate Map, they would have, but there's really not much they could have done since the state is so swingy.

  •  The most gerrymandered map in Wisconsin History (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    That said, other then the goofy boundary between 3 and 7, it's really not all that objectionable. The boundary between 1 and 2 was obviously drawn with the idea of keeping Ryan in the 1st (he lives in Janesville).

    The best thing about this map is that I am no longer in Sensenbrenner's district, but have instead flopped to Petri. The 6th would still be takeable by a strong democratic candidate should Petri ever vacate the seat.

    Suspicion Breeds Confidence

    by tlf on Mon Jul 11, 2011 at 07:05:23 AM PDT

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site