This is my first diary so I apologize in advance for any errors.
As a daily reader of both Daily Kos and RealClearPolitics I always read the headlines that stand out. Today I saw that two new polls from PPP and Rasmussen were released showing President Obama in a virtual tie with Republican Mitt Romney. Now I'm not here to debate whether or not I think Romney will be the nominee. ( I have my doubts) Instead I am here to try and use history as a guidepost to the up coming election. A President's approval rating is the best way to judge how successful they will be running for re election. Gallup has an awesome tool where you can compare the approval ratings of past Presidents and try to find trends. I wanted to investigate three Presidents who are usually compared to President Obama in respect to their electoral fortunes. Democrats point out that both President Reagan and President Clinton faced economic downturns and suffered heavily in their first midterm. By the time their re election came around voters rewarded them with electoral landslides. In contrast Republicans enjoy calling President Obama a second Carter who was defeated in his re election bid.
Polling numbers
Currently President Obama finds himself in the lower to mid 40's. At the same time in both Reagan and Clinton's presidencies they also had approvals in the mid to lower 40's. President Carter meanwhile had fallen into the mid to upper 30's at the same time in his presidency as OCR was in the 40's. Now each President had their individual events that altered their approval ratings. But when you remove those events and average out the results you find a clear pattern for a predictor of electoral success.
2012 Warning Signs
Both President Reagan and Clinton began to climb in approval towards the end of their third year. By the time the October of their elections came around they both had approval ratings in the upper 50's. Carter meanwhile never was able to recover and still had a weak approval rating on election day 1980. If President Obama is still in the lower 40's come next spring and summer it is highly unlikely he will be re elected. If President Obama is to share in the comeback success of both Reagan and Clinton his numbers should reach the 50% mark by mid November. Anything less should scream warning signs in Obama For America.