Texas's legislature may pass its own map and Gov. Goodhair might sign it, but that doesn't mean it's a done deal. As you all know, the map has serious VRA problems, as did the last two maps passed by the Texas legislature. A judge might get fed up, determine that the state legislature simply cannot do its job with respect to the VRA, and redraw the whole thing. Kind of an "I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul" type move. Images below:
All districts are within 100 people of the ideal population.
First District (no incumbent)
Rural East Texas
McCain 70.5-29.5
Louie Gohmert is a national embarrassment who's been drawn out of his district, instead of just a national embarrassment. But his street cred amongst Teabaggers — including his diligence on the most important issue of the day: terror babies — will help him in case he has to jump the border over to the First. And in a 70.5% McCain district, we'd be stuck with him. If he stays in the new 17th he'll be safe there and some other wingnut could take over here.
Second District (no incumbent)
Port of Houston-Beaumont
McCain 58.7-41.3
Ted Poe probably moves here from the Eighth District; it's still unlikely that a Democrat could win here even in a good year. Though his little spat with Kevin Brady over who gets Exxon HQ in his district may suggest otherwise. Also, putting the Port of Houston, Galveston and Beaumont together makes sense, which is why the state legislature and courts did that until Tom DeLay exterminated the value of keeping communities together in redistricting. Nick Lampson might run here even though it appears the days of ticket splitting are over.
Third District (Sam Johnson)
Collin County
McCain 62.5-37.5
Collin County and Denton County are each large enough for approximately one district each, and in this map most of Collin goes into the Third.
Fourth District (no incumbent)
Red River
McCain 71.2-28.8
Ralph Hall gets drawn out of this district and I'd venture that he'd retire instead of move at his age. This district takes in Craig James's house, so he might run for this seat. Which would be fantastic because a) he'd be no worse than whatever pond scum a 71.2% McCain district would vote for and b) it would take him off of college football broadcasts. Also, it'd be the second election he wins in as many years; he was recently voted onto Awful Announcing's Mount Rushmore (in case you weren't sure, that's not an honor).
Fifth District (Ralph Hall)
Dallas Eastern Suburbs
McCain 59.0-41.0
Jeb Hensarling and Pete Sessions get thrown into the same district when all of Dallas proper's Anglo neighborhoods are put into the Thirty-Second. I imagine Hensarling would move east since this district takes in more of his old voters, but Sessions did represent the Fifth in its old iteration and he might call dibs on the more Republican district.
Sixth District (Joe Barton)
Metroplexurbs
McCain 73.5-26.5
Crazy Joe Barton hits the jackpot and gets one of the most Republican districts in the country. It's a fine perch to apologize to BP for the president being so mean to them after they ruined the Gulf of Mexico.
Seventh District (John Culberson)
Anglo Houston
McCain 58.3-41.7
Culberson's district doesn't change very much. He received a bit of a scare in 2008 but it's unlikely he'd face a serious challenge again. Nevertheless, as suburban areas trend toward Team Blue, this may be a competitive seat by the end of the decade.
Eighth District (Kevin Brady, Ted Poe)
North Houston Suburbs
McCain 74.2-25.8
In case Poe decides to stay in the Eighth, he might actually have a chance against Brady since Brady has supported gun control because his father was shot in a courtroom. And we all know how much Teabaggers abhor displays of empathy.
Ninth District (Al Green)
Diverse Houston
Obama 69.4-30.6
VAP: 16.2% White, 28.8% AA, 38.4% Latino, 15.1% Asian
The jury is still out on the protected status of minority coalition districts. Well, technically the judge is still out since it's a question of law not a question of fact. Regardless, this map presumes that such districts are protected, and this one should send a minority Democrat to Congress most years. For now it's the Reverend, but who knows who would take his place?
Tenth District (no incumbent)
West Houston Suburbs
McCain 69.3-30.7
Thanks to the aftereffects of the Delaymander, the Tenth has migrated from Austin to Houston. It doesn't have an incumbent, so expect a group of local Republicans to get into a pissing contest about which one is craziest. Mike McCaul could also move here from the 36th, which would have given a slim majority of the two-party vote to President Obama.
Eleventh District (no incumbent)
West Texas Farmland
McCain 75.4-24.6
Hard to imagine that Charlie Stenholm held the predecessor to this district. This map divides West Texas south of the Panhandle on an East-West axis rather than a North-South one so Mike Conaway and Randy Neugebauer (the Khloe Kardashian to Joe Wilson's Kim Kardashian) would face off against each other, which they did in 2002 with Neugebauer winning. Thus, I anticipate Conaway would be the one moving east to this district.
Twelfth District (Kay Granger)
Southern Tarrant County
Obama 50.7-49.3
The Anglo sections of Fort Worth and Arlington are slammed together to create a district that Jim Wright might have a chance to win today. Granger somehow still cuts a moderate profile even though she toes the party line with regularity. She would still win this district but her retirement would lead to a contentious election.
Thirteenth District (Mac Thornberry)
Panhandle
McCain 76.7-23.3
The most Republican district in the country. Hard to imagine that this was represented by a Democrat in 1994. Of course, the Upper East Side was represented by a Republican until 1992, so at least Democrats occupy better real estate these days.
Fourteenth District (Bill Flores)
Rural South Texas
McCain 67.7-32.3
This Rubenesque district combines rural areas in East Texas and the Gulf Coast while skirting metropolitan Austin and Houston. Hence the odd shape. However, it still combines communities of interest. If Ron Paul were running for re-election he'd probably have dibs on this seat, but now it belongs to Bill Flores.
Fifteenth District (Ruben Hinojosa)
McAllen
Obama 65.4-34.6
VAP: 85.3% Latino
The Fifteenth District becomes much safer and more compact. You could make a Hidalgo County-only district but it would lower the Latino VAPs of the 27th and 28th.
Sixteenth District (Silvestre Reyes)
El Paso
Obama 65.8-34.2
VAP: 75.8% Latino
The Sixteenth gets a little less Latino to help shore up the 23rd's Latino VAP but it remains a Democratic stronghold at the edge of the state.
Seventeenth District (Louie Gohmert)
Waco and Rural Areas to the East
McCain 67.7-32.3
Gohmert gets to choose between the 1st and the 17th, but either would return him to Congress.
Eighteenth District (Sheila Jackson Lee)
Black Houston
Obama 83.6-16.4
VAP: 47.4% AA, 29.6% Latino, 17.2% White
The district has some new territory. Houston Democrats; please primary Jackson Lee so we can end this embarrassment to the caucus.
Nineteenth District (Randy Neugebauer and Mike Conaway)
West Texas
McCain 73.7-26.3
It's the "Where George W. Bush lived when he was still drinking" district! Per the discussion above, Neugebauer will use this as his launch pad to call pro-life Democrats baby killers for the next ten years.
Twentieth District (Quico Canseco and Charlie Gonzalez)
San Antonio
Obama 56.6-43.4
VAP: 61% Latino
The new 35th has the same Latino VAP but is more Democratic, so Gonzalez might choose to run there instead. A 56.6% Obama district isn't entirely safe, especially one with a population that has trouble turning out in midterm elections. Further, Canseco would probably run in the adjacent 23rd. Thus, this would be an open seat, ripe for Joaquin Castro's picking.
Twenty-First District (Lamar Smith)
Anglo San Antonio
McCain 67.7-32.3
The Anglo areas of Bexar County and its suburbs stay in one district. This has been known as the Hill Country district, but the Hill Country is so populous these days that the designation doesn't make sense.
Twenty-Second District (Pete Olson and Ron Paul)
Fort Bend-Brazoria
McCain 63.9-36.1
Tom DeLay's old stomping grounds stay Republican. Instead of digging into Harris County, this mostly consists of Fort Bend and Brazora counties. Olson should send DeLay thank you notes for imploding so spectacularly.
Twenty-Third District (no incumbent)
Rio Grande
Obama 52-48
72.9% Latino VAP
Up from 55% Latino in the district's old iteration. It's R+1 because so many of its inhabitants are undocumented immigrants, so Quico Canseco still would have a shot here if he's willing to (at least pretend to) move out of San Antonio. Otherwise, it might be represented by a non-San Antonio resident for the first time since 1985.
Twenty-Fourth District (no incumbent)
Northern Tarrant
McCain 62.8-37.2
Kenny Merchant lives just over the Dallas County line in Coppell, but he's already represented most of this district already. And there's no way Martin Frost would have a shot here.
Twenty-Fifth District (Lloyd Doggett)
Austin
Obama 72.6-27.4
VAP: 43.6% White, 38.2% Latino, 10.7% AA
This is a minority coalition district entirely within Travis County. Doggett could hold onto it for a while longer, but as the Latino population grows it may eventually select one of its own.
Twenty-Sixth District (Michael Burgess)
Denton County
McCain 61.9-38.1
I like Burgess. He's not particularly noxious, and he prevented Scott Evil, err, Scott Armey from taking his father's seat. Any time a legacy candidate loses, an angel gets his wings.
Twenty-Seventh District (Blake Farenthold)
Corpus Christi-Brownsville
Obama 55.5-44.5
VAP: 71.1% Latino
Farenthold barely won in one of the worst Democratic years ever against a lackadaisical opponent. Now the district becomes more Democratic and more Latino. Don't count on him pulling another rabbit out of a hat.
Twenty-Eighth District (Henry Cuellar)
Laredo
Obama 56.2-43.8
VAP: 74.8% Latino
Cuellar seems personally popular enough to hold onto this seat indefinitely. It becomes more Democratic under this remap, even though he loses some of his Laredo base.
Twenty-Ninth District (no incumbent)
East Houston
McCain 52.3-47.7
VAP: 58% Latino
I made two majority Latino districts in Harris County, but voter participation is so low here that this is a McCain district. My guess is Gene Green would run in the nearby 33rd, though I cannot tell which one he actually lives in. This would be a lean Republican district until registration numbers go up.
Thirtieth District (Eddie Bernice Johnson)
South Dallas
Obama 80.2-19.8
45.8% AA, 30.7% Latino
Now this district goes all the way to Dallas County's southwest border, taking in AA precincts in Grand Prairie. But Johnson should have this district as long as she wants it.
Thirty-First District (no incumbent)
Austin Exurbs
McCain 56.4-43.6
John Carter represented much of this old area so he would probably move here from the 36th. It'd be safe Republican now but with the blueing of the Austin area it could be competitive by the end of the decade.
Thirty-Second District (Kenny Merchant, Pete Sessions and Jeb Hensarling)
North Dallas
McCain 53.8-46.2
George W. Bush lives here too, so we could rename this the Death Star district for its abundance of Republican elected officials. Still, it's slowly trending away from Republicans, so it's another candidate to be competitive by the end of the decade. But Dallas's political culture will be tough to change.
Thirty-Third District (Gene Green)
Latino Houston
Obama 56.3-43.7
VAP: 56.2% Latino, 15.7% AA
I wonder if a Court would consider this cracking the Latino community, so the 33rd could end up being a Republican Houston-area district. But this way Latinos have two chances to elect their own congressman in Harris County.
Thirty-Fourth District (no incumbent)
Latino Metroplex
Obama 59.8-40.2
VAP: 60% Latino, 10.9% AA
If Republicans had only included this district in their plan, a judge might not be forced to redraw it. But now DFW area Latinos get to choose their own representative.
Thirty-Fifth District (no incumbent)
South Bexar County
Obama 61.1-38.9
VAP: 61.1% Latino, 10.4% AA
Again, Charlie Gonzalez might move here for a safer district. This map shows that you can have two 60%+ Latino districts entirely within Bexar County without hurting the 23rd.
Thirty-Sixth District (Michael McCaul)
Austin Suburbs
Obama 50.2-49.8
Obama beat McCain here by 1300 votes. It should lean Republican for now, but the Austin area is not getting any redder. McCaul probably follows the 10th to Houston under this map.
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The final count I have under this map is 20 safe Republican districts (districts that voted for McCain), 8 safe Democratic districts (districts that went at least 59% for Obama) and 8 in between where Democrats will depend on either a) large minority turnouts or b) the continued blueing of the suburbs. Right now the delegation is 23-9; this map would be R+1/D+3 if the parties split the swing districts, but could be as much as R-3/D+7 or R+5/D-1.