If I had a hammer
I'd hammer in the morning
I'd hammer in the evening
all over this land
I'd hammer out danger
I'd hammer out a warning
I'd hammer out love between my brothers and my sisters
all over this land.
Lee Hays and Pete Seeger
We live in very interesting times.
Today, as in years past, scholars and pundits and armchair political theorists (like myself) contemplate and discuss the power of the American presidency. From Jefferson's purchase of the Louisiana territory to Bush's wiretapping programs, Americans have always been enthralled by and divided over the subject of executive power.
However, no president, not Jackson or Lincoln or Nixon, has ever been able to exert as much influence over the nation and the world as President Obama can at this moment. I don't believe that any leader in the history of our species has been endowed with as much unfettered power as this president currently possesses. I am surprised that nobody else who contributes to this site (so far as I can tell) has come to this realization.
Ironically, the President has come by this newly acquired power as a direct result of the posturing of his opposition during the debt ceiling negotiations, and as Republican intransigence brings us closer to the August 2 debt ceiling deadline, the President's position becomes even more powerful.
The Constitution provides the executive a ten day window, excepting Sundays, to either veto or sign a bill passed by Congress before the bill becomes a law by default. Even if Congress were to convene today and pass a debt ceiling resolution, the resolution would not become law (and the debt ceiling would not be raised) without presidential approval until August 9 - seven days after the August 2 deadline.
To put it another way, we will not have a debt ceiling increase until at least August 9 unless the President allows it to happen. At this point, the President has legal authority to unilaterally send the US government into default. When has one person ever held that much power?
A more pertinent question: what could the President do with that power?
I will make a modest suggestion. The President should (privately) say that he is no longer willing to accept a "clean" debt ceiling increase. Further, the President should (privately) say that he is no longer willing to accept any cuts to "entitlement" programs like Social Security and Medicare.
Instead, the President should (publically) say that he will continue to seek a "balanced approach" to deficit reduction that includes spending cuts and new government revenues. The President should say that the spending cuts will come from the Pentagon's budget, as requested by republican Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and the elimination of frivolous tax credits and subsidies. The President should say that the new government revenues will come from closing tax loopholes, closing offshore tax havens, repealing the Bush tax cuts and eliminating the Social Security cap.
While we're at it... let's repeal DOMA.
Such an approach would result in the single largest act of deficit reduction in American history and, with a little growth in years to come, could potentially eliminate the deficit altogether.
This strategy begs two questions: would republicans capitulate, and what happens if they do not?
I believe the answer to the first question is yes. After all, who stands to gain the most from a debt ceiling extension? Answer: the wealthy. If the President were to take a hard line on the debt ceiling, if he were to let the folks on Wall Street know that he was willing and able to allow the nation to default, I believe that the investor class and their political allies (like the Chamber of Commerce) would force "moderate" House republicans and a handful of republican senators to fold.
The President only needs about 25 House republicans (a little more than one in ten) and 10 Senate Republicans to form the majorities he requires in each house (assuming all democrats play along).
What if the republicans drag things out? What happens on August 9?
Assuming Congress passed a debt ceiling resolution today (which it won't), the President could wait until at least August 9 to issue a veto. Afterward, two-thirds of both chambers of Congress would have to vote to override the veto. Here is the problem: 60 House republicans have stated that they will not vote for any debt limit increase. There are eighty-or-so members of the progressive caucus in the House. Between intransigent House republicans and progressive House democrats, the President has nearly all the votes he needs to prevent a veto override. I believe House progressives would get behind the President if he pursued this course of action.
What if I am altogether wrong, and the republicans never capitulate?
There are four answers to this question. First, I am right. Second, the President can accept a clean bill from Congress at any time. Third, the President can accept an altogether different deficit reduction bill at any time. Fourth, the President can unilaterally raise the debt ceiling at any time (legal opinions not withstanding) by citing the 14th Amendment.
The better question: what if I am right?
If I am right, the President can do more to affect deficit reduction than any President in history, and he can do it on the backs of the people with the broadest shoulders. If I am right, the President can restore some semblance of justice to the tax code and the federal government's spending habits. If I am right, the President can reestablish good will with his "liberal" base. If I am right, the President will win reelection handily with coattails large enough to accommodate many. If I am right, the President can one-punch the elite and their handlers (republicans) in a way none of us have ever witnessed before. I might have to TiVo CSPAN.
If I'm wrong, the President can wave his pen at the problem and make it go away.
That's presidential power I can believe in.
The President has a hammer. Republicans spent 14 trillion dollars to manufacture it. The President has a bell, it signals the start of trading on Wall Street every morning. The President has a song, a balanced approach to long-term deficit management.
What will the President do with this power? I don't know, but I can tell you what I would say if I were in his position:
Well I've got a hammer
And I've got a bell
And I've got a song to sing
All over this land
It's the hammer of justice
It's the bell of freedom
It's the song about love between my brothers and my sisters
All over this land