I tried to find a map for Florida that is not ridiculously gerrymandered and friendlier to Democrats. I tried to number the districts after comparable districts today, though the resemblance is weak sometimes, esp. in SE Florida. The two new districts are safe, one for Democrats, one for Republicans.
So on to the maps and the new districts:
CD1 (blue): Jeff Miller (R)
Only minor changes to this Pensacola-based district. 77,4% White, 12,6% Black 4,6% Hispanic. Still 67,5/32,5 McCain (was 67/32). Safe R.
CD2 (green): Steve Southerland (R)
This district loses Gadsden and Leon County and instead stretches down the Gulf Coast. With that, it gets way more Republican. No worries for Southerland in the general election anymore. But the district now includes Hernando County, which is Rep. Nugent’s base. He will have to decide whether to run here, as the district includes large parts of his district, or in the CD5, where he might face a primary challenge from a Lake County Republican. 82,9% White, 9,2% Black, 5,1% Hispanic. Now 62,4/37,6% McCain (was 54/45). Safe R.
CD3 (DarkMagenta): Corrine Brown (D)
The 3rd undergoes some major changes. It still includes the AA parts of Jacksonville, but doesn’t stretch south into Orlando anymore, but instead west to include Tallahassee and Gadsden County. While it is not plurality Black anymore, there is still a significant AA minority which could have significant influence esp. in a Democratic primary. That might keep Rep. Brown from suing against this map, although much of the territory is new to her, so maybe someone will challenge this annoying person in the primary. As it was not AA-majority to begin with, I didn’t consider it VRA-protected. IMHO, it was an illegal racial gerrymander anyway. 52,1% White, 38,9% Black, 5,2% Hispanic. 62/38 Obama (was 73/26). Safe D.
CD4 (red): Ander Crenshaw (R)
This is still a district of the more Republican parts of the Jacksonville-area, though now much more compact. 73,4% White, 12,8% Black, 7,1% Hispanic. 62,4/37,6% McCain (was 61/38). Safe R.
CD5 (yellow): Rich Nugent (R)
Rep. Nugent doesn’t live in this district, his residence and large parts of his former district are now in CD2. The district loses its parts of the Gulf coast and is now Lake and Sumter County-based. 78,9% White, 8,7% Black, 9,6% Hispanic. 56,7/43,3 McCain (was 56/43). Safe R.
CD6 (silver): Cliff Stearns (R)
This district still takes a wild ride through Northern Florida. It sneaks around Alachua County and gets considerably more Republican. 80,9% White, 10,1% Black, 6,1% Hispanic. 66,1/33,1 McCain (was 56/43). Safe R.
CD7 (teal): John Mica (R)
Mica could become the first redistricting victim with this map. His district loses Republican St. Johns County and adds instead Democratic Alachua County. 75,7% White, 13,1% Black, 6,6% Hispanic. 54,8/45,2 Obama (was 53/46 McCain). Toss-up, maybe slight lean D without Mica.
CD8 (yellowgreen): Daniel Webster (R)
Now a more compact district in the Orlando-area, but losing most of the minority-heavy parts. With that, it gets more Republican, but still winnable for a Democrat under the right circumstances. 69,7% White, 8,0% Black, 15,9% Hispanic. 51,4/48,6 McCain (was 53/47 Obama). Lean R.
CD9 (cyan): Gus Bilirakis (R)
Still parts of Pasco, Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties, but it loses most parts of Hillsborough and adds more of Pasco. That doesn’t change the partisan outfit of the district. 83,6% White, 3,3% Black, 9,0% Hispanic. 52,2/47,8 McCain (was 52/47). Likely R.
CD10 (darkorange): Bill Young (R)
Now includes all of St. Petersburg, even the most Democratic parts. The district gets even more Democratic, which might be even too much for Young, who will retire soon anyway. 77,8% White, 10,6% Black, 7,1% Hispanic. 56,4/43,6 Obama (was 51/47). Tossup/Tilt R with Young. Likely D without.
CD11 (chartreuse): Kathy Castor (D)
Loses its part of Pinellas and Manatee County and much of the Bay. Stretches further east. Not quite as Democratic anymore. 49,1% White, 18,7% Black, 26,8% Hispanic. 60,9/39,1 Obama (was 66/33). Safe D.
CD12 (cornflowerblue): Dennis Ross (R)
This district is now more Hillsborough County-based, has less of Polk County. It gets actually more Republican. 69,8% White, 10,2% Black, 16% Hispanic. 54,9/45,1 McCain (was 50/49). Safe R.
CD24 (indigo): Sandra Adams (R)
This district loses parts in the immediate Orland-area and stretches further into Brevard County. It gets slightly more Republican. 75,7% White, 9,2% Black, 11,1% Hispanic. 52,7/47,3 McCain (was 51/49). Likely R.
CD26 (darkblue): New district
Downtown Orlando gets its own district that is heavily Democratic. Majority-minority. 36,2% White, 24,5% Black, 31,7% Hispanic. 67,9/32,1 Obama. Safe D.
CD13 (pink): Vern Buchanan (R)
Still Manatee and Sarasota County-based. 83,5% White, 5,3% Black, 8,8% Hispanic. 51,4/48,6 McCain (was 52/47). Likely R.
CD14 (olive): Connie Mack IV (R)
Most of Charlotte and Lee County, loses Naples and gets a bit less Republican. 77,7% White, 6,5% Black, 13,4% Hispanic. 54/46 McCain (was 57/42). Safe R.
CD15 (deeppink): Bill Posey (R)
Doesn’t change too much, loses parts of Brevard County and stretches into St. Lucie County. Still gets quite a bit more Democratic and should be too competitive for a birther. 63,9% White, 10,8% Black, 21,6% Hispanic. 51,7/48,3 Obama (was 51/48 McCain). Lean R.
CD16 (lime): Tom Rooney (R)
This district gets way more compact and loses the more rural parts of the district. In return, it gains more of Palm Beach County and is therefore considerably more Democratic. Maybe Rooney would run in CD27 instead. 71,1% White, 13,8% Black, 11,8% Hispanic. 53,8/46,2 Obama (was 52/47 McCain). Lean R with Rooney, Tossup/Tilt D without.
CD27 (springgreen): New District
More or less a leftover district in rural southwest Florida behind the coast. The area is mostly only densely populated, so it is a pretty huge district. 65,8% White, 10,8% Black, 20,9% Hispanic. 55,5/44,5 McCain. Safe R.
CD17 (sienna): Frederica Wilson (D)
AA-majority district mostly in Miami-Dade-County, now including the Port of Miami. 16,6% White, 50,1% Black, 26,7% Hispanic. 86,6/13,4 Obama (was 87/12). Safe D.
CD18: (yellow): Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)
Hispanic-majority district including the Keys and the Biscayne Bay. Loses Miami Beach and Coral Gables, now includes Homestead and The Crossings. Ros-Lehtinen would probably run in CD25 instead, Rep. Rivera should be toast against her in the primary. 27,4% White, 12,2% Black, 56,8% Hispanic. 58,8/41.2 Obama (was 51/49). Safe D.
CD19 (slateblue): Ted Deutch (D)
District including Coral Springs, Pompano Beach and Boca Raton. 64,5% White, 14,8% Black, 15,9% Hispanic. 61,4/38,6 Obama (was 65/34). Safe D.
CD20 (cyan): Debbie Wasserman-Schulz (D)
District including Fort Lauderdale and Miami Beach. DWS lives in CD22, so she might run against Allen West in this map. 48,4% White, 23% Black, 24,9% Hispanic. 68,5/31,5 Obama (was 63/36). Safe D.
CD21 (darkslateblue): Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
Compact majority-Hispanic district including Coral Gables and Hialeah. At this point still pretty Republican. The area is so Hispanic, that this compact district almost invites a charge of packing Hispanics. But the districts around are VRA-districts as well, save CD22. 6,8% White, 3,6% Black, 88,4% Hispanic. 54,4/45,6 McCain (was 51/49). Safe R (for now).
CD22 (forestgreen): Allen West (R)
Majority-minority district now centered in Broward County. 41,2% White, 16% Black, 36,6% Hispanic. 63/37 Obama (was 52/48). Safe D.
CD23 (pink): Alcee Hastings (D)
I figured that a 2nd AA-majority district in SE Florida is only possible with a gerrymander, that is not only not VRA-mandated, but more so illegal. I dissolved Hastings’ district (couldn’t happen to a more deserving fella) and created a clean district from Delray Beach to just before West Palm Beach. 59,9% White, 14,6% Black, 21,9% Hispanic. 64,5/35,5 Obama (was 83/17). Safe D.
CD25 (palevioletred): David Rivera (R)
Another majority-Hispanic district from Naples to Cuban neighborhoods in Miami-Dade County. 36,6% White, 2,7% Black, 59% Hispanic. 63,5/36,5 McCain (was 50/49). Safe R.
This makes a 15-10-2 map. What do you think?