Solar activity is failing to revive normally after the deepest solar minimum in a century. This solar cycle, number 24, is not only very late, it is off to a very weak start.
At the bottom of the solar minimum in 2009 the amount of energy radiated by the sun dropped to the lowest level since measurements began at the beginning of the space age. As of the latest report on February 2011 it failed to revive to the previous minimum.
The magnetic field strength of sunspots continues its long term decline. The magnetic field strength is trending to be too weak to produce spots before cycle 25 begins.
Matt Penn and William Livingston see a long-term weakening trend in the strength of sunspots, and predict that by Cycle 25 magnetic fields erupting on the Sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Spots are formed when intense magnetic flux tubes erupt from the interior and keep cooled gas from circulating back to the interior. For typical sunspots this magnetism has a strength of 2,500 to 3,500 gauss (Earth's magnetic field is less than 1 gauss at the surface); the field must reach at least 1,500 gauss to form a dark spot.
Using more than 13 years of sunspot data collected at the McMath-Pierce Telescope at Kitt Peak in Arizona, Penn and Livingston observed that the average field strength declined about 50 gauss per year during Cycle 23 and now in Cycle 24. They also observed that spot temperatures have risen exactly as expected for such changes in the magnetic field. If the trend continues, the field strength will drop below the 1,500 gauss threshold and spots will largely disappear as the magnetic field is no longer strong enough to overcome convective forces on the solar surface.
More after the croissant
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is providing unprecedented imagery of the sun as its activity declines. Solar flares like this may disappear in coming decades if we are entering another quiet period like the Maunder Minimum seen 300 years ago.
On June 7, 2011 the Sun unleashed an M-2 (medium-sized) solar flare with a spectacular coronal mass ejection (CME). The large cloud of particles mushroomed up and fell back down looking as if it covered an area almost half the solar surface.
SDO observed the flare's peak at 1:41 AM ET. SDO recorded these images in extreme ultraviolet light that show a very large eruption of cool gas. It is somewhat unique because at many places in the eruption there seems to be even cooler material -- at temperatures less than 80,000 K.
A missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles say that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years, according to scientists at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.
"This is highly unusual and unexpected," Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results. "But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation." |
Solar activity waxes and wanes in a cycle of about 11 years. With each activity cycle the sun's magnetic poles flip making an overall cycle of about 22 years. During the Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots during 1645-1715, these cycles apparently ceased, but no one knows why. Now, the sun may be entering a similar quiet period.
Mobile "jet streams" in the Sun migrate from the poles toward the equator as the solar cycle progresses. At left (solar minimum) the red jet streams are located near the poles. At right (solar maximum) they have migrated close to the equator. The jet streams are associated with the locations where sunspots emerge during the solar cycle, and are thought to play an important role in generating the Sun's magnetic field.
Latitude-time plots of jet streams under the Sun's surface show the surprising shutdown of the solar cycle mechanism. New jet streams typically form at about 50 degrees latitude (as in 1999 on this plot) and are associated with the following solar cycle 11 years later. New jet streams associated with a future 2018-2020 solar maximum were expected to form by 2008 but are not present even now, indicating a delayed or missing Cycle 25.
Hill is the lead author on one of three papers on these results being presented this week. Using data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) of six observing stations around the world, the team translates surface pulsations caused by sound reverberating through the Sun into models of the internal structure. One of their discoveries is an east-west zonal wind flow inside the Sun, called the torsional oscillation, which starts at mid-latitudes and migrates towards the equator. The latitude of this wind stream matches the new spot formation in each cycle, and successfully predicted the late onset of the current Cycle 24.
"We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now," Hill explained, "but we see no sign of it. This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all." |
The corona is super-heated million-degree plasma above the sun's surface. Studies of the corona by the air force reveal magnetic anomalies that indicate a shut down of solar activity.
Richard Altrock, manager of the Air Force's coronal research program at NSO's Sunspot, NM, facilities has observed a slowing of the "rush to the poles," the rapid poleward march of magnetic activity observed in the Sun's faint corona. Altrock used four decades of observations with NSO's 40-cm (16-inch) coronagraphic telescope at Sunspot.
"A key thing to understand is that those wonderful, delicate coronal features are actually powerful, robust magnetic structures rooted in the interior of the Sun," Altrock explained. "Changes we see in the corona reflect changes deep inside the Sun."
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Altrock used a photometer to map iron heated to 2 million degrees C (3.6 million F). Stripped of half of its electrons, it is easily concentrated by magnetism rising from the Sun. In a well-known pattern, new solar activity emerges first at about 70 degrees latitude at the start of a cycle, then towards the equator as the cycle ages. At the same time, the new magnetic fields push remnants of the older cycle as far as 85 degrees poleward.
Plots of coronal brightness against solar latitude show a "rush to the poles" that reflects the formation of subsurface shear in the solar polar regions. The current "rush to the poles" is delayed and weak, reflecting the lack of new shear under the photosphere. Note the graph depicts both north and south hemispheres overlaid into one map of solar magnetic activity
"In cycles 21 through 23, solar maximum occurred when this rush appeared at an average latitude of 76 degrees," Altrock said. "Cycle 24 started out late and slow and may not be strong enough to create a rush to the poles, indicating we'll see a very weak solar maximum in 2013, if at all. If the rush to the poles fails to complete, this creates a tremendous dilemma for the theorists, as it would mean that Cycle 23's magnetic field will not completely disappear from the polar regions (the rush to the poles accomplishes this feat). No one knows what the Sun will do in that case."
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The Maunder Minimum was associated with an extended period of cool weather. However, calculations of the amount of solar radiation decrease associated with a quiet sun is substantially less than the increase in heat retention caused by increasing levels of CO2 and other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. A quiet sun would slow that rate of increase of global warming, but would not reverse it.
One fact is clear. The sun is not the cause of earth's warming climate.
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