The most recent scientific poll conducted by Puerto Rico’s main newspaper El Nuevo Día about the political status of this caribbean island did not bring any surprise, things remain the same overall. The US Statehood option leads by a very small margin (43%) while the Enhanced or Sovereign Commonwealth (official name: Estado Libre Asociado; english translation: Associated Free State) came a close second (39%), the Republic or Independence option showed a minor but significant increase compared to the previous poll (7%). 11% did not answer, are undecided or do not vote.
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Analysis
What does it mean?
1. The US Statehood option is stagnant, shows no growth and seems to have peaked a long time ago. The option has a problem, its lack of definition is a hot issue, the US Congress has never voted on statehood requirements for Puerto Rico. Some questions unaswered: Will the spanish language remain the main ‘power’’ language under US statehood, for example: government, schools, business (Hawaii and New Mexico are presented as two examples were main language was lost or deeply crippled right after achieving US statehood) ? Will PR be able to keep its national olympic team (who can forget Puerto Rico's victory over USA dream team - Athens 2004?) and or international representation as a nation with its own national anthem and flag (Hong Kong and Taiwan are presented as examples)? Economic questions like taxes and which electoral percentage is required (over 90%? 50.01%?) to be accepted as a US state are unanswered. Most pro US statehood supporters believe in the ‘Estadidad Jíbara’ a 'puertoricanized US Statehood' which was promoted by the present pro statehood party and its founder Luis Ferré (1967), a version that keeps spanish language as the main or ‘power’ language, as it is today, and with national (Puerto Rican) identity: puerto rican olympic team and or international representation as a nation in events like Ms. Universe or any other international events...
2. The Enhanced or Sovereign Commonwealth option is stable but it has its own problems too. The definition of Commonwealth , either as a sovereign nation with a free association treaty or as an enhanced commonwealth (a self governing nation with a ‘permanent’ compact of association with the US) is very problematic for the political party that supports this option. The party is divided between those who seek sovereignty and a free association treaty with the US (similar to the one signed with the Republic of Palau) and those who seek enhanced powers, greater autonomy and full international representation as a nation without reaching sovereign status. There is a power struggle between these two factions.
3. The Republic or Independence option is stagnant as well and its numbers are much bigger than the pro independence party electoral percentage, meaning most pro republic supporters do not sympathize with the present pro independence party. This option has a problem, it competes with the sovereignty option that is being pushed by those seeking a sovereign Puerto Rico with a free association treaty (the sovereign commonwealth version, in spanish: Estado Libre Asociado Soberano, see number 2). Like in past referendums and elections, 25% in this group probably will end up voting for the Enhanced or Sovereign Commonwealth option to stop US Statehood from winning. They are the important 'swing vote' that sometimes decide who wins tight election races (in 2004 the pro commonwealth party won thanks to a large amount of pro independence voters)
4. 11% are undecided, do not vote or do not answer. Not a significant amount compared to past polls.
5. 33% said referendums should not be the way to resolve the status problem, 34% believe they are never going to see a final solution during their lifetime while 27% said 'yes', only 22% said 'maybe' (17% did not answer). The pro statehood party is the only political party right now that supports referendums and rejects the constitutional assembly, the other political parties and organizations support a national constitutional assembly. The present government of Puerto Rico is seeking a referendum which could be held later this year or next year. The pro commonwealth party is against referendums and supports a national constitutional assembly as the only tool to finally resolve the status problem. The pro independence party also supports the national constitutional assembly but is negotiating with the pro statehood party a new referendum which would ask 2 questions. The first question would be: You want to continue under the commonwealth defined as a territory, yes or no?. If the answer is no, then a follow up question: statehood, independence or sovereign commonwealth.
6. The political status of Puerto Rico is on the spotlight again. The United Nations decolonization committee passed a resolution this month on Puerto Rico's political status.
Bearing in mind that 25 July marked the 113th anniversary of the intervention in Puerto Rico by the United States, the Special Committee on Decolonization today adopted a consensus text calling on the United States to expedite a process that would allow Puerto Ricans to fully exercise their inalienable right to self-determination and independence, in line with General Assembly resolution 1514 (XV) (1960).
By today’s resolution, the 29-member body also noted that any initiative to resolve the political status of the island should originate from Puerto Ricans themselves. It further noted the debate in Puerto Rico on the implementation of a mechanism to ensure the full participation of representatives of all viewpoints, including a constitutional assembly on status, with a basis in the decolonization alternatives recognized in international law. By other terms, the Special Committee expressed serious concern at actions carried out against Puerto Rican independence fighters and encouraged investigations with the “necessary rigour” and cooperation of relevant authorities. The General Assembly was requested to consider the question of Puerto Rico in all its aspects.
While President Obama visited Puerto Rico this month, the first US presidential visit to Puerto Rico since John Kennedy's trip in 1961, almost 50 years ago. Also a Presidential Task Force on Puerto Rico was published a few months ago.