If you were born after 1972 (or even before then) the answer is YES! Maybe not right now, but sometime and sooner rather than later - all the interest due from those Treasury Bills in the Trust Fund has to come from somewhere (and Congress has to decide where) starting soon.
Since Payroll taxes alone were less than the Payout starting in 2010, Congress has to start finding that T-Bill interest right now. If Payroll taxes are even less than projected here (and that's a real possibility given the poor job market), the problem is magnified.
Here's the numbers (in billions) for Social Security alone (no Medicare or Medicaid numbers involved).
The Total Income (Payroll Tax Revenue (including Tax on SS Benefits paid by higher income recipients) plus Interest from Treasury Bills (bought with excess Payroll Taxes) in the Trust Fund stays ahead of the Payout (SS benefits) until 2024.
After 2024, The Payout is greater than the Total Income which means the Deficit has to be made up from somewhere else (Congress has to decide where or SS payments have to be cut). By 2037 the Treasury Bills interest and the Trust Fund are all used up, and the Revenue (Payroll Tax only) is less than the Payout (SS benefits).
The numbers are from http://aging.senate.gov/... (Page 9). This is a research document Congress requested last year and includes summaries of all the past and present attempts to wrestle with this problem - including the Ryan plan.
Read 'em and weep.
Year Tax Interest Total Cost Annual Cash Flow Trust Fund
Revenue Income Income (Payout) Surplus/ Surplus/ Balance
Deficit Deficit
(w/Interest)(wo/Interest)
2010 673.2 118.1 791.3 714.6 76.7 -41.4 2617.0
2011 722.8 118.1 840.8 729.6 111.2 -6.8 2685.4
2012 751.0 122.1 873.1 749.3 123.8 +1.7 2748.8
2013 779.7 128.2 907.9 774.8 133.1 +4.9 2810.3
2014 806.4 134.6 941.0 802.8 138.2 +3.6 2871.9
2015 830.4 140.7 971.1 833.0 138.1 -2.6 2931.8
2016 855.4 146.7 1002.1 864.8 137.3 -9.4 2989.2
2017 877.0 152.8 1029.8 898.3 131.5 -21.3 3039.3
2018 896.7 158.3 1054.9 933.3 121.6 -36.6 3078.1
2019 913.1 162.2 1075.3 969.8 105.5 -56.7 3099.8
2020 929.1 164.8 1094.0 1007.4 86.6 -78.3 3101.9
2021 944.7 166.4 1111.1 1045.0 66.1 -100.3 3083.5
2022 960.3 166.9 1127.2 1082.3 44.9 -122.0 3044.4
2023 976.3 166.2 1142.5 1119.8 22.7 -143.5 2984.2
2024 992.8 164.3 1157.1 1157.0 0.1 -164.2 2903.0
2025 1009.3 159.2 1168.5 1194.0 -25.5 -184.7 2798.5
2026 1026.3 152.8 1179.1 1230.1 -51.0 -203.8 2671.3
2027 1043.9 145.2 1189.1 1265.7 -76.6 -221.8 2521.9
2028 1061.8 136.3 1198.2 1300.4 -102.2 -238.6 2350.9
2029 1079.8 126.3 1206.0 1333.8 -127.8 -254.0 2159.1
2030 1098.2 115.2 1213.4 1365.7 -152.3 -267.5 1948.0
2031 1117.5 103.0 1220.4 1397.3 -176.9 -279.8 1718.1
2032 1137.0 89.7 1226.7 1428.2 -201.5 -291.2 1469.8
2033 1156.7 75.5 1232.2 1458.1 -225.9 -301.4 1203.9
2034 1176.6 60.3 1236.9 1486.7 -249.8 -310.1 921.3
2035 1196.9 44.3 1241.2 1514.2 -273.0 -317.3 623.3
2036 1217.9 27.4 1245.3 1541.2 -295.9 -323.3 310.4