French President Nicolas Sarkozy all but threw down the gauntlet at President Obama's feet today, saying, "The 27 countries of the EU must express themselves with one voice" on Palestinian statehood at the U.N.
Translation: he wants a unified "yes" vote by the entire EU at the U.N. come September, a unified opposition to America's obstructionist stance vis-a-vis Palestinian statehood.
Such unity may not be too far off.
Of course, Sarkozy didn't say this explicitly. Instead, he couched his desires in diplomatic language that belied the challenge being issued to the Obama administration: vote "no" on Palestinian statehood at the Security Council and/or the General Assembly, and you may find yourself entirely isolated.
According to Israel's Haaretz, Sarkozy said that:
...he wanted to see a united European Union voice on the issue of Palestinian statehood at next month's United Nations General Assembly and urged the United States to do more for peace.
Translation: he wants the entire EU to vote "yes," and wants the U.S. to reconsider its "no" vote in the face of such unified opposition.
Sarkozy also said:
...the world can not continue to leave the Israel-Palestinian peace process frozen while the Arab Spring forces change elsewhere in the region.
Translation: the status quo cannot continue, and must be rattled by a U.N. vote that establishes international recognition for Palestinian statehood.
Sarkozy also said:
"The role of the U.S. is uncontested and irreplaceable, but everybody sees that it is not enough. We have to widen the circle of negotiation, think of the role and pertinence of the quartet."
Translation: somebody else must step in and break the U.S. monopoly on directing negotiations in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Who is that someone: the Quartet and, more broadly, the EU.
Now, one might ask, "Who cares what Sarkozy says?" Or, perhaps, "Who cares if the U.S. is the only Western country voting against Palestinian statehood at the U.N.?"
After all, America has stood alone before in giving Israel diplomatic cover at the U.N. – diplomatic cover that has sometimes been (in my opinion) justified, and in other cases has been entirely ridiculous.
However, the vote this Fall at the U.N. on the question of Palestinian statehood – whether that vote happens in the Security Council and the General Assembly, or just in the General Assembly – will be one of the most-watched and most widely covered U.N. votes in recent memory.
The entire world will be watching. Closely.
For this reason, U.S. isolation on the issue will stand out starkly, and will do much to damage its already-shaky standing in the Arab world.
As it stands, only five Western nations have pledged to vote against recognition of a Palestinian state: Italy, Germany, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands and the United States.
Of those five countries, which nation stands alone in refusing to consider changing its voting stance if the Palestinians include language indicating a continued commitment to peace talks with Israel in its U.N. bid? The United States.
Indications are that the Palestinians are going to do everything they can to make Italy, Germany, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands comfortable with either voting for Palestinian statehood or abstaining.
And if that happens, if indeed the entire EU votes in a unified fashion, or at least is unified in not casting a "no" vote, such a situation may be diplomatically untenable for the Obama administration.
And there are more indications today that such a situation is where we are headed. Again from Haaretz:
Today, the EU moved closer to a trade deal with the Palestinian Authority after unanimous backing from European lawmakers to fully open markets to farm and fish products from the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
The 27-0 vote by the European Parliament's international trade committee paves the way for full parliamentary approval for a deal later this year, signalling EU support for the PA as it prepares for its statehood bid next month.
The entire EU is opening trade to the PA. To me, this is a clear signal of what is to come.
How the Obama administration responds will do much to determine not only the fate of Palestinian statehood, but the fate of U.S. - EU relations on foreign policy matters in the Middle East as well.
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Author's Note: While some in the comments dismiss this move by Sarkozy as mere posturing, given that a U.S. veto is almost certain, what many are missing is that such a reality has not stopped those within the EU and the Quartet from trying to soften America's position.
And yesterday, there was this article in Haaretz, entitled "New Palestinian strategy document will make it difficult for US to oppose UN vote."
From the article, in reference to the strategy document being drafted by Palestinians for its UN statehood push, is this:
This version will make it difficult for the United States and the Marshall Islands, and even for Israel, to explain their votes against the proposal. Instead of recognizing Palestine within the 1967 borders, it will state that the permanent borders will be determined in negotiations with Israel based on the borders of June 4, 1967.