Yeah, I'm serious.
I mentioned this at the end of my last diary, but I think it bears repeating: I'm not donating to Obama for his reelection, and I'd encourage you to consider the same.
Here's why:
Frankly, he doesn't need it.
Obama may or may not face a tough reelection campaign - a lot depends on how the Republican primaries go down, what the economy/job prospects look like, and how voters are feeling next November - but one area where he will certainly not be hurting is fundraising. Any doubts should have been put to rest by his second quarter, where he easily stomped the entire Republican field, combined.
Granted, it's not going to remain this easy for long: as soon as the Republicans make their choices and the big money donors start targeting their 'expenditures', Obama won't be running away from the competition so easily. But my paltry donations are a useless drop in the bucket, especially when...
We desperately need to take back the House
25. That's the magic number of seats we need to return Pelosi to her position as Speaker of the House. It's a lot of seats, but it's going to be close in a race where, if things continue, voters from both parties will be dispirited with the state of events. One of the reasons we were beaten so badly in 2010 was that Democrats across-the-board received about a 5% drop in support, which killed us in districts where the margin of victory is typically >5%. Republicans can't rely on that boost again, with their own numbers tanking the same way.
Here's the bottom line, as it relates to the diary: your donation, or your volunteer time, or whatever your commitment may be, goes a lot further in a House race than the Presidency. And don't wait until November 2012 to commit, because if you don't want to be stuck with a conservative Democrat running against a Republican, you have to be involved and invested before the primary stage. If after the primary you're stuck with a conservative Democrat, hold your nose and think "This is for Speaker Pelosi. This is for Speaker Pelosi."
If you're in a very safe D district, find one that isn't. This should be out top priority going into the next election.
We also need to preserve the Senate
Reid's come under a lot of criticism as majority leader, but I have nightmares that we'll wake up in January 13 with a Majority Leader McConnell. Fortunately the Republicans wouldn't likely to rout the Senate with a supermajority (and watch how "filibuster reform" becomes a Republican issue, natch), but the ML's power over what happens in the chamber is enormous.
For what it's worth, Intrade considers it probable that Republicans end up with both chambers, with the Senate control more likely than the House. Naturally it's way too early to make predictions, and it's doubly unclear how this past week's mess will affect the numbers, etc. A lot of time between now and November. But what's clear is that we have to start working yesterday.
Why post this here?
Rhetorical question, but I needed to segue to this issue somehow: because there are areas where the blogs are stronger and areas where we are weaker. We don't influence the conversation as much as we'd like to think. We rarely do original journalism, and while a few of our analyses manage to break into mainstream conversation, it's really not where the strength of this site has been over the years.
Targeted fundraising and organization can be a strong point, though. Whatever one thinks about how the Namont election played out, there's no doubt that laser focus turned what could have been a non-event (the defeat of a nameless candidate by an old hand) into an upset.
First, we should all keep up with Daily Kos Elections, if we aren't already. While redistricting dramas are playing out across the nation, David Nir has been keeping track of polling for just about every corner of the country. If you're in a safe district looking for another district to "adopt", that's the perfect place to find one.
Second, once the elections are in full swing, find your district (not necessarily the one you live in) and stick with it. Money, volunteer time, whatever you can manage. If you can't do either, then spread the word here and wherever else you can, encouraging other people to step up. We need to rebuild brick by brick by brick.
Finally, this should be our m.o. moving forward no matter how one feels about the Obama administration. Let it be fueled by political animosity, pragmatic considerations, budget and time limitations, passionate engagement, or whatever.
I'm in. Are you?
Update: of course the always-fabulous Got a Grip beat me to it in a diary posted mid-July. Show her some love!