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Senate:

AZ-Sen: Wealthy investment manager Wil Cardon tells Dave Catanese he plans to challenge Rep. Jeff Flake for the GOP nomination and promises that he'll out-spend the congressman, too.

CT-Sen: Jason McCoy, the Republican mayor of the town of Vernon (previously mentioned here), says he'll decide whether to seek the Republican nomination for Senate by the end of this month.

MA-Sen: New Bedford Mayor Scott Lang, who has said he won't seek a fourth term this fall, says of the Senate race: "I'm certainly not going to rule out running for office, but that is not something I will think about until after I'm done being mayor." Lang, a Democrat, leaves office this January.

NM-Sen: The Sierra Club's first endorsement of the 2012 elections goes to Rep. Martin Heinrich, who is facing state Auditor Hector Balderas in the Democratic primary.

PA-Sen: Remember Steve Welch from PA-06 last year? He's back! In pog form! Well, actually, in PA-Sen form — maybe. Dan Hirschhorn says that Welch, who abandoned a run for the House last year after Rep. Jim Gerlach dropped down from the governor's race to seek re-election instead, met with the NRSC in DC last week, and other sources say he's considering the race. But Welch, who has personal wealth he could bring to the race, isn't commenting.

Gubernatorial:

FL-Gov: Cue the Rick Scott comeback narrative! Quinnipiac finds the Republican governor's approval ratings moving up from an atrocious low of 29-57 in May to a slightly-less-atrocious 35-52. Who knows where these numbers will head in the future, but this is a good occasions to remind folks of the obvious: that early polling can and often does bear little resemblance to final election results.

MO-Gov: Hahah, man. This story about GOP Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder is just too good to summarize, especially the absolutely flailing response from his campaign spokesman. You're going to have to click through, but to entice you, let me just say it involves "pantless parties."

MT-Gov: A line from an in-depth interview of 75-year-old Republican-turned-kinda-sorta-Democrat Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger, by Charles Johnson of the Billings Gazette: "At one point during the interview, Bohlinger almost seemed to concede the impracticality of his running for governor by acknowledging he could still play a role outside elective office in the future."

House:

AR-02: Roll Call's Joshua Miller reports that former Dem Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, whose name has consistently come up on the usual lists, is considering a run against freshman Tim Griffin — and Halter's spokesman didn't deny it. Miller also says that DCCC recruiting chair Allyson Schwartz was in Arkansas last week on a trip to talk to possible candidates, but no word as to whether she met with Halter.

CA-26: We mentioned David Pollock's entry into the possibly-open 26th CD race last week, but several other Democrats are also looking at the race: Ventura County Supervisor Steve Bennett, former Ventura City Councilman Richard Francis, and Oxnard Harbor District Commissioner Mary Anne Rooney

CA-30: Rep. Brad Sherman is very, very serious about his intention to seek re-election in the new West San Fernando Valley-based 30th CD, rather than light out for Ventura County. Writes Timm Herdt in the Ventura County Starr:

Sherman, whose district during the 1990s included Thousand Oaks, said he knows of only one person who has suggested that he make such a move.

"Howard Berman has indicated his preference that I not run in Congressional District 30," Sherman said. "He has pointed out that there is an open seat in Seattle, one in Eureka and one in Ventura County. That's three seats where I could go to take up surfing, but I'm not interested in taking up surfing."

Sherman added that he's made some similar suggestions to Berman, but I suspect they've been equally well-received… though perhaps Berman is giving things a second thought. Sherman has an insane amount of cash in the bank ($3.7 million) and has already rolled out a list of endorsers, including Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom. (BTW, you might wanna think about spending some of that scrilla on a nicer website, dude.)

NC-08: Rep. Larry Kissell's 2010 opponent, sportscaster Harold Johnson, says he will "probably not" try again this cycle.

NV-02: Kate Marshall finally has an ad out attacking her Republican opponent, Mark Amodei, for saying nice things about the Ryan Medicare plan, though I'm not super-impressed with this ad. I guess this whole "raised our taxes" line must poll well, because her media team insisted on including it twice in this spot (you can watch it at the link). But I really think Kathy Hochul's ads focusing on entitlements with laser-like intensity had greater emotional impact.

WA-01: Just when you thought this Kucinich stuff couldn't become any more implausible, well… at that Seattle labor gathering we mentioned the other day, Special K received a particularly warm welcome, and it sounds like at least some union organizers would like to see him run. The linked article mentions Kucinich has taken a vocal stance on a complaint before the NLRB which alleges local giant Boeing moved a plant to South Carolina to punish Washington unions — an issue which the state's congressional delegation has taken a more muted position on.

WA-03: Clark County Commissioner Steve Stuart, a Democrat, says he's "watching and evaluating" a possible run against GOP freshman Jamie Herrera Beutler.

WV-01: Former state Sen. Mike Oliverio, who beat incumbent Rep. Alan Mollohan in the Democratic primary last year only to lose the general election to David McKinley, isn't ruling out another run — and was seen hanging out at the state capitol building all week, while his former colleagues in the legislature deal with redistricting (see bullet below).

Other Races:

OH HB194: A group called Fair Elections Ohio is trying to get Ohio's newly-passed voter ID law restricting early voting (and limiting the franchise in other ways) on the ballot for a possible repeal in 2012. First the group needs to get their petition approved by the state AG and SoS, then they have until Sept. 29 to collect 231,000 signatures. (This whole process may sound a bit familiar, since you probably know about the effort to repeal the anti-collective bargaining bill called SB5, which will go before voters this November.)

Special Elections: Two races tomorrow — apart from the Wisconsin recalls, of course — courtesy Johnny Longtorso:

New Hampshire House, Strafford 3 District: Open Republican seat, candidates are former State Rep. Robert Perry for the Democrats, engineer Honey Puterbaugh for the Republicans, and independent Ross McNamara. It's a pretty closely divided district, having gone 53-46 for Obama in 2008 and 52-45 for Lynch in 2010. The district elected an 8-0 Democratic delegation in 2006, a 6-2 Democratic delegation in 2008, and an 8-0 Republican delegation in 2010.

Wisconsin AD-48: This one's just a formality; Democrat Chris Taylor is unopposed.

Grab Bag:

Trivia: Here's a trivia question — and I don't know the answer myself, so I'm curious to see what you come up with. Whenever a wave year is brewing, some folks in the about-to-get-swept-under party insist that it's really an "anti-incumbent year" and that both parties are vulnerable. Has this ever actually been true? To make this question more discrete, has there ever been an election where, say, more than 10 Democratic incumbents and more than 10 Republican incumbents in the House all lost in the same year? How about 15 and 15? And in the Senate, four and four? Six and six? (These are arbitrary thresholds, but you have to set a baseline somewhere.) I ask because the topic is coming up again (see this Ron Brownstein piece), and with 2012 shaping up to be very weird, who knows? The unlikely might just happen.

Redistricting Roundup:

ME Redistricting: GOP Gov. Paul LePage will convene the legislature for a special session to take up congressional redistricting on Sept. 27. As you'll recall, Maine used to conduct its remapping in years ending in "3," but a recent lawsuit was successful in forcing the state to undertake redistricting when everyone else in the nation does it — i.e., right after the Census Bureau releases its population data. According to the linked article, the lege doesn't have much time under this schedule — they need to finish by Sept. 30, or else the courts will intervene. Anyhow, The goal for the Republican-held lege will likely be to undermine Dem Rep. Mike Michaud as much as possible.

NY Redistricting: It sounds like something out of The Onion, but this Albany Times Union piece could just as easily been titled: "Legislature Agrees to Follow Law Passed by Legislature." More specifically, the legislature's redistricting task force (known as LATFOR) says it will respect a law passed last year which requires map-makers to count prisoners as residents of the places they hail from, not where they are currently incarcerated. Republicans (who benefitted from the old system) have filed a lawsuit against the new law, and allegedly there were some issues with data from the Dept. of Corrections, but doughty LATFOR says it will persevere.

WV Redistricting: It sounds like the Dem-held state legislature has utterly wimped out. Bold plans to combine GOP Reps. David McKinley and Shelley Moore Capito into a single district and give Democrats a chance to re-take one or both seats were shelved in favor of a map that makes the absolute smallest adjustment possible. State Senate Majority Leader John Unger, the architect of the aggressive map, seems to have lost control of the process, but he still thinks the minimum-change map currently advancing through the lege will be subject to suit on population equality grounds. (It refuses to split counties, so the deviation is almost 2,500 people. In Iowa, which also doesn't split counties, the deviation was something like 76.) Democrats will still likely target McKinley's WV-01, and if there's one upside, it's that making Capito's district too hostile could have pushed her into a run for Senate or governor instead.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Ralph Nader (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG

    He's said that he's almost certain to primary President Obama, because he doesn't think he's done enough to harm Democrats at the ballot box in recent years.

    Anyway, couldn't the new Florida law on party affiliation bar him from running as a Democrat if it's upheld by the courts (I'm still guessing it's not, but it's a fun question).

    NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

    by Bobby Big Wheel on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 06:16:47 AM PDT

  •  Qpac says Scott improving (5+ / 0-)

    among those you would expect to support him, men and Republicans. So to some degree, he seems to be shoring up his base. For example, his approval rating among Republicans was a horrible 51% last time, now it's 61%.

    It didnt seem like Scott was really in the news recently, and that probably helps.

  •  I'm not sure about the Trivia (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits

    Both parties being vulnerable in a wave year?

    If you look at least year, I'd say that that statement is true to some extent.
    While the Democratic party as a whole was certainly vulnerable, the moderate wing of the GOP was also vulnerable.
    Thats why "RINOs" like Bob Bennet, Mike Castle and Bob Inglis got swept out.

    Progressive Dixiecrat. 19, LSU student, NC resident

    by MilesC on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 06:21:21 AM PDT

    •  The numbers weren't remotely comparable (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      and the defeat of relatively moderate Republicans in primaries was part of a right-wing wave. So I don't see it as being "true to some extent" last year.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 07:03:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  both sides losing 10 seats (3+ / 0-)

      I could see that happening in a year ending in 2 if a lot of states end up with very different maps, but a slew of redistricting-driven incumbent losses is not the same thing as an anti-incumbent wave.

      SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 08:39:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  bennet and inglis (0+ / 0-)

      aren't moderates. inglis was probably in the conservative half of the gop caucus

      18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 05:31:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They were (0+ / 0-)

        sane but reliably conservative Republicans. However, they weren't extremists or inflexible, and that made them anathema to the Tea Party.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Tue Aug 09, 2011 at 03:40:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  agreed, their attitudes were the biggest (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          thing that made the teabaggers hate them, BUT it's not as if there was nothing they hate in their voting record. I believe both voted for TARP, and Bennett has voted for a fair number of Democratic bills (eg stem cell research) and I believe Inglis was an opponent of the Iraq war surge.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Tue Aug 09, 2011 at 04:45:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  PPP (11+ / 0-)

    Hey David, are the PPP results from the Wisconsin recalls going to be released today. I may have actually lost some sleep last night in anticipation.

  •  Along the lines of that trivia, I think (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    someone pointed out the last time a party lost the White House, but won the House, was 1848. Democrats won the House, but Whig candidate Zachary Taylor became president. But in that case, the incumbent president, Dem James Polk, wasnt on the ballot.

    There was some speculation that could happen next year, if the anti-incumbent feeling affects both the WH and the House GOP.

  •  Correction (5+ / 0-)
    Bedford, a Democrat, leaves office this January.

    I'm guessing that's supposed to be Lang, unless New Bedford requires its mayors to rename themselves after the city.

    Also, I find it interesting that Peter Kinder's deer-in-the-headlights spokesman is named Jay Eastlick. Reminds me of 2008 Dem IL-10 candidate Jay Footlik. What is it with Jays and licking?

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 06:37:55 AM PDT

    •  Kinder (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      At some point, won't the GOP force him out of the race?  Maybe get one of the Senate contenders to jump into that race instead? Otherwise there could be a repeat of the Colorado governor's race last year where a Some Dude who thinks bikes are part of a plot by the Illuminati becomes the nominee.

      NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

      by Bobby Big Wheel on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 07:00:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Perry team raising money, supporter says (6+ / 0-)

    announcement next week

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    •  Barring a major gaffe or scandal, (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, lgmcp, itskevin, jncca

      I think if Perry gets in the race, he is the nominee.

      •  What would a gaffe consist of (12+ / 0-)

        in the Republican Party? Because from where I stand, he's already given plenty of material for ads in any potential general election. But Republicans nowadays like the idea of people "explaining" why people contemplate secession. Lincoln rolls over in his grave every day.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 07:06:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Before we make too many predictions. (4+ / 0-)

        I would've said the same about Pawlenty during his boomlet in the spring.

        In particular late entering candidates never look better than the day before they enter.  It's all downhill from there once the "grass is always greener on the otherside" folks see an actual candidate rather than a possibility who may seem more exciting than those who are already slugging it out.

        A divided fracturered right may just play into the hands of Romney.  Particularly if both Bachmann and Perry enter April and the winner take all states with neither being in position to claim to be the anti-Romney.  And the map could benefit Romney.  If only a plurality is needed to win Romney could have an advantage in many states where he'd only need 40 or perhaps even less.  And large Northeastern states that should be friendly towards him such as Pennsylvvania, New Jersey, and New York are post April.  Whereas Texas will be an early proportional representation state.  Course pro-Romney Michigan will not only be proportional representation but may end up losing half it's delegates as it tries to get ahead earlier than it's supposed to.

        •  My view (5+ / 0-)

          I dont think you can really compare Pawlenty and Perry. Pawlenty is a pretty bland, boring candidate. Perry, otoh, does have charisma, appeal, a connection to voters. Texas is the model for conservative economic policy, and he has been governor for a decade. I think that beats Romney's economic record. Perry also is as socially conservative as Bachmann, but he seems more folksy and friendly than her. I think it's quite likely he takes a lot of her voters. He also has more executive experience than both of them. I find it tough to see how either of them runs against Perry effectively, again, barring a gaffe or scandal.  

          I wouldnt assume the Northeastern states are Romney-friendly. There were a couple of polls showing NJ and PA, very close, with Bachmann actually leading in PA, I believe, although both had a huge amount of undecideds. Also, I dont think it really matters when Texas has their primary, I imagine Perry running takes it off the table if he is still in the race. Also, I dont see a three way race into April. It will likely be Romney vs Perry or Bachmann.

          In all, I think Perry has positioned himself well to win. There is a lot of excitement around his campaign, he polls well, but doesnt have the pressure of a front runner. Romney's campaign hasnt really taken off, and Perry will be running right when voters are starting to pay attention. His fundraising numbers for 3Q will be key.

          •  Perry also has not been vetted... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, MichaelNY

            ...to the same extent that the other candidates in the race have been.  Which actually why being bland and boring is not necessarily a bad thing.  I don't find Perry to be any more or less charismatic than Romney or Bachmann or the rest of the field for that matter.

            I also can easily see a scenario where Bachmann wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire, and Perry wins South Carolina.  And Paul will stay in to the end getting his 10 to 15 percent a good portion of which would vote for anyone over Romney.

            Romney is capable of losing the northeastern states one-on-one.   Hell.  Look at Palladino winning the Republican primary in New York.  But Romney can win pluralities.  And if both Perry AND Bachmann can stay well financed into April that may be all he needs.

            Let's also not forget that Romney's problem is the perception that he's insincere rather than political apostacy.  If he continues to poll better than the rest of the field there may be a much lower barrier for conservatives to fall in line than we're assuming.

      •  It's going to be such a strange primary (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        for the GOP. It's the first time they've had proportional delegates in their primary. I think it is way too early to see how this plays out. I still think we may see Bachmann take the nomination.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 09:37:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Maybe, but I dont see a three way race (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, askew

          very late in the campaign. The Dem race in 2008 was proportional delegates, and it got down to Obama and Clinton pretty quick. I think someone, likely Bachmann, probably drops out after the first set of primaries/caucuses.

          •  I think the difference between Dems in 2008 (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, MichaelNY

            and the GOP in 2012 is that Edwards had to win in Iowa to have a realistic shot. He didn't have the bankroll to compete with Obama and Clinton without that win. Bachmann can finish a close 2nd in Iowa and then win South Carolina. She has serious backing from tea party groups.

            I actually think it could turn into a Perry vs. Bachmann race pretty easily if Romney underperforms in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

            President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

            by askew on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 04:28:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  PS. Also, the weaker Obama seems, (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, askew, jncca

          the more likely the Republican electorate will be to turn off the electability argument, which will hurt Romney.

          Having said that, I think Romney's past positions and statements are enough to do him in. If I were a Republican, I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him.

          •  i'm a democrat (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            and i still don't trust him as far as i can throw him.

            18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 05:37:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I think it could be just the opposite (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Your scenario is plausible, but it's just as plausible to me that the more vulnerable Obama seems, the more likely Republicans decide they don't want to blow it and hold their noses and go with Romney.  The general election trial heats are a major boon to him, they're practically in clear-the-field territory, if it weren't for the fact Republicans don't really like him much.

            On the flip side, if Obama gets stronger, I can see Republicans deciding to throw caution to the wind and take a flyer on someone more dubious like Perry or Bachmann.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 07:10:56 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Extra points for the... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir

    Simpsons reference (pog form).

    "I was so easy to defeat, I was so easy to control, I didn't even know there was a war." -9.75, -8.41

    by RonV on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 06:44:22 AM PDT

  •  Tomorrow's the day that we start taking (5+ / 0-)

    democracy back. ON WISCONSIN! GOTV, Badgers! Your nation needs you. We're counting on you.

    The Republican motto: "There's been a lot of progress in this country over the last 75 years, and we've been against all of it."

    by Hillbilly Dem on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 06:44:24 AM PDT

  •  Wis. Dem memo: Victory predictions "dangerous" (6+ / 0-)

    be cautiously optimistic

    http://www.politico.com/...

  •  NM-Sen (8+ / 0-)

    Swiftboat funders from Texas have long had a proprietary interest in Albuquerque & NM.  They spent plenty of money in the 2008 race trying to paint Heinrich with the brush of "palling around with terrorists."

    Say what?

    Thing is, he worked for state land trustee, and in that capacity had some dealings with Dave Foreman, a wilderness advocate.  Thing is, Foreman was a founder of Earth First! some years earlier, and did some jail time for some sort of monkeywrenching activity.  Dave paid his debt to society, and has kept his behavior within the law ever since.  Wilderness advocates deal with those responsible for the stewardship of public lands, including state lands.

    And so, Heinrich is either a terrorist-sympathizer or someone with a good record on the environment.  The Sierra Club, being not devoid of sense, has gone with the latter.  Heinrich's track record is good on the environment.

    The river always wins. (Mark Twain)

    by Land of Enchantment on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 06:50:58 AM PDT

  •  Small typo (0+ / 0-)
    Bedford, a Democrat,

    Single Payer Single Payer Single Payer Single Payer Single Payer Single Payer Single Payer

    by CalbraithRodgers on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 06:53:47 AM PDT

  •  This Day In Election History (11+ / 0-)

    Five years ago today was the Democratic primary in Connecticut for the United States Senate.  I believe some folks here were interested in that.

  •  The Voter ID bill in Ohio did not pass... (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, TofG, atdnext, redrelic17, askew, itskevin

    The OH Senate and SoS were vehemently against it and is considered dead for the session.  The bill in question reduced early voting hours and absentee ballot mailouts, but did not change ID requirements.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 07:00:47 AM PDT

  •  NY redistricting (4+ / 0-)

    sounds like it was crafted by writers at the onion because the NY legislature seems like IT was created by the Onion

    "Orwell was an optimist"

    by KnotIookin on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 07:14:04 AM PDT

  •  WA-03 (5+ / 0-)

    Run Steve, Run!

    I cannot think of a Democrat more in tune with the district than Steve Stuart.  The downside here is that we don't know the outcome of the redistricting plan until the end of the year, so that explains the "watching and evaluating" comment.

    Jaime Herrera-Beutler has been a complete and utter failure full of mindless GOP talking points.  She's not a representative, but an empty vessel for Koch-fueled ideology.  She's eminently beatable.

    •  The district will probably get more red (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, jncca

      Washington gained a district, so one of the Western Washington district is going to have to cross the Cascades.  

      It's possible the 8th will expand across Snoqualmie Pass, making Reichert safer, but I suspect the commission will opt to follow the Columbia River instead, giving Herrera some of the farm country in the Yakima Valley.

      •  Yakima (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Marcus Graly

        I've seen this rumor tossed out before, and if so, you can write off the 3rd forever.

        We have nothing in common geographically, socially, economically, or politically with Yakima Valley.  The 3rd has always encompassed portions of the SW Washington coastline, so to lose that would be pretty strange.

        But once again, the powers that be in the Puget Sound feel it necessary to consign our swing district into a perma-red status.  

        I may just have to move across the river to Oregon and call it a day at that point.  Living in a region peripheral to the state's power brokers has its limitations.

  •  NV-02: I know this may not be popular here... (11+ / 0-)

    In Kos-land, especially after all the weekend pie fights over Alan Grayson's ideology, but there's a reason why Kate Marshall is hammering Mark Amodei on taxes.

    There are 30,490 fewer registered Democrats in the district than Republicans, and that gap must be narrowed if Kate Marshall is to win.  That bears repeating: team Marshall and the state party must register more Democrats and get them all to the polls.  She is also going to have to win non-partisan swing voters.  There are just over 60,000 non-affiliated voters in Nevada’s far open spaces who apparently will vote their minds, but Jill Derby could not win enough of them.  In the 2008 race, Heller won 52% of the vote, or 170,610 votes, and Democrat Derby won 41%, or 136,313 votes.  Derby has rural Nevada routes and is smart.  Kate Marshall has called Nevada home for a dozen years and is smart and ambitious.  I am interested to see how she’ll do in Elko and Eureka, places where she must win swing votes.

    Long story short, Kate Marshall must do something different than her predecessors in order to capture this seat.  Republican Mark Amodei’s support for the Ryan budget and unpopular Medicare “solutions” may help weaken the Heller clone Amodei, but northern Nevada is not suburban Buffalo, by a long shot.

    Kate Marshall can't just run as another Kathy Hochul because Marshall isn't running in the Buffalo suburbs. Rather, she has to run up the margin in moderate Washoe County, then cut down Amodei's margin in the rural "cow counties", where libertarian ideals are still held high (even if they really aren't practiced that much these days). And with Amodei's many past flip-flops on taxes (supporting tax deals in The Legislature, but spouting off teabagger nonsense now), she has a unique opportunity to raise doubts of Amodei's ideological purity among hard core Elko conservatives AND make Reno moderates think twice about supporting someone so close to the "tea party". The Elko conservatives probably won't ever support Marshall for anything, but they might cast protest votes against Amodei while those Reno moderates flip the final coin for Marshall.

    In a race where Kate Marshall has to bridge a 30,000+ vote gap, she has to get creative in building one.

    •  counting on protest votes (0+ / 0-)

      Does not sound like a winning strategy. Running up the margin in Washoe is the way to do this. If she can break even in Carson City and Mineral County while winning Washoe by 15, she should be in at least fair shape. Barring a 15 point gap in Washoe, it doesn't matter if she holds Amodei to only a 2:1 margin in Elko, she will lose. Efforts should be doubled in the western part of the district, imo

      •  But that's often a mistake... (3+ / 0-)

        Made by Democrats in the recent past.

        it doesn't matter if she holds Amodei to only a 2:1 margin in Elko

        It actually can make a difference, and it most recently did last November. Marshall wouldn't still be our State Treasurer and Harry Reid wouldn't still be our US Senator if they had ignored Elko. Elko and the other rural counties may not be very populous, but those counties vote regularly and vote often, so they actually have outsized influence compared to us "slackers" in Clark County who don't vote as often.

        The winning formula of any Democrat running statewide consists of:

        - Running up the Dem margin in Clark, preferably well over 10%.
        - Winning Washoe
        - Holding down the GOP margin in the rurals, preferably under 40% in Elko and 20% in Nye.

        And again, because Marshall can't count on most of Clark County this time, the rurals will play an even bigger role in her fate this year.

    •  This is one I'm watching very closely (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext

      my assumption is that internal polling is showing an Amodei lead but not a big one based on the way republicans are spending there. In addition, I feel as though Kate Marshall really has to run up the margins in Washoe potentially getting over 60% there and running up the margins in the Clark county portion. She will also likely need to win Carson city and Mineral and try to not get killed in all those rural counties which seem to have a voting pattern that resembles Idaho or Utah. Since there are two third party candidates and none of the above, Kate Marshall could win this with 48% which is much easier to get to there then 50%.

    •  I think to make the bolded point more convincing (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      andgarden, redrelic17, jncca

      You need to explain a little more about what the difference is, exactly, between NV-02 and NY-26.  On paper, NV-02 is R+5 and NY-26 is R+6.  So the registration gap has not, in general, made NV-02 a tougher climb than NY-26 on a Presidential level.  So what's different about them on a Congressional level?  Maybe the point is made by implication and I don't know enough about the two districts to see it.  

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 08:26:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  PVIs from Wiki (eom) (0+ / 0-)

        25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 08:29:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The difference lies in the territory covered... (4+ / 0-)

        And in the nature of local Republican politics. After all, Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle wasn't just created in some Koch Industries laboratory. Rather, she worked her way up through a rural school board. This was the epicenter of "The Sagebrush Rebellion" of the 1970s, and this was where nuclear weapons testing occurred. This is the place that's simultaneously most dependent upon the federal government AND most distrustful of the federal government.

        The political similarities between NV-02 and NY-26 really end on paper. Because so much gaming, mining, and ----ing (brothels) happen there, folks aren't used to having to pay taxes for basic government services like people in Niagara Falls are. Even Washoe County can get weird over "the t word", as they and the rurals have become accustomed to Las Vegas casinos paying the bulk of their bills. So what worked for Kathy Hochul may not work 100% for Kate Marshall, as Marshall has to deal with Northern Nevada's unruly "libertarian streak". And since most of Clark County isn't in the district (and the portions that are either have low turnout or a bunch of conservative seniors), what happens here can't really work in her favor. She has to walk a fine line of winning seniors with Medicare, tossing enough "blue meat" to turn out the base en masse, and finessing "the t word" nicely enough to avoid getting slaughtered in the rurals and Washoe exurbs.

    •  It has nothing to do (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      With my personal preferences. In fact, if you go back a few digests, you'll see I specifically praised Marshall for her first attack ad that was devoted solely to tax hikes.

      It's simply a question of mixing up the message in the same spot. Tax hikes and eliminating Medicare are pretty different topics, and I think you risk diluting your message when you try to cram both into 30-second spots. I just think she should run separate ads on each, that's all.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 08:48:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  1976 Senate elections (5+ / 0-)
    Almost half of the seats being decided in this election changed parties, but Carter's narrow victory did not produce decisive gains for the Democrats, and the balance of the chamber remained the same.
    Democrats took open seats in Arizona, Hawaii, Nebraska, and defeated incumbents John Glenn Beall, Jr. of Maryland, James L. Buckley of New York's Conservative Party, Robert Taft, Jr. of Ohio, and Bill Brock of Tennessee. Republicans took open seats in Missouri and Rhode Island, and defeated five incumbents: John V. Tunney of California, Vance Hartke of Indiana, Joseph Montoya of New Mexico, Frank Moss of Utah, and Gale McGee of Wyoming.

    So that's three and three, at least.  
    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 08:22:59 AM PDT

  •  PPP tweeted that Obama looks good in CO (8+ / 0-)

    match-up.

    Obama doing pretty well in head to heads in Colorado. CO and Virginia looking like 2 states that might keep him over 270

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 09:40:29 AM PDT

  •  Former SOS, Guv, and Senator Mark Hatfield passed (6+ / 0-)

    yesterday.  He was one of the last decent Republicans here in Oregon.  He was instrumental in passing Oregon's Public Accommodations Act, which was landmark civil rights legislation, in the early '50s, and in the creation of the community college system here in the state.

    "every time we start a pie fight a wingnut gets his wings"- MinistryofTruth -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 09:47:11 AM PDT

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