Hi, everyone. This time, I went further outside my comfort zone and redistricted my home of New Jersey as a commission might do it. New Jersey has a bipartisan redistricting commission that usually ends up in an incumbent protection map. However, this year New Jersey is losing a seat and Republican Congressman Leonard Lance is likely the one to go.
New Jersey's commission is composed of 6 Democrats, 6 Republicans, and almost always requires a court-appointed tiebreaker. All 12 partisan commissioners are chosen by the state party so it's much more partisan than the commission in California. For this round, the tiebreaker is John Farmer, Jr. He was the Attorney-General under former Governor Christine Whitman and was legal counsel to Alan Rosenthal when Rosenthal served as the tiebreaker during state legislative redistricting this year. Rosenthal opted out for this round because he probably got bullied by the Republicans and by Christie personally to accept their map (which would give Republicans an even chance of taking the legislature). He instead chose the Democrats' map, and Christie cut funding to his Rutgers fellowship project. It's a shame since Rosenthal is one of the greatest minds of redistricting out there.
My hunch tells me the Republicans will try for a 6 Dem-6 GOP split in their proposed map, but I don't think that would fly. It doesn't reflect New Jersey consistently Democratic lean on the federal scale as well as mine does.
Anywho, I shall draw what the commission could end up drawing, a 7 Dem-5 GOP (possibly even 7 Dem-4 GOP-1 Tossup) map. I protected Pallone's district and removed Lance's disritct. NJ-13 is the new NJ-07. I also fixed one of the problems with the current map. On the current map, Congressman Albio Sires' district is merely plurality Hispanic, a legal grey area but not strictly VRA-compliant. I have now made it majority Hispanic. Finally, all of my districts deviate from ideal population by no greater than double digits.
See my work below the fold.
For this, I was fortunate that generic partisan performance and Obama/McCain numbers were all in DRA. Saved me a lot of hassle.
Whole Map
North Jersey
South Jersey
Northeastern New Jersey
NJ-01 (blue): Democratic Congressman Robert Andrews' district now takes in Cherry Hill, all of Camden County, and is more aesthetically pleasing. It's now marginally less Democratic, but Andrews is teflon and this district is still D+12.
Obama/McCain: 64.6%/35.4%
Dem/Repub: 62.2%/37.8%
Deviation: +2
NJ-02 (green): Republican Frank LoBiondo sees little change except for his new branch into Ocean County. Slightly less Democratic, but still within reach once it is open. LoBiondo is like Dave Reichert, he throws the occassional bone at environmentalists and then backbenches so as not to be in anything controversial in Congress.
Obama/McCain: 53.4%/46.6%
Dem/Repub: 51.7%/48.3%
Deviation: -12
NJ-03 (dark magenta): Republican Jon Runyan loses some of Ocean County and picks up more of Burlington County, which makes more sense for him (since he lives in Burlington). This district becomes slightly more Democratic and moves from R+1 to EVEN.
Obama/McCain: 52.7%/47.3%
Dem/Repub: 50.1%/49.9%
Deviation: +32
NJ-04 (red): Republican Chris Smith loses the last of his Trenton precincts, keeps Lakewood, and takes in more of Ocean and Monmouth County. His district is slighly redder now.
Obama/McCain: 45.2%/54.8%
Dem/Repub: 43.6%/56.4%
Deviation: +19
NJ-05 (gold): Republican Scott Garett's seat takes in the more Republican part of Leonard Lance's district and is now even more Republican. It is probably now R+10, maybe 11.
Obama/McCain: 41.9%/58.1%
Dem/Repub: 39.3%/60.7%
Deviation: +47
NJ-06 (teal): Democrat Frank Pallone's district still stretches out to take his home in Long Branch, Monmouth County. He loses a bit of Monmouth and takes in a bit more of Middlesex County. His seat moves slightly more Democratic and is close to being D+10. Middlesex Democrats may still be angling to screw him over in redistricting and make NJ-06 totally Middlesex-centric, but that's yet to be seen. Pallone has quite a lot of seniority.
Obama/McCain: 61.7%/38.3%
Dem/Repub: 59.9%/40.1%
Deviation: -21
NJ-07 (dark grey): Cuban-born Democrat Albio Sires' district is now unquestionably under the auspices of the VRA. What is currently a 47.6% plurality Hispanic seat becomes 50.8% Hispanic. It's odd that, in New Jersey and New York, the Cuban-American community leans left.
Racial Stats (VAP/raw proportion): 50.8% Hispanic/53.5% Hispanic
Obama/McCain: 71.3%/28.7%
Dem/Repub: 71.7%/28.3%
Deviation: -11
NJ-08 (slate blue): Democrat Bill Pascrell's district sees little change.
Obama/McCain: 61.9%/38.1%
Dem/Repub: 60.8%/39.2%
Deviation: -41
NJ-09 (cyan): Democrat Steve Rothman is pushed a little northwards, but not much else.
Obama/McCain: 61.3%/38.7%
Dem/Repub: 61.9%/38.1%
Deviation: +19
NJ-10 (deep pink): Democrat Donald Payne's district had to take in a lot of white-majority area to make up for population loss, but is still majority African-American.
Racial Stats (VAP/raw proportion): 50.2% AA/51.3% AA
Obama/McCain: 84.5%/15.5%
Dem/Repub: 81.1%/18.9%
Deviation: +11
NJ-11 (chartreuse): Republican Rodney Frelinghuysen's district becomes something of a mess as it is pushed southwards slightly and takes in some of Lance's district. Slightly less Republican, but still out of reach for now.
Obama/McCain: 47%/53%
Dem/Repub: 43.6%/56.4%
Deviation: -15
NJ-12 (cornflower blue): Awesome Democrat (and my Congressman at college) Rush Holt's district now takes in all of Trenton and some of Lance's district. It is now a safe district for him. It also compacts some, no longer stretching out as far east.
Obama/McCain: 60%/40%
Dem/Repub: 55.1%/44.9%
Deviation: -32
That's all for now! I hope you admire this work of mine. This map is 7-5 in neutral and GOP years, but would be 7-4-1 in Dem years. Feel free to comment or critique in the comments section.