As an army of scientists debate whether fracking caused yesterday's Virginia quake (survey says it didn't), the larger issue with fracking remains its ongoing overall cost-benefit analysis. As a point of public policy, I feel like some kossacks are still on the fence about this. So I tipped the earthquake diary initially, not knowing how unscientific it was, because the earthquake aspect of fracking affects that cost benefit analysis, however slightly. Upon reviewing the responses from the considerable scientific community here, I removed my rec. But the worst costs of fracking are also much less scientifically controversial: methane gas contaminating our water tables, or even blowouts, such as this one in Pennsylvania last May, sending fracking fluid into the water table. Fracking fluid, its ingredients still concealed as "trade secrets", has already been shown to contain "toxins like benzene or 2-Butoxyethanol, commonly called 2-BE, a toxic solvent." The benefits? Supposedly, 100 year's worth of energy, according to the industry advertisements we've all seen on MSNBC.com between segments of our favorite cable news show. The reality: make that more like 20 years, tops. Because the US just reduced its projections by 80%. Bloomberg:
The U.S. will slash its estimate of undiscovered Marcellus Shale natural gas by as much as 80 percent after an updated assessment by government geologists.
The formation, which stretches from New York to Tennessee, contains about 84 trillion cubic feet of gas, the U.S. Geological Survey said today in its first update in nine years. That supersedes an Energy Department projection of 410 trillion cubic feet, said Philip Budzik, an operations research analyst with the Energy Information Administration.
(snip)
... “They’re geologists, we’re not. We’re going to be taking this number and using it in our model.”
This is great news for opponents of fracking. No longer will we have to hear those clearly trumped up "100 years of domestic energy" pipedreams between segments of the Rachel Maddow show. But it gets better. At a moment when
Eric Schneiderman is getting
shitcanned (and thus widely noticed and admired) for standing his ground on a 50 state task force investigating the origination and servicing practices of the nations 5 largest lending agencies, and refusing to back a weak,
Whitehouse-sponsored 20 billion dollar settlement with broad immunity provisions, it's good to see him vindicated by the USGs. Schneiderman, if you are not aware, is a big opponent of opening up New York to fracking. From the Bloomberg article:
Last week, Range Resources Corp. (RRC), Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. (COG) and Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (GDP) were subpoenaed by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman over whether they accurately represented the profitability of their natural-gas wells in the region, according to a person familiar with the matter. The subpoenas, sent Aug. 8, requested documents on formulas used to project how long the wells can produce gas without additional drilling using hydraulic fracturing, or fracking.
Now, we can't know whether Schneiderman's probe affected the USGS revised estimate. The answer is probably not. On the other hand, who knows? Other government agencies
like the EPA have been rather slyly shepherding the industry through the regulatory process, so perhaps this was in part a response to his strong investigation of the viability of fracking. But what this does show is that Schneiderman was right to go against the received political wisdom by investigating these regional gas companies' reporting methods, which in turn determine the political landscape around fracking. Perhaps he isn't wrong on the origination practices of the big 5 as well. Fracking, for those who aren't already aware, has been making a
major comeback in New York over the summer, and threatening the purity of New York City's famously clean drinking water.
In summary, I think this amounts to a very good omen about Schneiderman's judgement. So for those of you who are doubting his sensibilities regarding the Big 5 mortgage companies, then this should offer further reason to trust Schneiderman and support his investigation.
Right now, the most important climate issue remains stopping the Keystone XL pipeline. But tarsands and fracking go hand in hand. By stopping that project, we can send a message to the government that people are opposed to unsustainable energy fixes, and demand major investment in green alternatives.
That's all for now. Be safe everyone in Irene's path.