I know that a lot of people feel that Obama caved. I predicted several weeks ago, that this couldn't end any other way. President Obama "caving" was going to be key to any deal.
Had the President announced this deal several weeks ago after negotiating with John Boehner, this would have been flatly rejected by the Republican Party. All of the shenanigans that have gone on these past few weeks have been necessary to get House Republicans into a position where they feel like they can vote for this deal.
Which brings me to an essential point about this debt ceiling fight. Most people think this Debt Ceiling was seized on as sheer opportunism for them to force their agenda onto Democrats. In truth, they were terrified of this vote.
After all the shit Republicans talked during campaign season, they had built their tea party supporters expectations up sky high. Had they simply voted for a clean debt ceiling raise, virtually every last Republican could have expected a primary challenge from their right in 2012.
The only way Republicans in the House could possibly support raising the Debt Ceiling was if it was on terms that could credibly be sold as a defeat for Obama. In that sense, Obama was holding the ultimate bargaining chip.
It first occurred to me how this would play out right after Mitch McConnell announced his plan back on July 12th. I posted this comment:
Here's how I expect to play out: (3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:alkatt, mallyroyal, Cedwyn
1. Sometime in the next 48 hours, Obama is going to firmly reject this plan, because he doesn't want to kick the deficit can down the road any further.
2. Obama will engage in about 2 or 3 days frantic negotiations for a grand bargain.
3. When it becomes clear he can't get his bargain, he will fold and accept the McConnell plan, because we all know Obama always caves.
4. It will be reported and lamented on liberal blogs, that once again, Obama will have been bested in negotiations by the wily Republicans.
5. Some observers will note that they hear giggling coming from the briar patch that the President was thrown into.
"Hope 2010 feels a lot different than Hope 2008. Tougher, deeper, more dearly bought." Femlaw, Hope 2010, September 8, 2010.
by seanwright on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 06:10:38 PM EDT
Clearly, I engaged in a little wishful thinking about how quickly and cleanly this would all happen, but the framework above is basically correct.
The key to understanding the behavior of most, if not all of the Republican behavior during this whole debt ceiling debate, is to understand that they did not view the vote to raise the debt ceiling as a wonderful opportunity to work their will. They viewed it as a horrible crisis to be dealt with.
Everything that has transpired from at least July 12th on, has been a complete charade designed to make it possible for John Boehner to raise the debt ceiling.
As has been accurately noted many times in many places, especially but not exclusively, by tea party types the only real cuts are the ones scheduled to happen in 2012 and those amount to between $21 and $22 Billion Dollars, which will reduce GDP in 2012 by approximately 0.1 percent. Obviously, not helpful, but only marginally negative.
I've seen it said several places that the President should have used the 14th Amendment argument or the jumbo platinum coin argument as a club to beat the Republicans into submission. But that thinking stems from the basic misunderstanding about Republican motivation I referred to above. If the President had held those up as credible options, the Republicans would have seen them as escape hatches, not threats.
Republicans just took a serious pummeling and then, after beating them black and blue, Obama took a dive, just like Matt Taibbi said, but not for the reasons Taibbi suggests.
Many more such victories and the Republicans will be undone.